Investment Q&A

Q: We've been reading of lots of deregulation coming in the U.S generally, but especially in the financial sector. Pundits have taken to saying 'animal spirits will be unleashed'. Additionally, I wonder if orange imperialism will tend to trickle down to C suites. Can you suggest a Canadian name or two in relevant sectors that might be more likely to be taken out?
(With the proviso that their debt levels be on the low side for sector average.)
Deduct as you see fit.
Thank You,
Tim

Q: Hi Peter and team,

I'm wondering how resilient TFII is in the face of prolonged tariffs (if it ever comes to that). The business section of the Toronto Star had an article with a scary introduction:

MONTREAL - Truckers say the sweeping tariffs threatened by U.S. President Donald Trump would wreak havoc on their industry as trade between Canada and the United States takes a hit.

“If these tariffs came in at those levels for a prolonged period, this could be the final nail in the coffin for many trucking fleets,” said Stephen Laskowski, president of the Canadian Trucking Alliance.

“It’s a grim picture.”

Realizing that TFII is a large company, does it have what it takes to 'weather the storm'?

Thanks for your insight.

Q: Can you please help me understand why these two names are underperforming while the BOC is easing interest rates? I hold both names in my unregistered account. Please rate them as buy, sell, or hold for a 3- to 5-year holding period

Q: Any reason for Etherum [ETF] drop close to 20% on monday?

Q: As one of 5i’s early subscribers, I find it a useful thought experiment to give my answer to a question before clicking on the 5i answer. I have found over the years our answers converge and so I rarely send in questions and comments. However my sense is that DeepSeek is a significant change.

On one level it is a clear lesson in the reality that, as Keynes said many decades ago, it’s real resources that matter, not money.

The American approach to AI development was that if you don’t have a $1billion you're not in the game. The Chinese have shown that if you have the pool of talent, amazing things can be done with relatively little money. The prevailing narrative that the Chinese are just copy cats was also blown out of the water. DeepSeek not only upends every assumption underlying the American approach to AI, it shows that the Chinese can out Silicon Silicon Valley and that means that, unlike in the past, China’s most talented minds will want to work for Chinese companies not American ones.

How will the Americans respond? Having staked political capital on the $500 billion Stargate, Trump and his entourage of billionaires have no choice, they will double down. We are hearing the narrative already, they are now saying that $500 million invested in DeepSeek’s advancements will produce even more amazing advancements in AI.

At a moment in history, as America consumes itself, China has taken a leap forward. Not only have they bloodied Trump, they have shaken the world in ways Napoleon could never have foreseen.

There are actually lessons to be learned in how Canada might deal with Trump but the political bobble heads and corporate Canada have actually come to believe the myths of neo-liberalism they started purveying in the 80’s, and are now incapable of rising above their paralysing fear.

Every investor has to ask, what are the implications of DeepSeek for their investments? Doubling down by the Americans will keep the party going for a while but it seems reasonable to expect a reckoning. Where would 5i look for alternatives to AI investments? Please suggest 5 US and 5 Cdn stocks that have strong balance sheets and reasonable growth prospects (without stretched valuations) that would benefit from using much less expensive AI? Also, please suggest a couple of ETF’s for Europe and China that would benefit should those markets surprise to the upside?
Mike

Q: I wondered what Trump would do to support the market, and now we have it.
A sovereign wealth fund!
A ludicrous idea for the U.S. which is not only a currency issuing government, it is also the reserve currency.
However, a deep pocketed buyer of U.S stocks will inevitably push p/e's higher.
While the insanity grows, we might as well make some money.
Hopefully Ryan speaks to the potential impact of this for investors in his webinar tomorrow.
Mike

Q: You say the Canadian market is up 5% since trump started talking about tariffs, how much is the US market up since then?

Q: I have been trying to get my head around what will happen with Trump's war against Canada. I have tended towards devastation to the Canadian economy and as such have shifted some investments to the US and taken a 25% cash position at least until we get some clarity on the situation. I would really like to get an understanding of just how devastating it would be. Assuming Trump does put a 25% tariff on Canadian goods just how bad does 5I think things could get . Unemployment numbers ? How deep a recession ? How or even can we weather the storm ? .... And any other thoughts you may have if we get the full brunt of a 25% tariff ? .....
I have been questioning my fears simply because Mr Canadian Market is so far not panicking { but I am } ......

Q: In an answer to Terry this morning on industries that are vulnerable to tariffs 5i put pipelines as the second most vulnerable . When I asked the same question about the stocks in my portfolio's vulnerability, 5i said about ENB ....." ENB may not be impacted much and in fact is planning on expanding pipeline operations if there is a surge in US drilling under Trump. " ....Could you please clarify ? If I'm vulnerable ENB is going to be sold ..... Thanks for your terrific service .......

Q: Hello Team, Seams like every couple weeks something in the world changes the script (Trump, Tariffs, Deepseek, etc). Can you please rank the above 12 stocks from best too worst for the next 2-3 years. No worries about size of company or industry. Thanks so much!

Q: I figured it was coming sooner or later. What are your thoughts on the donalds latest blathering about allowing US banks in to Canada. I can not see them being interested as the market is well served now. With the current sentiment towards America it would be tough to gain any foothold in Canada. Your thoughts please.

Q: hi Peter
can I get your assessment of Lutke as CEO of Shopify, referencing the recent article in the Globe and Mail, "Shopify CEO Lutke says Canada's tariff response 'the wrong choice'. in particular what do you think of his judgement ( and his COO kaz something?? )as he is stating he thinks the Trump tariffs are due to border/fentanyl issues? further, do you see risk owning Shop as his comments may not sit well with many Shop users, and Shop investors. seemingly obvious lack of judgement (or bare faced kissing the ass of Trump and Americans), one wonders if many will see these 2 little immature tech bros in the same light as the out of control Musk of DOGE. I'd appreciate your thoughts on Shop in light of these 2 tech bros.

Q: Hello, I have a few questions on tariffs.
With the anticipation of Tariffs, what sector would you recommend we are to stay invested in
Also. Do you think the Tariffs will last long .? If no, why? And lastly, do you think the market will drop by 5,10,20% given tariffs

Thanks

Q: Hello 5i team,
The stock price has fallen a bit below my entry price and I wanted to add to it. Would you still be comfortable adding at this level. The tariff craze is not spooking the markets as much as implied and was wondering how much product PBH sells to the US(or if they have operations there)?

I am holding for the long term (purchased in Dec 2022).

Thank You,
Andrew

Q: Good Morning
Can you please list the following sectors from the most vulnerable to the least affected by Trump's tariffs ? Please deduct as many credits as required. Thank you again for your insight.

Banks
Insurance Companies
REITS
Staples
Communication Services
Utilities
Pipelines
Discretionary
Technology
Energy
Materials
Industrials

Q: FOUR has bounced back. I sold it when Trump tapped Isaacman as head of NASA because of uncertainty. Is there more certainty that the stock can survive his exit intact, or is it rising on speculation of selling the co?

Q: Should these auto parts stocks be sold because of Trump tariffs?

Q: Hi 5i,

Considering taking a long term position in LMT but I am holding back due to potential US government cuts to defense spending.

I could see a scenario where Elon Musk/Trump administration would potentially cut back the costs of LMT's F-35 program in order to reach the administration's goal of cutting a trillion dollars in government spending. (Replace with Tesla Drones?).

F-35 program represents approx. 30% of LMT revenue. If this were the case what would this do to the share price? or is this already "baked in" to some degree?

Thank you,

Greg C.

Q: I am looking at industrials that will do well in the USA in the initial Trump period. I see you often recommend TT, but it is down where it was last September, which appears to mean negative momentum, which, you usually steer away from. Do you see strong upside for TT in the next couple of years, and would it be your choice, or one of your picks for this goal? Would you pick it over FIX? Is there anything in the Deep Seek revelations that would negatively affect either holding? Are there other holdings you would recommend, and would you choose more than one, and would you wait a bit for the markets to settle? Thanks!

Q: Please provide your thoughts on CNQ.
I’m thinking on adding this to my income portfolio.
Do you think it’s a buy at this price?
I’m holding off to see what trump does over the weekend.🙈