Q: Hi Peter, Ryan and all,
I am a rational DIY investor who adheres to the diversity mantra but I am considering a slightly radical move. Here's the thesis, which is about energy: at the beginning of the year my oil and gas exposure - 6 stocks, all solid choices - was already on the light side at about 8% of my portfolio. Just shy of 1/4 through the year they are down a cumulative 10% (9% including dividends). My thinking is that:
a) global demand will be flat-ish, as non renewable energy sources gradually gain strength, off setting increasing demands elsewhere.
b) it's somewhat amazing that the OPEC production cut is holding but I'm not confident that it will long term, which could lead to the spigots being turned on full blast again.
c) technological gains mean a decreasing cost to extract every last drop of oil, as evidenced by the Americans in the Permian Basin and elsewhere.
Bottom line is I'm not buying the global oil inventory coming into balance scenario meaning further pressure on prices. That 8% of my portfolio figure is now 7.1% and dropping. Contrary to oil I have been knocking it out of the park on the tech side - 10% of the portfolio - with NVDA, SHOP, KXS, OTEX and AT and am considering getting right out of energy and deploying that 7% into tech and healthcare.
I am well represented in all other sectors except materials - don't like the volatility - so would then be skipping two sectors.
I know this is a deeply personal investing decision but your thoughts are appreciated conceptually.
Thanks!
I am a rational DIY investor who adheres to the diversity mantra but I am considering a slightly radical move. Here's the thesis, which is about energy: at the beginning of the year my oil and gas exposure - 6 stocks, all solid choices - was already on the light side at about 8% of my portfolio. Just shy of 1/4 through the year they are down a cumulative 10% (9% including dividends). My thinking is that:
a) global demand will be flat-ish, as non renewable energy sources gradually gain strength, off setting increasing demands elsewhere.
b) it's somewhat amazing that the OPEC production cut is holding but I'm not confident that it will long term, which could lead to the spigots being turned on full blast again.
c) technological gains mean a decreasing cost to extract every last drop of oil, as evidenced by the Americans in the Permian Basin and elsewhere.
Bottom line is I'm not buying the global oil inventory coming into balance scenario meaning further pressure on prices. That 8% of my portfolio figure is now 7.1% and dropping. Contrary to oil I have been knocking it out of the park on the tech side - 10% of the portfolio - with NVDA, SHOP, KXS, OTEX and AT and am considering getting right out of energy and deploying that 7% into tech and healthcare.
I am well represented in all other sectors except materials - don't like the volatility - so would then be skipping two sectors.
I know this is a deeply personal investing decision but your thoughts are appreciated conceptually.
Thanks!