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Investment Q&A

Not investment advice or solicitation to buy/sell securities. Do your own due diligence and/or consult an advisor.

Q: Hi Group is it a no brainer to buy CWB and sit on it until deal goes thru? Looks like around 25% upside simply waiting on the deal to go tru with the only risk being government intervention. What do you think?

also light on Canadian /us banks/financials I own GSY. US has been outperforming Canadian financials by a long shot. What's you thought on financials in general (US or Cad) give me some of your top financial sector picks regardless of US /Canadian
Read Answer Asked by Terence on July 10, 2024
Q: Hello 5i Team

I currently own shares of Canadian Western Bank (CWB) and National Bank (NA) in my TFSA.

The yield on the shares of CWB are approximately 1 % higher than yield on NA

The announced takeover of CWB by NA is at at a share ratio of 0.45 shares NA per 1 share CWB.

NA announced an public offering of NA shares at $112.30 concurrently with the takeover. This implies a price of 0.45 x $112.30 = $50.54 for shares of CWB.

This morning share of NA are trading below the offering price (~$110.40) and the share price of CWB are trading around $42.35 which implies an exchange ratio of 0.39.

Is there an opportunity to acquire shares of CWB at a small discount to the takeover premium (with the risk of the deal not being approved by the government) in the anticipation of the takeover and exchange for shares of NA or should I just let the deal close in 18 months (end of 2025)?

I would receive marginally more dividend income from the share of CWB while waiting for the deal to close.

I also think there will be selling pressure on CWB for the next two weeks as investors may be inclined to sell CWB in anticipation of the June 25 change in capital gains inclusion rates.

Thank you

Read Answer Asked by Stephen on June 14, 2024
Q: CWB up quite a bit today on the news of National's attempt to purchase. Up 70% but if I'm not mistaken there is still 40% on the table. { Please correct me if I am wrong about that 40% } Pundits on the Business channel have been commenting this morning and the consensus seems to be the government is unlikely to quash the deal ..... 40% is a nice arb play if the odds look good. Mind you if it doesn't go through there would likely be a nasty drop ...... What says 5i ? Do you like the arb play here on a risk reward basis ?
Read Answer Asked by Garth on June 12, 2024
Q: Hello Team,

The Canadian banking sector has been fairly muted for a while now, notwithstanding higher rates which have been beneficial in boosting interest income. And, soon, rates are expected to decrease. Is that going to hurt their earnings or help due to an overall smaller delinquency in loan repayments? If it will help, from a choice of buying and holding some of the smaller Canadian on-line only banks or the traditional ones, say for the next five years, which would you recommend?
Read Answer Asked by Adel on March 28, 2024
Q: If forced to give a percentage chance of CWB failing, what would it be. CWB looks like a decent buy to me at the moment. Yield is good, payout ratio is reasonable, last report was okay, they are becoming more widely involved across Canada, etc. However, they are relatively small and by nature more involved with somewhat riskier loans. Is this a bank you would invest in right now?
Read Answer Asked by Donald on March 21, 2023