Q: I would like to thank Paul L for his reference on August 10th to a Seeking Alpha article about factor investing. I have since read both the Seeking Alpha article and the associated book "Your Complete Guide to Factor-Based Investing" by Andrew Berkin and Larry Swedroe.
This book contains historical charts which plot the premiums over time for the main factors (i.e. market beta, size, value, momentum, profitability and quality). Based on these charts, it appears that factors work for several years before their success switches to its opposite factor (e.g. value outperforms for a number of years, then there is a switch, and growth outperforms). Given that the factors outperform for a number of years, the charts can be viewed as long-term trend charts. On these long-term charts, it appears fairly easy to see when the switchover takes place. Unfortunately, the charts in the book only cover the period of 1927 to 2015.
Do you know where I can find updated chart information which clearly shows factor premiums? I would like to understand which factors are "working" now, and where they are in the cycle so that I can properly position for any switchover. For example, although value and size outperformed in the decade of 2000, for the last several years, large US growth firms are dominant. On a long term factor chart, based on historicals, it may be possible to predict when the switchover will take place again, and a portfolio should be positioned for small, value stocks.
Do you agree with this approach? Do you know where I can find this information?
Thank you for this excellent service.
This book contains historical charts which plot the premiums over time for the main factors (i.e. market beta, size, value, momentum, profitability and quality). Based on these charts, it appears that factors work for several years before their success switches to its opposite factor (e.g. value outperforms for a number of years, then there is a switch, and growth outperforms). Given that the factors outperform for a number of years, the charts can be viewed as long-term trend charts. On these long-term charts, it appears fairly easy to see when the switchover takes place. Unfortunately, the charts in the book only cover the period of 1927 to 2015.
Do you know where I can find updated chart information which clearly shows factor premiums? I would like to understand which factors are "working" now, and where they are in the cycle so that I can properly position for any switchover. For example, although value and size outperformed in the decade of 2000, for the last several years, large US growth firms are dominant. On a long term factor chart, based on historicals, it may be possible to predict when the switchover will take place again, and a portfolio should be positioned for small, value stocks.
Do you agree with this approach? Do you know where I can find this information?
Thank you for this excellent service.
