Market Movers: June 2023

Barkha Rani Jun 29, 2023
Headline image for Market Movers: June 2023

The TSE Index was down 3.1% for the monthly period ended June 8th, 2023, up marginally YTD and down some 3% over 52 weeks. Canadian GDP growth in the first quarter of 2023 was strong at 3.1% and some 41,000 employees were added in April.  Consumer spending remained strong overall, although discretionary spending is dropping. Annual CPI fell to 4.4%, house sales were up a surprising 11% and average house prices edged up too.  Canada’s surging population growth likely underpins these results. In early June the BOC hiked their base rate 25 bps to 4.75% arguing that core inflation remains above target, and it seems likely that other central banks will follow suit.  The world continues in some turmoil: China appears to be slowing; the Ukrainian counter-offensive must be close; former President Trump has now been indicted twice. With this background, the following Table presents the list of top and bottom performers during the monthly period ending June 8th, 2023.

 

 

Absolute Software Corp

The top performer for the monthly period ended June 8, 2023, was Absolute Software (ABST) whose stock was up 32.15%. This stock has jumped around: it was no. 2 performer in August and September 2022 and worst in November 2022 and 2nd worst in February 2023. Its stock price started out 2023 above $15, dropped to a low of $10.09 in mid-February and took off on May 11th to $15.34.

ABST is a leading provider of self-healing endpoint and secure access solutions delivering truly resilient Zero Trust for today’s distributed workforces. This involves the only undeletable defense platform embedded in more than 600,000 devices, which help some 20,000 customers protect against the escalating threat of ransomware and malicious attacks. The announcement by press release on May 11, 2023, that agreement had been reached to accept a takeover offer of US$11.50 per share, in cash from Crossover Capital Partners LLP clearly was the reason for the rise of the stock price during the monthly period.

 

Acuity Ads Holdings Inc

The second-best performer was Acuity Ads Holdings (ILLM) whose stock was up 18.62% for the monthly period ended June 8, 2023, and 33.23% for one year. This stock catapulted to a high of more than $32 on Feb 15, 2021, and dropped steadily to an interim low of $2.76 in early March 2022 and has knocked around the current level since. It should be noted that this company underwent a change of symbols from AT formerly which was the 2nd worst performer in December.

ILLM is a technology company that enables marketers to connect intelligently with audiences across video, mobile, social, and online display advertising campaigns. Its Programmatic Marketing Platform, powered by proprietary machine learning technology, is at the core of its business, accompanied by patented solutions for analytics-led video and mobile targeting that leverages data. It allows advertisers to manage their purchasing of online display advertising in real-time using programmatic ad buying, a method of buying online display advertising in which ad spots (called impressions) are released in an auction that occurs in milliseconds. On May 11, 2023, results for the first quarter of 2023 were announced: Revenues at $26.5 million were up 11.3%; gross profit at $12.5 million was up 4.7%; expenses at $16.6 million were up 16.1% and net loss at $3.6 million ($0.06 per share) improved from a loss of $4.3 million ($0.07 per share).; cash on hand was $80.2 million. These results, together with such encouragement as was delivered in the webcast, presumably led to the sharp increase in the stock price during the following week to $2.43 on May 18, from which it declined to the recent close.

 

Trisura Group LTD

The third best performer was Trisura Group (TSU) whose stock was up 17.32% for the monthly period ended June 8, 2023, but down 33.23% over the past year. The stock peaked at $46.98 in mid-December 2022 and subsequently fell to be the worst performer in January 2023 and later to $29.58 on May 4th from which it rose to $37.25 at the close. It is a specialty insurance provider operating in the surety, risk solutions, corporate insurance, fronting, and reinsurance segments of the market in the ISA and Canada.

Results were announced May 11th:  Insurance revenue at $639.1 million was up 58.3% over the comparable prior period 1 year ago, primarily due to an increase of 70.1% in US Fronting operations to $459.3 million; net investment income at $10.7 million was up 150%; but net income was $14 million ($0.30 per share) down 40.1%, primarily due to losses on the run-off of a US program. TSU easily meets all regulatory capital tests, has surplus cash, and an undrawn $50 million revolving credit facility. Long tail liabilities represent an ongoing risk in this business.

 

NFI Group Inc

The 3rd worst performer in the monthly period ending June 8, 2023, was NFI Group Inc (NFI) whose stock was down 13.62 % for the monthly period and 30.65% for one year. The stock peaked in mid-august 2022 at $14.15, sank to a low of $7.10 by mid-April 2023, and rose again on May 8 to $10.72. NFI is primarily a bus manufacturer with an offering that includes zero-emission vehicles (ZMB), charging infrastructure installations, telematics, and full parts and service aftermarket support.

Results for the 1st quarter of 2023 were announced on May 4th: Revenues at $524.4 million were up 14.2% over the prior comparable period. The net loss however at $46 million was 65.5% worse than the prior period; the adjusted net loss improved by 7.6%; the adjusted EBITDA was a positive $7.4 million. While these results might be viewed as decent, the subsequent announcement of a comprehensive financing plan likely did more to buttress the stock price. The plan called for a reduction in the credit facility of some $239 million to be replaced by $150 million of common stock (private placement) and a second-tier debt issue. An underwritten issue of $125 million of subscription receipts at $8.25 each (convertible to one common share) was completed on June 6th. Demand continues to be strong, but getting expenses under control seems difficult. However, the new financing should give management time to do what is required.

 

Ag Growth Inc

The 2nd worst performer was Ag Growth Industries (AFN) whose stock was down 14.28% on the monthly period ended June 8th, but up 58.38% over the past year. The stock began a year ago in the low $30s, climbed to a high of $61.90 in early March 2023, and then fell to $50.56 at the end of the period.

AFN is a leading provider of the equipment and solutions required to support the efficient storage, transport, and processing of food globally. It has manufacturing facilities in Canada, the United States, Brazil, India, France, and Italy and distributes its product worldwide. Record results for the first quarter of 2023 were announced on May 8, 2023: Revenues at $347 million were up 19%, and adjusted EBITDA at $48 million was up 16%; the order book was up 7%. The net debt leverage ratio dropped to 3.6 times on its way to 3 times according to management. Guidance for the full year 2023 for adjusted EBITDA was lifted to $265 million.

 

Enthusiast Gaming Holdings Inc

The worst performer for the monthly period was Enthusiast Gaming Holdings (EGLX) whose stock was down 19.7% and 81.9% for the past year. The stock has fallen from a high in mid-June 2022 of $2.98 to $0.57 on June 8, 2023, turning up as the worst performer for the monthly period on three previous periods in the last year. At this price, it is in danger of losing its listing on the NASDAQ exchange. The new CEO, who joined on March 1, 2023, has his hands full.

EGLX is building the largest media platform for video game and esports fans to connect and engage worldwide. Through its proprietary mix of digital media and entertainment assets, it has built a vast network of like-minded communities to deliver the ultimate fan experience. This vertically integrated media platform engages a diverse, youthful, and affluent audience who are watching, reading, and consuming gaming content. Results for the first quarter of 2023 were announced on May 15, 2023: Revenue at $24.9 million was down 9.1% due to a 15% decline in Media and Content Segment; Gross profit however at $16.8 million was up 24% and the net loss was reduced to $8.7 million, or by 28.7%. Debt maturity was extended by a year and cash on hand was $3.5 million. The new CEO, Nick Brien noted that the rapid transformation from a collection of entrepreneurial assets to an enterprise-scale platform company built around a single technology stack is underway. He went on to say that the first quarter 2023 results demonstrate the significant upside potential of our business.

 

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Take Care,

5i Research Team Signature

Disclosure: The analyst(s) responsible for this report do not have a financial or other interest in the securities mentioned.

 

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