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Investment Q&A

Not investment advice or solicitation to buy/sell securities. Do your own due diligence and/or consult an advisor.

Q: Peter and Crew,

Yet another question about Amaya (AYA).

I listened to the quarter report and was not impressed. Managemnet seemed to avoid many of the questions and did not provide much information.

My main concern is with the financing they have arranged at 13% plus 4 million options. This seems like a very steep interest rate for a "good" quality company. I trust the bond guys more than the equity people so I am greatly concernied that AYA is a very, very speculative investment. I have seen many other companies that I consider to be speculative with rates much lower than 13%.

Your comments would be appreciated.

Regards
John
Read Answer Asked by John on May 21, 2014
Q: AYA has been soft the last few days. They announced that they are reporting Q1 on May 15. If you look at the chart for the week before Q4/FYE was recently announced, in hindsight, it appears that a "few" people knew the quarter was going to be soft. Would your long-term thesis change if AYA missed analyst expectations this quarter and do you think (without having a crystal ball) that based on the price action, although on low volume, investors are anticipating a repeat? What are your thoughts on the weakness?
Read Answer Asked by R on May 14, 2014
Q: Hi Peter,

I have $5000 burning a hole in my pocket, which I would like to turn into a "nice graduating gift" for my grandson. My timeframe is 4 years. What's your absolute best pick for growth at this time? I know this sounds a bit like going to the Oracle at Delphi, but it seems to work. You've provided so many excellent suggestions from which I've garnered some very nice returns ... and now I can't pick just one! Success, ironically, may be the bane of your chosen profession. Thanks so much for this wonderful service.
Read Answer Asked by Sylvia on May 12, 2014
Q: AYA... your favorite subject by now I am sure

I read your report and thank for that.... one comment which stood out for me was;

"We think AYA will eventually have to start ‘playing nice’ with the markets and release guidance at year-end to avoid this sort of decline."

Can you please provide additional explanation for this comment? Does this infer there is information management is not comfortable revealing? Or am I reading far too much into this .

Thank You

Gord

Read Answer Asked by Gord on April 29, 2014
Q: Your answer to Jeff's question about AYA's 5 year earnings growth. The CAGR IS -253%. The math proceeds as follows: -253% turns plus 4 cents into -6 cents after 1 year, into -9 cents after two years, -14, -22 and finally -33 cents after 5 years. If you change to a simple average (presumably over 5 years) you'd show -7.4 cents as the annual level change needed to turn plus 4 cents into -33 cents over 5 years. In simple interest terms that's -285% and not much easier to grasp. Keeping the CAGR (which works well in the vast majority of cases) and showing the 5 annual earnings in the body of the report would illustrate how plus 4 cents developed into -33. Publish this if you think it's worth doing so.
Read Answer Asked by Fraser on April 20, 2014
Q: Based on the April 17 market action it seems market players are tuned in to 5i's report on Amaya, AYA, issued the same day as a big pop. Just kidding, but what it does illustrate is how volatility can be a friend as well as a foe. Bear in mind, to add to John's recent wisdoms on this stock, that without volatility, the two sided coin, you wouldn't make any money in the market, so you might as well buy a GIC if you can't embrace this concept. Also, most stocks present buying opportunities when the faint of heart swoon. I can provide lots of recent B.O. examples with 5i portfolio stocks, too.

I love the new report card. At a glance I can see where a company's strengths and weaknesses are, and in Amaya's case it seems they need to buckle down and earn some dough. I get the D minus rating on 5 year EPS growth but I have trouble getting my head around minus 253% which I believe is an annualized return over the 5 years. My knowledge of accounting isn't very extensive but I believed that minus 100% was about as bad as it could get, and if you're going to break it down over 5 years you get something like minus 20% annually, less if compounded. So is this a typo or am I out to lunch? Also TD has current ROE as minus 13% so over the 5 years was this a positive figure that has shifted to the negative and is the trend down? Thanks, J.
Read Answer Asked by Jeff on April 18, 2014
Q: Just some general comments on AYA that some members might find useful from one who has been investing for 25+ years:
1) If you have followed the model portfolio, AYA should represent a max of 5% of your holdings
2) Not every stock in the portfolio is going to go straight up from the outset
3) It is very difficult to anticipate and "play" market sentiment swings, which is clearly affecting AYA presently. Stay focused on what the company is actually doing.
4) Don't check your stocks every hour. Better to evealuate monthly or quarterly, along with company information released.
5) We are all here because we believe in Mr Hodson's insight. Follow his portfolio, stay with his suggestions, and I believe you will have an excellent chance to outperform the market. That is all anyone could realistically ask for.
Good luck fellow investors!
Read Answer Asked by john on April 15, 2014
Q: re; Amaya, just a comment that I think is important, I was a huge shareholder but exited at 7.40 when I saw sheldon adelson owner of the venetian in las vegas and a person worth 40 billion, is backing a bill in the united states to ban internet gambling, I think this bill has legs and would affect Amaya quite negatively if passed, add in their horrible earnings and I think the stock is an avoid for now. dave
Read Answer Asked by david on April 15, 2014
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