Q: Hi there, thanks for the January update. Reading between the lines and with the current strength in the market so far this month, would you suggest holding a larger cash position at this time? I am currently almost 100% invested at the moment. What would be an appropriate amount for a cash position in the current market climate? Thanks!
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Investment Q&A
Not investment advice or solicitation to buy/sell securities. Do your own due diligence and/or consult an advisor.
Q: If I place a stop on a stock, can that be seen by others on trading platforms anywhere ?
Q: Hello 5i team,
Your January update (like everything else that you do) was much appreciated.
Over the past decade, whereas I would have been satisfied with a 7% compound annual return in order to meet my income needs, my RRIF portfolio registered a growth rate of 15% compound p.a. That’s great! However, in the last 3 years while I kept expecting a lower return, the actual returns kept confirming the long term trend.
Once again, if the estimated returns for the next 15 years (age 90) were to be 7% annually, I would be very happy.
This scenario would be my “base case”
However, we should expect a recession during this span of time; it is not a matter of “if” but “when”.
In the past recessions, most of the following indicators (yield curve, inflation trends, labour market, credit/liquidity situation, ISM index, earnings quality and housing market) painted a recessionary picture. The average market drop of the last 4 recessions was around 40%, the average duration around 1 year and the average recovery period around 2 years.
At present, and for now; all of these indicators are in an expansionary mode.
What should I do to prepare for or react to the upcoming recession hits?
1. I could ride the recession (stay invested); in this scenario, my annual income would be 21% lower than in the base case.
2. I could exit after the start of the recession (while closely observing the leading indicators). Incur a 20% drop in the value of my portfolio (vs 40%), partially miss the first part of the recovery and obtain 15% (vs assumed 33%) and on to the second leg 25% recovery. In this scenario, my annual income would be 4% lower than in the base case. This outcome would be quite acceptable; it’s just like a rounding error.
3. I could also try to be “cute” and exit just before the start of the recession. This scenario would be a “non-starter” because it implies “timing the market”. Imagine if I exited the market in early 2019 and the recession did not hit until 2 years later……
I’m therefore leaning towards scenario 2. What do you think? What do you suggest?
Thanks, as always,
Antoine
Your January update (like everything else that you do) was much appreciated.
Over the past decade, whereas I would have been satisfied with a 7% compound annual return in order to meet my income needs, my RRIF portfolio registered a growth rate of 15% compound p.a. That’s great! However, in the last 3 years while I kept expecting a lower return, the actual returns kept confirming the long term trend.
Once again, if the estimated returns for the next 15 years (age 90) were to be 7% annually, I would be very happy.
This scenario would be my “base case”
However, we should expect a recession during this span of time; it is not a matter of “if” but “when”.
In the past recessions, most of the following indicators (yield curve, inflation trends, labour market, credit/liquidity situation, ISM index, earnings quality and housing market) painted a recessionary picture. The average market drop of the last 4 recessions was around 40%, the average duration around 1 year and the average recovery period around 2 years.
At present, and for now; all of these indicators are in an expansionary mode.
What should I do to prepare for or react to the upcoming recession hits?
1. I could ride the recession (stay invested); in this scenario, my annual income would be 21% lower than in the base case.
2. I could exit after the start of the recession (while closely observing the leading indicators). Incur a 20% drop in the value of my portfolio (vs 40%), partially miss the first part of the recovery and obtain 15% (vs assumed 33%) and on to the second leg 25% recovery. In this scenario, my annual income would be 4% lower than in the base case. This outcome would be quite acceptable; it’s just like a rounding error.
3. I could also try to be “cute” and exit just before the start of the recession. This scenario would be a “non-starter” because it implies “timing the market”. Imagine if I exited the market in early 2019 and the recession did not hit until 2 years later……
I’m therefore leaning towards scenario 2. What do you think? What do you suggest?
Thanks, as always,
Antoine
Q: Good morning Peter, Ryan, and Staff,
I notice that 5i often includes a stock in a different sector as compared to the TSX. For example, you have GSY in the Consumer Cyclical sector, but the TSX has it in the Financial sector. Could a case be made to include GSY in the Financial sector? (Has it grown a lot since 5i first started following it, and perhaps has become more "financial"?)
I am confused when looking at a stock that 5i doesn't cover. For example, several members recently have expressed interest in Pollard Banknote PBL. The TSX lists PBL as Consumer Cyclical. Would you concur? When in doubt, where can we determine the appropriate sector for a particular stock?
Thanks in advance for you insight.
I notice that 5i often includes a stock in a different sector as compared to the TSX. For example, you have GSY in the Consumer Cyclical sector, but the TSX has it in the Financial sector. Could a case be made to include GSY in the Financial sector? (Has it grown a lot since 5i first started following it, and perhaps has become more "financial"?)
I am confused when looking at a stock that 5i doesn't cover. For example, several members recently have expressed interest in Pollard Banknote PBL. The TSX lists PBL as Consumer Cyclical. Would you concur? When in doubt, where can we determine the appropriate sector for a particular stock?
Thanks in advance for you insight.
Q: I see you use these Greek origin words often. Please explain what they mean.
Thanks,
Jim
Thanks,
Jim
Q: please let me know your thoughts about:
etfc,dsg,mu,mlco,eem,cbl,eifkwh.un,bep.un,spb,vnr
etfc,dsg,mu,mlco,eem,cbl,eifkwh.un,bep.un,spb,vnr
Q: Gentlemen: Gary Shilling says that 50% of returns are from knowing the direction of the market, 30% from the right sector and 20% from having the right stock. Along this line, please comment on where you see opportunities or risks now with specific examples please. I e direction, favourite sectors, and favourite stocks. Tks-JP
Q: Do not chuckle at my ignorance here please, but my question here is on ETF and Mutual Fund fees bought in self directed brokerage portfolios. If a posted managed fee (ie 1.5%) where does that withdraw fee show up and is it taken our annually or monthly? I never see a charge on my monthly statements for the etf management fees. How are they calculated, on the purchase price or a share value on a set date? Thanks
Q: Hi team
I have some money invested in this fund, Fidelity Magellan
it used to be managed by Peter Lynch
the US market has done well
Buy, hold or sell ? thanks
Michael
if you do not cover this fund, not sure if I should use the credit for the questions ?
I have some money invested in this fund, Fidelity Magellan
it used to be managed by Peter Lynch
the US market has done well
Buy, hold or sell ? thanks
Michael
if you do not cover this fund, not sure if I should use the credit for the questions ?
Q: Greetings.
I am planning on early retiring next year at 55. I am looking to transition my portfolio form balanced/growth to income. It would seem that although timing the market is not a predictable strategy, it would seem to me that this is probably the perfect time to transition my portfolio given the weaknesses in the utilities, telecom, pipes etc.
I have cash saved for my first 2 years of retirement to avoid being forced to withdraw funds at a 'inopportune time'. However, i also know my portfolio may need to last a number of years prior to being able to claim cpp, oas and social security (spouse of american citizen collecting social security). Would you recommend transitioning now or do i risk too much growth in the next while? Your thoughts/recommendations are always appreciated.
Cheers
I am planning on early retiring next year at 55. I am looking to transition my portfolio form balanced/growth to income. It would seem that although timing the market is not a predictable strategy, it would seem to me that this is probably the perfect time to transition my portfolio given the weaknesses in the utilities, telecom, pipes etc.
I have cash saved for my first 2 years of retirement to avoid being forced to withdraw funds at a 'inopportune time'. However, i also know my portfolio may need to last a number of years prior to being able to claim cpp, oas and social security (spouse of american citizen collecting social security). Would you recommend transitioning now or do i risk too much growth in the next while? Your thoughts/recommendations are always appreciated.
Cheers
Q: TD Waterhouse said, they did not have any US Treasury Bills in their inventory. Therefore, I could not buy any US Treasury Bills. Is this right and where can you go to buy? TD does have TD Ameritrade in the US, why would they not have US Treasury Bills there?
Q: Greetings
What’s your view of companies that offer to repurchase shares via a ‘normal course issuer bid’ and simultaneously issue a similar amount of stock to officers and directors through stock options? The two activities run more or less concurrently but of course are issued under separate notifications.
Thank you
What’s your view of companies that offer to repurchase shares via a ‘normal course issuer bid’ and simultaneously issue a similar amount of stock to officers and directors through stock options? The two activities run more or less concurrently but of course are issued under separate notifications.
Thank you
Q: What is your opinion on Fidelity Can.Large Cap B (Fid.231)?
It still has 4 Stars, but had zero return in 2017.
What do you see in the future for this fund?
Thank you.
It still has 4 Stars, but had zero return in 2017.
What do you see in the future for this fund?
Thank you.
Q: Can you please recommend few TITANIUM stocks or ETF.
Q: Hi,
I'm wondering about this IPO, primarily for it's focus on industries / sectors I feel will provide future growth. However, I have concerns over some of the wording in the prospectus and feel this may just be a 'flyer', as opposed to a trust unit opportunity. It is slated to begin trading under the ticker BL.UN and think it may be worth waiting to see how the IPO goes, before trying to assess its potential. I am wondering if you could offer any thoughts on it, as I have come to value your insight very much and certainly have benefited with your recommendation of NVDA as a stock focused on the future of AI. If your view is that there is a better approach through a selection of stocks or ETFs (such as ROBO or ARKW), then feel free to redirect my attention.
As always, I look forward to your thoughts.
Thanks,
Dawn
I'm wondering about this IPO, primarily for it's focus on industries / sectors I feel will provide future growth. However, I have concerns over some of the wording in the prospectus and feel this may just be a 'flyer', as opposed to a trust unit opportunity. It is slated to begin trading under the ticker BL.UN and think it may be worth waiting to see how the IPO goes, before trying to assess its potential. I am wondering if you could offer any thoughts on it, as I have come to value your insight very much and certainly have benefited with your recommendation of NVDA as a stock focused on the future of AI. If your view is that there is a better approach through a selection of stocks or ETFs (such as ROBO or ARKW), then feel free to redirect my attention.
As always, I look forward to your thoughts.
Thanks,
Dawn
Q: Hi there, a follow up to my previous question: you suggested IWO and VSS - were there any ETFs listed on the TSX that would be equivalent? Thank you!
Q: Thank you for your answer on my question/comment on ETF.
I had missed to mention why I am uncomfortable with this passive investing trend. The markets over many years has been acustomed to this type of "investment du jour" but there is something special to ETF that I forgot to say and why I think it is important.
ETF are among many other qualities supposed to be providing valuable diversity . You did not provided a comment on my question about what I call the tail wagging the dog. If I am right and I do not know if I am (hence my question), then there is NO diversity about buying an ETF as it will behave like a stock and they will force down or up the undervalued securities.
Te ETF's that I buy have an extremly narrow scope and are more induced to react to the underlying ebb and flow value of the underlying asset they are suppose tyo represent than the other way around.
Your comment on this question (very important for me as one of my major belief is into diversification) will be appreciated and if it is too long or irrelevant, please simply keep it private
I had missed to mention why I am uncomfortable with this passive investing trend. The markets over many years has been acustomed to this type of "investment du jour" but there is something special to ETF that I forgot to say and why I think it is important.
ETF are among many other qualities supposed to be providing valuable diversity . You did not provided a comment on my question about what I call the tail wagging the dog. If I am right and I do not know if I am (hence my question), then there is NO diversity about buying an ETF as it will behave like a stock and they will force down or up the undervalued securities.
Te ETF's that I buy have an extremly narrow scope and are more induced to react to the underlying ebb and flow value of the underlying asset they are suppose tyo represent than the other way around.
Your comment on this question (very important for me as one of my major belief is into diversification) will be appreciated and if it is too long or irrelevant, please simply keep it private
Q: Hello 5i. Just wondered if you had seen the article on this topic in the Globe & Mail over the weekend. What it suggests is that dividends from US-listed ETFs held in an RRSP account are not subject to US taxes. However, the article states that this is not the case for dividends paid by Canadian-listed ETFs that invest in US stocks. In this case, dividends ARE subject to US withholding taxes, even if the ETF is held in an RRSP account. The article goes on to say that these taxes cannot be recovered. (Same situation would apply to mutual funds.)
Assuming the article got this, I'm not sure that all ETF investors are aware of this nuance.
Assuming the article got this, I'm not sure that all ETF investors are aware of this nuance.
Q: What is your view on seg. funds, pro's and con's, thanks?
Q: Can you suggest best websites that provide insider selling, buying and holdings. I have visited INK Research, but fairly expensive for subscription. Any others that are more reasonable cost, or best, free!!