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Investment Q&A

Not investment advice or solicitation to buy/sell securities. Do your own due diligence and/or consult an advisor.

Q: A member just asked about CGX...maybe this is the reason...from TD:

Yesterday afternoon, it was confirmed that Cineworld Group plc (CINE-LN, not rated) is currently engaged in discussions about a possible all-cash acquisition of Regal Entertainment Group (RGC-US, not rated), the No. 2 U.S. exhibitor, at a price of US$23 per share, or ~US$3.6bln (~US$5.9bln including debt).
However, no agreement has been reached.
Impact: SLIGHTLY POSITIVE
A US$23 per share purchase price is a 26% premium to Monday's closing price, but a 44% premium from a week ago. This equates to ~9.0x and ~22.0x 2018 consensus EBITDA and EPS, respectively. Implications for CGX include:
■ The valuation being implied for Regal gives us confidence in the ~10.1x we are applying to CGX's theatre segment within our SOTP calculation. CGX is currently trading at 9.7x our 2018 EBITDA estimate, and our current $47.00 target price is based on an 11.0x EV/EBITDA multiple applied to our consolidated EBITDA estimate for the 12 months ending September 2019.
■ We do not believe that CGX is currently for sale; however, applying Regal's takeover valuation plus the historical 3.0x-4.0x multiple point premium to CGX's 2018 EBITDA suggests that CGX could be worth $50-$55 in a takeout.
However, given its market share, mix of high-margin businesses, and strong earnings profile, we believe that this range would be the floor price.
■ The selloff in CGX shares has been overdone, exacerbated by increasing investor short positions over the past few months. We believe that industry M&A — which could be a consequence of what is perceived to be the diminishing influence exhibitors wield over the major studios — should provide short-term support for the share price. Over the long term, we believe that valuation will start rising once it becomes more evident that Cineplex's ongoing diversification initiatives are lessening its dependence on Hollywood content and when there is greater clarity surrounding the impact of Premium Video on Demand (PVOD). We expect these to become clearer closer to 2019.
Post if you think appropriate.
Read Answer Asked by Silvia on November 29, 2017
Q: Well, 14 months since my previous Q on CSO and it seems like there is a positive trend (after 3 years of negative eps the latest 3 qtrs were positive). But has it been solely due to the price of (mostly) met coal, or do you think their operations have improved (any indication that they are besting some of their competitors)?
The management commentary sounded quite positive - but that's what I wanted to hear - so I'm interested a more critical take.
Read Answer Asked by Peter on November 29, 2017
Q: In a cash account, I have 18% loss on this. I don't need this money for now. For growth or growth with torque where would you go. Or I should keep it.
Thanks.
Read Answer Asked by francois on November 29, 2017
Q: Good Afternoon - The resto royalties seem to have lagged this year. What are your thoughts in general and could you please rank the four listed here. Thanks.
Read Answer Asked by Kirk on November 29, 2017
Q: I am looking to add to either my Utilities or Industrial's.

My industrial weighting for Industrial is 11.8% which might be a bit light, and I can add to CAE or NFI.

Or,

Add to my Utilities is also quite low at 4%. I have BEP and ENB there. Should I add to ENB at this time?

As always thanks for the great advice

Lastly, the only REIT I have is a Small Position in Chartwell. Which i have put in Healthcare. I do have Financials at close to 15%, but should I look at my home as a big investment in real estate and not worry about it?
Read Answer Asked by Colin on November 29, 2017
Q: I recently bought ZCL based on 5i recommendation. Then after a missed quarter you drop ZCL from the growth portfolio, so I'm left holding a stock you no longer follow.
However for GUD you continue to recommend quarter after quarter based on no news or developments and a declining stock price?
Read Answer Asked by Curtis on November 29, 2017
Q: We own approximately 4000 shares in ALC composing about 2% of our portfolio. We have held the shares for a number of years and have certainly experienced the ups and lately downs of any commodity based stock - even though the company is supposed to be in the industrial sector. We are currently negative on the stock but their fortunes seem to be improving as the price of iron ore seems to have stabilized. Of course it is hard to trade the stock when times are bad since they are such a thin trader. A "haircut" is a certainty if one really wanted out. Now ALC seems to be offering to buy back shares through a "Dutch Auction". Since the buy back will be prorated I suppose we won't be able to tender all our shares. I don't really mind that we are negative since I like the dividend and 2018 may bring better times. (The mantra of any "buy and hold" investor)! My guess is that management thinks that 2018 will also see improving revenue. I wouldn't characterize the offer as "low ball", I believe it to be fair but maybe 12 months too late to really be taken up. ALC doesn't have much float so they may have trouble taking up too much stock. Any float they do take up will make the stock even more of a thin trader than it was previously. If we were to tender I would tend to purchase SQM as a replacement even though the dividend is lower. Our material sector exposure is on the low side - just AEM having a 2.5% weighting. Our industrial sector weighting is 23% (NFI, WSP, SIS, MAXR, LGT.B and ALC).
Any suggestions on what to do? If you think we should consider taking up the offer what ask price should we go in at? The ask needs to be between $13.80 and $14.75. If we go in at $13.80 do you think there is a chance we could sell all our stock? I realize this is a complex question so please deduct as many credits as you think appropriate.
Thanks
Jim
Read Answer Asked by James on November 29, 2017
Q: I have more of an overall financial question, that you may be able to answer.

I own my own business and have been thinking about buying a building in the near future, but I have a few concerns.

Many business people I talk with state that buying the building they were operating in as the best investment they made, or I talk with others that have regrets that they didn't.

What is a better investment: Stocks or Real Estate?

To buy a building I may have to liquidate my portfolio as it would be a major purchase. I would then have a My House, My Business, and a Building in Calgary. That seems like a lot of eggs in one basket if the Economy Slows or if Oil is no longer needed. ( I know this is a long ways down the road, but is a possibility)

Can I assume if the Lease Rate matches the Interest Rate Payments on a Commercial Mortgage that you should look into commercial real estate as you aren't losing anything? If this was the case less money would be put into a portfolio as some would have to go towards paying down the mortgage?

I know this isn't a regular stock specific question, but I figure with your knowledge you may have a good advice. I also am leaving this public as I believe many others on your site may have similar thoughts.

Thanks.
Read Answer Asked by Colin on November 29, 2017
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