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Investment Q&A

Not investment advice or solicitation to buy/sell securities. Do your own due diligence and/or consult an advisor.

Q: Donald Trump is likely becoming a GPO nominee for the coming US Presidential election. How should an investor prepare for the coming market uncertainty ? Presently I hold 20% of my portfolio in cash and am contemplating to increase my cash holding to 50%. Please advise. Thank you. Bill
Read Answer Asked by Bill on February 29, 2016
Q: I go into detail because this Question concerns a larger issue related to cash levels investors should allocate to Reserves. Reserve to take advantage of opportunities in volatile times. I will normally be brief when my words need no explanation , background or context.

National Oilwell Varco (NOV.us), ONE company is 8% of my portfolio. The sector represented 20% before I reduced it to 11%. NOV has lost more than half its value (and 70% of my cost). The over-allocation to NOV was the idea of a former broker . I too am at fault: I compounded the error by not rebalancing sooner. I reduced sector allocation but failed to reduce NOV. And now I try to avert my eyes when I see the loss. Problems get worse when ignored.

I arrive now at the 5i doorstep, to obtain objective comment:
In your opinion , since NOV has fallen off a cliff , does it now represent value such that one should just hold? The dividend is decent (if it is safe ; and I can't use the tax loss)

Context: Many financial commentators advise that investors keep high cash reserves during current volatility so that you’d then be in position to pick up great values when markets over-react on the downside. The advice assumes stocks will continue the recent (and rapid) descent . I had thought major markets in the US, Europe, UK and Canada had now dropped enough such that a high cash reserve was now not crucial. Several experts think otherwise: I am referring here to the opinions of successful , real-world investors. I disregard those drama queens who scream dire warnings, no matter the facts, prospects and real business conditions. I also disregard the idiocy of conmen and bullies ---the O’Leary’s of the world--- and others like the affable but hyper Jim Cramers of the Americas. I disregard the opinions of Dr Marc Faber and others whose purpose seems to be to sell expensive letters that predict the end of the world. Their performance is not unlike results you'd get from a random coin toss [CXO Advisory and other sources have documented the poor track records of many gurus..

My question about freeing up cash (by selling NOV in my case) thus arose after I thought through the concerns well reasoned and articulated by thoughtful , successful advisors.

Notwithstanding recent market corrections, the wiser commentators continue to emphasize the importance of maintaining large cash reserves to take advantage of opportunities in these volatile times if markets descend even further. Unlike the sensationalists, the thoughtful advisors make sense . I have therefore taken seriously their views on ensuring one should today keep cash reserves higher than usual

Do you think I should sell/reduce NOV to add to cash reserves ? Or do you think NOV is now excellent value and is not now the best candidate to jettison if the purpose is just to add to cash reserve?

AO:ls
Champlain NY cc Greensboro NC
Read Answer Asked by Adam on September 30, 2015
Q: Hi,

Care to comment on RBC's downgrade of BIN? One of their main key points was BIN's significant footprint in energy producing locales and they feel that BIN could experience pricing and volume pressures as crude prices impact regional GDP. In your last response to a question on BIN you said,"We added it to the portfolios largely because of its leverage to lower oil prices, its US revenue (60%) and its largely recession-proof business." Do you think RBC's concerns about lower crude affecting pricing trump the benefits of cheaper transport costs? It would appear the market does, BIN down 5% today after not much volatility lately.

thanks.
Read Answer Asked by Steve on April 20, 2015
Q: I wish to purchase a dividend paying company, where there is some chance for growth and am thinking about one of the rails, (although perhaps a U.S. rail company but don't know any) or a pipeline company. Am I correct in thinking that the rails have a pricing power authority that trumps pipelines, pipelines being more closely tied to commodity price. Thank You
Read Answer Asked by Phyllis on October 14, 2014
Q: Please compare the risk of CVD vs CBO. I note that CVD has a lower duration so I assume it would hold its value better should interest rates increase. Please comment on the duration and other risk factors. Thank you.
Read Answer Asked by Richard on May 26, 2014