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Investment Q&A

Not investment advice or solicitation to buy/sell securities. Do your own due diligence and/or consult an advisor.

Q: I would appreciate your take on - The cracks in the Enbridge dividend story by David Milstead in the G&M dated Dec 3, 2017. Some of the key points in the article include (all CAPS from the article):

- ENBRIDGE EMPHASIZES 'AVAILABLE CASH FLOW FROM OPERATIONS' TO INVESTORS WHEN IT TALKS ABOUT THE SUSTAINABILITY OF ITS DIVIDEND. IN CALCULATING THIS MEASURE, IT IGNORES MOST OF ITS CAPITAL EXPENDITURES, DEDUCTING ONLY 'MAINTENANCE' CAPEX TO ARRIVE AT THE NUMBER. THAT HAS LEFT BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF CAPEX OUT OF THE MEASURE OVER TIME. WHEN ALL OF THE COMPANY'S CAPITAL EXPENDITURES ARE DEDUCTED FROM OPERATING CASH FLOW, ENBRIDGE POSTS NEGATIVE FREE CASH FLOW IN NEARLY EVERY YEAR. STILL, THE COMPANY PAYS DIVIDENDS — AND ISSUES DEBT, AS WELL.
- For the third quarter, Enbridge reported $360-million in maintenance capital expenditures. Total capex was $1.95-billion. Depreciation, a measure of how much of the company's property, plant and equipment was "used up" in the period, was $848-million.
- In the last 10 years, from 2007 on, it was only in 2016 that Enbridge actually posted positive free cash flow, a paltry $83-million. The 10-year total is a staggering $24.1-billion in negative free cash flow. That's before paying out $7.4-billion in dividends. Perhaps not coincidentally, the company issued almost $25.6-billion in net debt over that decade. It now has $65-billion in debt on its books, including the tens of billions it took on in the merger with Spectra Energy Corp. this year.
- https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/inside-the-market/the-cracks-in-the-enbridge-dividend-story/article37172663/

I would have expected that maintenance capex would be inline with the depreciation expense. Is Milstead highlighting one of the risks in ENB - ie., that the dividend is solid as long as the market has confidence in the Company and it can raise additional capital each year.

What mid/large-cap companies in this sector would you would recommend that have more conservative financials?

Thank you.
Read Answer Asked by rajiv on December 04, 2017
Q: I have sold my positions in ENB and ZCL for tax loss reasons. I am wondering if I should look at other stocks to replace these now or just hold the cash and buy these back in January. I would like your opinion and suggestions. I have a very long time frame. Thank you
Read Answer Asked by stephen on December 01, 2017
Q: Here we go again.The underwriters try to push the stock as high as possible,but in this case of ENB with limited success.After market closed today ENB announced it is going to the market again to raise financing to the tune of $1.5b of private placement of 33.5m of treasury shares @ $44.84(recent 52 week low of $43.91),At the same time it reconfirmed 10%pa increase in dividend for a number of years.Please advise who are the lead underwriter(s) & underwriters.I guess BMO is one as it did a glowing report in G&M @ end of last week.My purchase @ $50 is 10% higher than the. $44.84,so hopefully the gap can be bridged.Thanks for u usual great views & services.
Read Answer Asked by Peter on November 30, 2017
Q: Peter, Maybe I’m not seeing this correctly but it seems to me the double financing by ENF and ENB today are a excellent opportunity to buy great companies at a discount - and get paid very well at the same time. Is there a value trap here ? Thanks. Rod
Read Answer Asked by Rodney on November 30, 2017
Q: I am looking to add to either my Utilities or Industrial's.

My industrial weighting for Industrial is 11.8% which might be a bit light, and I can add to CAE or NFI.

Or,

Add to my Utilities is also quite low at 4%. I have BEP and ENB there. Should I add to ENB at this time?

As always thanks for the great advice

Lastly, the only REIT I have is a Small Position in Chartwell. Which i have put in Healthcare. I do have Financials at close to 15%, but should I look at my home as a big investment in real estate and not worry about it?
Read Answer Asked by Colin on November 29, 2017
Q: Do you see ENB as a potential tax-loss selling candidate for the remainder of this year, despite it not being on your list in your recent blog entry on the topic?

I have a 3% portfolio weighting of ENB in a taxable account and still wish to hold it long term, however as I have a small (7%) loss I'm contemplating selling it and buying it back at the beginning of January or thereabouts to offset some of this year's capital gains. Would you advise such a move for ENB right now, or is this all a bit too fancy (and/or risky)?
Read Answer Asked by Peter on November 29, 2017
Q: This is a reset preferred that I bought in the $16 range. With increasing interest rates and collecting the interest, I have done quite well. As long as interest is predicted to rise it will increase in value.
I was thinking that about selling if there is a forecast that interest rate will rise again in Dec or Jan. Will use proceeds to buy ENB in The midst of tax loss selling giving me a better dividend and more opportunity for growth. What’s your view on interest rates and buying ENB ?
Read Answer Asked by Roy on November 28, 2017
Q: Hello Peter
As a recent new member, I am both impressed and a little overwhelmed with all the information. I started making a lists of potential companies to invest with, but decided to cut to the chase and just ask you....I am looking for your recommendation for both income and growth companies.... perhaps 4 or 5 of each. I am fully invested in TD, which has done well for me this last year, as well as a couple energy stocks.... Spartan and Ring. I am retired but have a steady income flow with pensions and dividends from an ongoing business. Thank you for offering such a great service and look forward to a bright and lucrative future. Brian
Read Answer Asked by Brian on November 27, 2017
Q: YGR is seemingly highly rated and has been up more than 200% this year already. Is it still a buy at this level (closed at $4.79 on Friday)? Energy stocks could be back in vogue and with every sector almost already fully priced, it may be their turn.

I have dedicated about 5% of my total capital for very short term (say, no more than a month) high risk investments. Right now I am holding ENB in this slot ( a result of my recent bottom fishing) and I would like to flip it for something else before the Enbridge media day in December. Just in case Enbridge may say something untoward and jeopardizes its pledged dividend increases, or lower its guidance for 2018. After all this company had missed its earning targets for about six quarters. I could lose my modest ENB gain so far, and perhaps more.

Would YGR be a better choice for a bigger short term gain than ENB? Thanks for your take on this idea.
Read Answer Asked by Victor on November 27, 2017
Q: 5i team,
I want to understand more about ENB's debt. Most company web-sites allow the user to easily drill down under "Investor Relations" to find what one wants. The ENB web-site seems different - their Search engine asks "What can we help you find?" I tried to use this, but found it ineffective in finding what I want, debt or other info. Are you able to help on this? Thank you. Edward
Read Answer Asked by Edward on November 24, 2017
Q: Thinking about the issues ENB has faced post merger with Spectra Energy, do you think ALA's acquisition of WGL will go smoothly or do you foresee AFFO/Share (and even the dividend) being substantially impacted, especially given the premium ALA is paying?
Read Answer Asked by Trevor on November 23, 2017
Q: You recently answered another question in the following words.
you may be best served by a well-diversified conservative (or even balanced) portfolio. For your equity component (what ever allocation you decide) stay focused on large-cap dividend payers and weight defensive sectors generously.

If I want to stay with Canadian stocks only, please name your top 10 stocks that would fit this bill.

Thanks.
Read Answer Asked by Curtis on November 23, 2017
Q: Good morning Peter and Team,
Congratulations on the revamped website which is a pleasure to use.
I recently sold ZCL which is in my TFSA. I want to invest the proceeds into another energy stock, but also want to reduce my total number of holdings since I have too many stocks for the portfolio size. Given that we own these energy stocks: ENB, PKI, and TOG, which of these would you invest the proceeds today? BTW, in your answer to another member, you suggested he sell TOG (we're also down, and I'm frustrated in general with the oil producers) so am considering selling it as well. It's in my wife's RRSP but the loss would be offset by the stellar results received from a majority of your suggestions. (Portfolio approach!)
As always, thanks for the valued advice.
Read Answer Asked by Jerry on November 21, 2017
Q: I have a position in ENB at $48. If you were selling a covered call on this security, what strike price and expiry date would you select?. The goal would be not to have the position called away. The pending clarification relative to future dividend increase rates is one element that needs to be considered.
Thanks!
Read Answer Asked by Michael on November 20, 2017
Q: Hello Peter and Ryan,
Nice article in the Globe about ENB
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/inside-the-market/bmo-sees-once-in-a-multi-year-buying-opportunity-for-enbridge/article37015852/

I have a question on the last part of the paragraph. The analyst does a good job explaining why the target price would increase in the long run, but the sense is better to do an equity issue than adjusting the dividend. Do you agree with this? Crescent Point kept issuing equity and did not bode well for the stock. I know the stocks are not the same, but would you expect a drop in share price if ENB does an equity issue? I have 7 percent weighting and am down. Is it best to keep that weight for now or take some loss and move it to TransCanada. Thanks very much.

We see strong rationale for ENB to reaffirm the 10-12-per-cent dividend growth guidance. While we found it surprising that management did not reiterate its 10-12-per-cent dividend growth guidance on the Q3/17 call, deferring the details to the December investor day, we believe it is a prudent exercise for ENB to continue to revisit its payout policy in the context of the record-high 5.5-per-cent dividend yield and credit rating overhang. In the end, we believe ENB will reaffirm the current dividend guidance: we believe issuing equity is less value destructive than tempering dividend growth given the material market valuation compression."
Read Answer Asked by umedali on November 20, 2017