Q: It seems all the Canadian banks are doing well - huge profits, reversing loan-losses, cash piles and talk of boosting dividends.
Is a lot of this profit due to the increasing real-estate mortgages being issued that have an implicit government backstop? I view this as a form of moral hazard - the banks know the government has their back so continue to lend despite worsening lending metrics like income to home price etc.
Do you see any risk from all the non-house owners in the country putting pressure on the government to reign in bank profits, as it seems only the 'rich' home owners are benefitting? Or would the banks themselves curtail lending as home prices continue to appreciate?
I know that the Canadian residential real estate market if a primary driver of our economic gains nowadays but at some point, the policital winds may shift.
What signals related to Canadian housing would you look for to make you want to reduce your exposure to Canadian banks?
Is a lot of this profit due to the increasing real-estate mortgages being issued that have an implicit government backstop? I view this as a form of moral hazard - the banks know the government has their back so continue to lend despite worsening lending metrics like income to home price etc.
Do you see any risk from all the non-house owners in the country putting pressure on the government to reign in bank profits, as it seems only the 'rich' home owners are benefitting? Or would the banks themselves curtail lending as home prices continue to appreciate?
I know that the Canadian residential real estate market if a primary driver of our economic gains nowadays but at some point, the policital winds may shift.
What signals related to Canadian housing would you look for to make you want to reduce your exposure to Canadian banks?