Q: On the question of US inflation, I'm a bit puzzled as to why more isn't made in the media of the recent monthly cpi data and that instead the focus seems to be on the annual cpi for the last 12 mos.
The following are the percentage changes for US CPI for each of the 12 mos ending Sep 2022 (starting with Oct 2021 and ending with Sep 2022, unadjusted for seasonality):
0.831% 0.491% 0.307% 0.841% 0.913% 1.335% 0.558% 1.102% 1.374% -0.012% -0.035% 0.215%
Looking at the last 3 months, inflation would indeed seem to be well under control given 2 of those mos show deflation. And this is using the Fed's preferred metric. Even the positive Sep figure annualizes to only 2.6%.
One hears much criticism of the Fed for not using current real time non-cpi data and that current inflation is really lower than the 12-month cpi and yet just looking at recent cpi data would make the point.
Also interesting is that according to one article economists are predicting a 7.9% US CPI print on Thursday for the 12 months ending Oct 2022. This would require an Oct 2022 cpi print for the month of 0.51% - quite a hike from recent months.
Any idea why there is not more consideration of recent cpi data, at least by talking heads if not the Fed? Thanks.
The following are the percentage changes for US CPI for each of the 12 mos ending Sep 2022 (starting with Oct 2021 and ending with Sep 2022, unadjusted for seasonality):
0.831% 0.491% 0.307% 0.841% 0.913% 1.335% 0.558% 1.102% 1.374% -0.012% -0.035% 0.215%
Looking at the last 3 months, inflation would indeed seem to be well under control given 2 of those mos show deflation. And this is using the Fed's preferred metric. Even the positive Sep figure annualizes to only 2.6%.
One hears much criticism of the Fed for not using current real time non-cpi data and that current inflation is really lower than the 12-month cpi and yet just looking at recent cpi data would make the point.
Also interesting is that according to one article economists are predicting a 7.9% US CPI print on Thursday for the 12 months ending Oct 2022. This would require an Oct 2022 cpi print for the month of 0.51% - quite a hike from recent months.
Any idea why there is not more consideration of recent cpi data, at least by talking heads if not the Fed? Thanks.
