Investment Q&A

Q: Hey Team,

CSX will be reporting this coming Tuesday. On doing some research this is what is expected...

4% increase in sales to $3.13B

$0.47 earnings per share which is a minimal 2% gain reported same 1/4 last yr

questions...

is this what you have found?

if this is accurate, what would you expect share price to do after the reporting?

and finally, would you consider CSX a sell, hold or buy at this time?

Thanks for all you do

Gord

Q: tou Is it abuy?

Q: This looks to be caught in the falling of energy shares in the past couple of months. It pays a high dividend - is it worth accumulating here? Thanks a lot!

Q: what's your opinion of RY compared to BNS and TD? I believe RY has outperformed in share price over the last 10 years compared to the other banks.

Q: Hi 5i: There have been a lot of questions recently regarding oil producers and the apparently ongoing declines in their share prices. It seems people have been having trouble getting their bearings and are coming simultaneously to the questions ‘should I be buying now?’ and ‘should I be selling and exiting the sector?’ With the same thoughts in mind I found it useful recently to look at the 5-yr chart on the WTI oil price. Outside of their own operational issues, successful producers rise and fall with the oil price. The path of the oil price since a trough valuation on May 17, 2010 can be described in terms of the following series of upward “runs” and downward “slides.” Each run or slide represents at least a $15 change in the price of oil and I was interested in how long each move lasted and the magnitude of the price change in each case. This is what the chart says in those terms:
• May 17/2010 to May 2/2011 (nearly 1 year duration) – Trough to Peak run from approximately $70 to $114
• May 2/2011 to Oct 3/2011 (5 months duration) – Peak to Trough slide from $114 to $74
• Oct 3/2011 to February 27/2012 (5 months duration) – Trough to Peak run from $74 to $110
• Feb 27/2012 to June 18/2012 (4 months duration) – Peak to Trough slide from $110 to $77
• June 18/2012 to Sept 10/2012 (3 months duration) – Trough to Peak run from $77 to $100
• Sept 10/2012 Oct 29/2012 (1.5 months duration) – Peak to Trough slide from $100 to $85
• Oct29/2012 to Sept 2/2013 (10 months duration) – Trough to Peak run from to $85 to $110
• Sept 2/2013 to Jan 6/2014 (4 months duration) – Peak to Trough slide from $110 to $91
• Jan 6/2014 to June 16/2014 (5 months duration) – Trough to Peak run from $91 to $107
• June 16/2014 to Oct 10*/2014 (4 months duration – * still going) – Peak to Trough slide from $107 to $85

Of course one has to consider that past patterns do not guarantee future paths and for one reason or another ‘it might be different this time.’ But that aside, a number of observations may be made. In each case the next significant move in the opposite direction followed immediately on the heels of the prior one. The longest slide was about 5 months long. The present slide is nearly 4 months long already, about the same duration as two of the other four slides in the past 5 years. So from that perspective what we are presently experiencing is nothing out of the ordinary and each past similar instance has resolved into a nice run to the upside. Unless it is different this time, 4 months of sliding puts us much nearer to the end of the slide than to the beginning.

In dollar values, the magnitudes of the past slides are (oldest to most recent): $40, $33, $15, and $19. The present move is $22, so far. Again, unless something makes this time different, the present slide will likely end with an intraday trough price somewhere between the present $85 and the previous lowest lows of $74. Again, but in dollar terms this time, that would put us closer to the end of the move than to the beginning.

Overall, I’d note that this particular slide has so far shown us nothing out of the ordinary and for that it should provide us no reason to panic. No good quality producer is put in danger of failing as a business enterprise by virtue of a short term commodity price slide. But it may be important to stress “good quality” in that observation. On the other hand, the shares of even the best quality oil producers have become significantly cheaper during the present slide. Whenever similar share price declines have occurred in the past five years, it has provided a good opportunity to add high quality producers to one’s portfolio (and some very nice ‘Yield on Cost’ numbers as well).

Hope that’s useful to someone!

Q: Hi team, a quick comment first: For some new investors out there I have been through many corrections since going it alone without a broker. Just hold tight, collect dividends, DRIP what you can, good companies will survive. My question is that I have some cash on hand and I am giving some serious looks at buying some HEX for the dividend, maybe in a week or so. Time to buy when everyone else is selling, thoughts? Thanks.

Q: Hello,
If I buy an ETF such as XIU now, in the latter part of 2014,
I will get only the December dividend payment. Will I, however get a 2014 tax slip showing all the distributions for the entire year?
If so, at what date in December do I have to sell the ETF to avoid getting this tax slip?
Do these rules also hold true for ETFs held in the US such as EWU or VGK?
Thanks for your help.

Q: I have a question to ask. With the current sell off in the market do you think it is a good time to buy some of the companies you recommend. In my portfolio I have a lot gold and silver stocks which I have had for sometime and are down quite a bit. What is you thoughts on the gold and silver market at this current time. Do you think it is best to diversify. I look forward to your response.

Q: What is your opinion of this stock for an investment of a year from now.
..
Thanks Ralph

Q: Now that the market is correcting significantly, is it prudent to pledge one's shares in Contrans to the current offer, on the theory that if the deal does not go through, the price will surely drop to ?? and this loss can be prevented by taking the offer and using the cash to buy something else at a bargain price? It surely is the case that no other, richer, offer will materialize in this market. I'd appreciate your present view on this basically disappointing saga.
Thanks, Bob.

Q: Advice please on weathering this first time correction or worse for a rookie DYI investor (not my day job.)

I appreciate your calming replies about the fundamentals of the economy and the companies you comment on.

I have made only a total of 6 or 7 buys this calendar year and 1 good buy GWO offsets a few poorly timed purchases HSE, TA, SGY AND WCP

IN TOTAL IF I SOLD IT ALL, I would break even today, bearing in mind this is all together only 5 to 10 % of portfolio, would you suggest

getting rid of it all and waiting 30 days (by the way if I sold for a loss today when is the 30 day limit for claiming a capital loss? )

OR waiting things out because my selections above are fundamentally sound and I have a long time horizon (> 10 yrs )

thank you for the support !

Q: DO you think that the auto parts suppliers,in spite of Europe,are a good buy at this time?

Q: This security is down about 12% today. I am unable to find any news on the stock. Do you know the reason for the drop? Thank You.

Q: I have read with interest how many of the comments during this downturn refer to selling positions now. It is very important for investors to realize and remember, that it is during these downturns that the "smart money" begins to buy, not sell; perhaps not today, but soon. A 10% correction will take the TSX to around 13150, the DOW to 15600 and the S&P to 1800 and that is when there will be bargains to be had. Don't sell during these times; re balance your equities and fixed income and get your cash back in...just a thought :)

Q: Why is it selling off. Should I sit tight if I own it. Thank you.

Q: Hi..is there any real different between "The Intertain Group" and Amaya, would Amaya buy them out because they are a competitor ?? Thanks.

Q: On Oct 6 James asked if it is a good idea to hold dividend stocks in an Rsp.
Do you agree that if a senior's OAS is clawed back then he should hold dividend stocks in a Tfsa and or a Rsp in order to reduce the clawback?

Q: I am in the process of rebalancing my portfolio to better match my target sector allocation. I am currently underweight in both healthcare and utilities. My only holding in healthcare is the US ETF (XLV), and my only utility holding is Brookfield Renewable (BEP.UN). Can you suggest one or two other names in each of these sectors that you would recommend for new buying at this time. In the Utility space I would prefer something other than a power producer since I already hold Brookfield. Could Telus (which I don’t own) be considered similar to a utility? My goal would be moderate growth with a long (several year) time horizon but in particular I like companies that are likely to hold up better than their peers in the event of a market downturn.
Steven

Q: With the U.S. comments on becoming self sufficient on energy the NEW supply is going to come from shale which has a huge demand on water .The Ogala Aqua for the largest in the US has been depleted down to 20 per cent this depletion took place in the last 20 years a result of growing vast amounts of subsidized corn for ethonal production .
My opinion is that the jury is still out on fracing and I am not prepared to write off Canaidian oil and gas as a major supplier to the U.S. market.
Kind regards Stan

Q: https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=http://business.financialpost.com/2014/10/09/peter-foster-look-whos-demonizing-canadian-oil/&ct=ga&cd=CAEYBCoUMTM4MzI4MDkyMTIyODQ5NTU3NDUyGTlkYWUyYWQxMjY0MDFlY2M6Y2E6ZW46Q0E&usg=AFQjCNGwShKkotWE0qYczudb26li4x9bCQ

Mr. Hodson, is the movement mentioned above likely to hurt seriously the oil sands companies referred to ?