Q: Hi 5i team,
I have applied the theory of letting the winners run in the BOS case since the late 1990's with great success. I can appreciate their journey from a very small cap to today, the stability of management, the limited share issuance, the dividend introduction and growth, the managed balance sheet, etc. as discussed in our question and answer of December 22nd, 2014.
I have two issues: the new level of their forward P/E and the weight in my portfolio. I am more used to a forward P/E multiple between 10x and 12x versus 25x (assumption of eps = 0,96 over the next 12 months). Is the 2015 version of BOS worth a P/E multiple twice as high as a few years ago? Even if this is the case, I now see less upside than in the past.
I used to see BOS as a solid/under-the-radar eps growth story with great multiple expansion potential. Now, BOS a grown up, and I see BOS as a solid eps growth story only, a state that could last for several years. I feel that BOS's role in my portfolio has changed a little bit. I feel I need to use some of this capital to prepare for the next growth phase of my portfolio.
For the second time over the last 15 or so years, I am tempted to sell a portion of my BOS's shares to decrease current weighting now reaching the mid-teens. No tax consideration, as the shares are in my RRSP. My alternative uses for this capital would be: decrease my leverage (exchange in kind with my cash account), increase dry powder, and some cherry picking buying of companies on discount sale (CXI, DHX.B, GUD, ?) which currently share some of the return upside BOS use to have (eps growth, and potential multiple expansion). Do you agree with this plan? Any other suggestions?
Thank you for your great advice, Eric
I have applied the theory of letting the winners run in the BOS case since the late 1990's with great success. I can appreciate their journey from a very small cap to today, the stability of management, the limited share issuance, the dividend introduction and growth, the managed balance sheet, etc. as discussed in our question and answer of December 22nd, 2014.
I have two issues: the new level of their forward P/E and the weight in my portfolio. I am more used to a forward P/E multiple between 10x and 12x versus 25x (assumption of eps = 0,96 over the next 12 months). Is the 2015 version of BOS worth a P/E multiple twice as high as a few years ago? Even if this is the case, I now see less upside than in the past.
I used to see BOS as a solid/under-the-radar eps growth story with great multiple expansion potential. Now, BOS a grown up, and I see BOS as a solid eps growth story only, a state that could last for several years. I feel that BOS's role in my portfolio has changed a little bit. I feel I need to use some of this capital to prepare for the next growth phase of my portfolio.
For the second time over the last 15 or so years, I am tempted to sell a portion of my BOS's shares to decrease current weighting now reaching the mid-teens. No tax consideration, as the shares are in my RRSP. My alternative uses for this capital would be: decrease my leverage (exchange in kind with my cash account), increase dry powder, and some cherry picking buying of companies on discount sale (CXI, DHX.B, GUD, ?) which currently share some of the return upside BOS use to have (eps growth, and potential multiple expansion). Do you agree with this plan? Any other suggestions?
Thank you for your great advice, Eric