Q: Hi 5i: Just a comment related to recent questions about the relative merits of various Canadian banks. I have often heard the view expressed that 'the banks all run together,' implying that it doesn’t matter too much which one an investor selects to own. I have also heard suggested the strategy of ‘buying the laggard,’ on the theory that in time it will catch up to the group and thus provide a better return over that timeframe. Recently I took the time to put the big five Cdn banks on the same chart to compare their stock performance over a variety of time periods. I was a bit surprised by the results. Instead of converging over the longer time periods, their performance actually diverges significantly, though all provided fairly decent positive returns. The specific results (as of a couple of weeks ago) included the following:
1. Best over the past 3 months: BMO
2. Best over the past 6 months: BMO
3. Best over the past 1 year: CM
4. Best over the past 3 years: RY
5. Best over the past 5 years: TD
6. Best over the past 10 years: RY
The difference over the 10 year period was quite significant. RY’s price appreciation was the leader at over 160%, followed pretty closely by TD at about 150%. BNS was in the middle of the pack at almost 100% and BMO and CM were both under 60% appreciation. Adding the dividends into the mix might close the gap slightly from a total return perspective but the laggards would still be well behind the leaders over the 10 year time frame. (All presuming the charting function I was using was getting correct data and working properly.) Cheers!
1. Best over the past 3 months: BMO
2. Best over the past 6 months: BMO
3. Best over the past 1 year: CM
4. Best over the past 3 years: RY
5. Best over the past 5 years: TD
6. Best over the past 10 years: RY
The difference over the 10 year period was quite significant. RY’s price appreciation was the leader at over 160%, followed pretty closely by TD at about 150%. BNS was in the middle of the pack at almost 100% and BMO and CM were both under 60% appreciation. Adding the dividends into the mix might close the gap slightly from a total return perspective but the laggards would still be well behind the leaders over the 10 year time frame. (All presuming the charting function I was using was getting correct data and working properly.) Cheers!