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Investment Q&A

Not investment advice or solicitation to buy/sell securities. Do your own due diligence and/or consult an advisor.

Q: Hello Peter,
I have been meaning to get your opinion even before the two-day wild ride and this question is not based on today’s aftermath. And I will speak from both sides of the fence. As usual, I want your perspective.
You typically respond to reader’s questions with a 5-year outlook. However, I think that the 5 yr business plan is outdated except maybe for utilities and commodity producers. And even then, with instantaneous data enabling policy definition, the peak to trough and back for business cycles are short.
High growth companies typically do not have a moat as they rely on transformative technology as the enabler. Today Amazon finds its digital commerce saturating and looks to cloud services for growth. Shopify is looking at vertical integration with logistics and financial services while the world moves towards open-source digital commerce. Game, set, match.
Now I step to the other side of the fence. Probability of a soft landing -very small? The fed cannot control supply but can control demand. Housing, lumber, commodities consumption diminishes just as supply ramps up in an inflationary environment hoping to absorb costs. Discretionary, industrials slow down and drag commodities.
Where am I going? If my thinking is correct, my investment decision should be based on a 2yr or shorter period return. So, between now April 5 and the end of seasonal strength next Feb; is it tech- SHOP and TOI, or Energy and Commodities? What about Gold and Silver? Is it NVDA and CRWD or QCOM and MSFT? And I am not looking to hedge but make portfolio changes, swinging for the fences. Or is it too late for sell in May?
I look forward to your opinion.
Regards
Read Answer Asked by Rajiv on May 06, 2022
Q: The above stocks have declined significantly from 2021 highs. I would like to make 2 or 3 purchases from this list. Please remove any you think are unlikely to resume upwards momentum over next 12 months and show the rest in a priority list for purchase consideration from highest priority to lowest for growth or growth/dividend return. Many thanks. Jane Norton
Read Answer Asked by Jane on May 06, 2022
Q: Hi Everyone at 5i!! I had the pleasure of reading Peter’s article, ‘’ 5 things Investors Rarely Think about Before Buying a Stock but should “ and it gave me good food for thought. I was wondering if 5i would put on a webinar about reading a stock’s financial reports, which help determine if a it is a good investment. I am aware of some things, but could really do with a comprehensive over view. For all I know you could have already provided such an over view and I missed it. If so, could you please provide me with a reference to the information . Cheers, Tamara
Read Answer Asked by Tamara on May 06, 2022
Q: I sold two thirds of my position in EQX in the high $10's and low 11"s a couple of weeks ago. I rebuilt part of that position in the low $9's but then the quarterly results came out and the stock got hammered down. I usually look at the results myself but I am too busy right now so could you give a quick run down on the results and what in particular the market didn't like. I hold DPM and Agnico Eagle in other account and AEM has been bouncing around a lot. Do you have a favorite out of these three and why?
Read Answer Asked by Paul on May 06, 2022
Q: I know you don't have a crystal ball, but one analyst yesterday says sell SHOP with a US$400 target and a two year runway to better days and another today gives them a US$1000 target with this being a short blip.

In a non-reg account, would you sell for the loss? What would be your 30 day replacement? What would you suggest in a registered account?

Thanks.
Read Answer Asked by Gregory on May 05, 2022
Q: I have a question re portfolio allocation. My current plan is to retire in 5 years. I've been lucky enough to accumulate enough funds for comfortable retirement assuming they can grow enough to offset inflation. What would be your ideal allocation for a pre-retirement investor trying to preserve his/her portfolio from inflation?

My current allocation is 10% energy, 10% health, 20% finance, 10% industrials, 15% technology, 5% telecom, 5% utilities, 5% materials, 5% consumer staples, 10% consumer discretionary, and 5% real estate. In terms of geo allocation, I am 33% Canada, 60% USA, 5% developed, and 2% emerging. My risk tolerance is about 20% meaning that I'd be seriously concerned if lost over 20% of my investments during a calendar year.
Does my allocation seem reasonable to you? Any changes (geo or sectors) that you'd recommend here?

Also, thanks to Biden's sanctions against Russia, I expect we will have high inflation (as well as high rates and possibly recession) at least until mid-2023. Do you recommend any temporary adjustments to portfolio allocation during this period of time?
Thanks for your great service!
Read Answer Asked by Michael on May 05, 2022
Q: Can I get your thoughts on Corteva's fundamentals and expectations for its upcoming report. Currently momentum looks good - New CEO has been in place for a few months and the stock is one of the few performing well in 2022. How does it look for starting a new position at this time? Are there other AG stocks that you would consider?
Read Answer Asked by Daniel on May 05, 2022