Q: From Oct. 3 : Q: A headline article in Globe and mail " Why it feels like another financial crisis ----" gives a current p/e for the tsx of 23.6 Your macroeconomic report has it at 17. Is this a difference between trailing and forward earnings or am I missing something?/
5i Research Answer:
There is a difference between current and forward earnings multiples. For example, based on data from Thomson Reuters, the current P/E for the TSX is 17.2x and the forward P/E shows 16.7x. Some publishings do not distinguish between forward and current when reporting P/E so one may see differences from time to time. However, the P/E quoted by the Globe looks to be high regardless of the timing perspective. Different services also seem to use different sources of estimates; we do see 23X on some other services, but simply defaulted to Thomson here.
It seems to me that the difference between 17 and 23 is a significant distinction and would indicate the TSX is in overbought territory if the latter is true. A subsequent article in ROB on Oct 4 produced a chart (source Bloomberg) showing the PE ratio for the TSX "Composite" at 23.5 and the highest in 14 years with the widest gap with the US since 2009. Is it possible 5i Research data from Thomson Reuters is utilizing the smaller sample from the TSX "60" or another index to arrive at 17X?
How to know what the true number is for sure?
5i Research Answer:
There is a difference between current and forward earnings multiples. For example, based on data from Thomson Reuters, the current P/E for the TSX is 17.2x and the forward P/E shows 16.7x. Some publishings do not distinguish between forward and current when reporting P/E so one may see differences from time to time. However, the P/E quoted by the Globe looks to be high regardless of the timing perspective. Different services also seem to use different sources of estimates; we do see 23X on some other services, but simply defaulted to Thomson here.
It seems to me that the difference between 17 and 23 is a significant distinction and would indicate the TSX is in overbought territory if the latter is true. A subsequent article in ROB on Oct 4 produced a chart (source Bloomberg) showing the PE ratio for the TSX "Composite" at 23.5 and the highest in 14 years with the widest gap with the US since 2009. Is it possible 5i Research data from Thomson Reuters is utilizing the smaller sample from the TSX "60" or another index to arrive at 17X?
How to know what the true number is for sure?