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Investment Q&A

Not investment advice or solicitation to buy/sell securities. Do your own due diligence and/or consult an advisor.

Q: Regarding Peter's great question on Telesat and MDA, I too have been looking further into these companies and did not see a response regarding Lightspeed and potential revenue. All I have found so far is:
"Telesat Lightspeed has the potential to transform global satellite and terrestrial communications industries, dramatically increasing the Company’s addressable market from approximately US$18 billion to approximately US$365 billion and significantly expanding its growth potential."
** from the companies Prospectus November 16 2021
and from https://spacenews.com/telesats-leo-constellation-fully-funded-after-manufacturer-switch/
"Telesat is targeting a 30% return on investment from Lightspeed, which is seeking a slice of an enterprise and government connectivity market the company estimates would be worth about 200 billion dollars around 2025."
"Telesat expects the total cost for 156 satellites to be around $3.5 billion, when factoring in launches and other expenses, including the ground systems and user terminal technology that would also be used for the 42 follow-on satellites."
Read Answer Asked by Michael on September 15, 2023
Q: Good morning 5i,

I’ve been reading up on the Telesat/MDA story and find it fascinating. I wonder if it could also be lucrative for a small investor such as myself?

From reviewing the financials (to the limited extent I understand those documents) and other materials relating to MDA, my impression is that it presents a real investment opportunity. It does real business and it appears from its recent contracts that its revenues over the next few years could rise significantly. At its current revenue base it appears its debt is well covered and its balance sheet looks healthy.

Telesat, to me, is less clear. It seems the recent announcement that MDA will build the satellites for the Telesat Lightspeed project at significant savings to the previous plan is propelling the recent steep increase in share price. But beyond that euphoria, is the company on solid footing?

The MD&A of March 2023 states:
“After decades of developing and successfully operating our geosynchronous orbit-based satellite services business, we are now poised to revolutionize the provision of global broadband connectivity by developing what we believe will be the one of world’s most advanced constellations of LEO satellites and integrated terrestrial infrastructure, Telesat Lightspeed.
Leading into 2023, we remain focused on increasing the utilization of our existing satellites, the development of our global Telesat Lightspeed constellation, and identifying and pursuing opportunities to invest in expansion satellite capacity all while maintaining our operating discipline.”

Nowhere though have I been able to find any prediction of the revenue that will accrue to Telesat from deployment of the Telesat Lightspeed constellation. A service I subscribe to notes that future earnings can’t be reliably calculated by extrapolating past data or using analyst projections (there aren’t any) and it doesn’t look like management has offered anything either. Who are Telesat’s customers and what are they going to pay for getting aboard the Lightspeed train?”

Telesat’s balance sheet appears highly leveraged and its debt isn’t well covered by operating cash flow. If Telesat Lightspeed is a truly transformational project I’d have expected to see something, somewhere, discussing the money it will make for Telesat and how it will reduce the debt and increase shareholder value, but as far as I can tell – nothing but crickets.

I would greatly appreciate your advice regarding MDA – are there risks/concerns that I might be overlooking?

Regarding Telesat, do you know of any revenue projections that I’ve overlooked and, if not, is it odd none are being made? Also, any other comment you have regarding Telesat would be appreciated. Is something really big about to happen here? It seems the process should be far enough along, given that billions of dollars have been committed by lenders, governments and the company itself, to answer that question. But maybe not, and maybe it's all still highly speculative ...?

Thanks, 5i, and please deduct as you see fit.
Peter
Read Answer Asked by Peter on September 07, 2023
Q: Hi 5i,

Would appreciate your thoughts on the recent offer by Advent International buy MAXR.

As a share holder should I consider this a done deal and sell? or is it worth hanging onto the shares in case there is a competing offer from another bidder for MAXR?

If the MAXR does ultimately get bought out, is there a similar company you could recommend to replace it in my portfolio?

Sorry for the multiple questions. Please deduct credits as you see fit.

Thanks in advance,

Greg C.
Read Answer Asked by GREGORY on December 16, 2022
Q: does MDA. face huge future capital expenditures.? what percent of revenues come from government contracts? who are MDA,s main competitors? is there any company specific reason for the shares to have dropped from their high? thanks Richard
Read Answer Asked by richard on January 09, 2022
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