Investment Q&A

Q: Hi Peter,

In light of Enbridges current price of ~ $43.00, I took the opportunity to take a look at historical yields on Enbridge, as I’m currently contemplating buying more. I was able to source data back to 1995, which turned up a few interesting things, specifically:
- The long term growth rate of the ENB dividend has been ~ 11%
- The current yield (6.3%) is one of the highest yields in recent years.
- The yield has traditionally bounced between 2% to 5% since 1995. The period from 2016 onwards (weakness in energy sector) has seen the yield “fatten up” significantly.

With this information in mind, it’s my opinion (which could be wrong!) that for a longer term investor who is patient, Enbridge is simply a waiting game. The current public sentiment towards energy infrastructure (pipelines) pretty much guarantees that nothing new can be built, but also guarantees that what is in the ground will remain full, as I can’t see consumption of hydrocarbons/energy falling off a cliff anytime soon. Over a 5 year period, even if one ratchets down ENB dividend growth to 5% annually, and one assumes that the future yield comes in at the high end of 6%, this suggests that the future share price of ENB would be somewhere in the neighborhood of $57.00 ($3.42 dividend/ 6%). While this doesn’t suggest a massive gain, it still entails a compounded annual ROR of 5.8% over this period, and this assumes a “low end” scenario. On the other hand, if ENB can maintain dividend growth of 8% (which is still less than their guidance of 10%) and the yield corrects to something closer to a historical average (4%) then this would suggest a future price in five years of $98.40 ($3.93 dividend / 4%), a compounded annual ROR of 18% over a five year period. The risk in all of this is that something catastrophic happens, and ENB chops their dividend, much like TRP did back in ’99 (or 2000?).
My request is therefore simple – let me know what the flaws in this thesis are, or if you believe it to be sound, let me know that it is. Thanks.

Q: Hello,

If there is never another new pipeline built in Canada (which I feel is a real possibility), how would you view pipelines companies as long term investments going forward?

Regards,

Robert

Q: If my broker went on national tv and picked 3 index stocks I would immediately move my money.
I can pay 0.03 and get the same results.
Most of the guests on BNN are scared to stray from index.
Your group is not.
I read all of the questions and answers.
I learn something new everyday.
Thank you,

Q: Good morning 5i,

Disclosure first: Sorry for another ENB, and also, I've owned ENB for 20 years now, and it's done me very well! However, I have been really thinking about the last several years, more importantly the coming years.

I read the Q&A daily, great service, and have a question about the ratios (P/E, P/CF, P/B, etc) you provide in answers to other ENB questions. Am I correct in assuming they are from Bloomberg ... What numbers / earnings would these be based on ... Adjusted? GAAP? DCF?

Also, from ENB's press release:
•Earnings of $207 million or $0.13 per common share for the fourth quarter and earnings of $2,529 million or $1.66 per common share for the full year, both including the impact of a number of unusual, non-recurring or non-operating factors.

The "number of unusual, non-recurring or non-operating factors."
I'm pretty sure I remember these exact same words in an Enron press release.

From Globe Investor:
Enbridge said it took a $4.55-billion charge in the latest quarter to write down assets in the gas transmission and midstream business.

I can't find 'What' assets, worth $4.55B that they wrote down with no apparent explanation. Hopefully, I'm not looking hard enough.
Did 5i see anything that further explains this?
(for comparison, the Line 3 replacement is $5.3B, so $4.55B must be substantial)

As mentioned, I read this forum daily, and do know that while you endorse the company, you also state it is not without some risk.
(both TRP(~20 yrs ago) and KMI have cut their dividends before)

Appreciate your answer to the ratios question, and comments on the write downs.
Thank you, I do enjoy the service, and have a great weekend.

Rod

(deduct accordingly)

Q: I have a full position in my TFSA, in all of these except COV. They are all up except for ENB. I have $12,000 to invest, would you add to the existing stocks or can you suggest others. Thanks for your input, great site. thanks Dorothy

Q: High five 5i,
I'm down 13% on this stock, should I stick around or just let it go! :)
Would it recover in 2018, that is, up 13%.
God bless you 5i.

Q: Hi guys, I just opened an RESP for my 4 month old and have $5k to invest for his future education. Obviously I have a long term outlook. I'm contemplating buying a single ETF, for example VXC, or a solid dividend paying company, like BNS or ENB. The latter is pretty beaten up so there could be some growth there as well. I hold all 3 mentioned funds/stocks in my RRSP/TFSA mix. Which way would you lean and/or is there a better place to invest right now?
thanks for the great resource guys!
cheers,
Mark

Q: Hi. Most utilities have taken a sharp hit over past 2 weeks, due to mounting concerns about their valuation, in the rising interest rates scenario. I guess, this could present an opportunity for long term income seeker investors. However, if rates continue to rise, these companies could also be subject to revaluation due to lower multiples, thus, being solely income vehicles with little or no potential for capital appreciation. I would like to allocate my capital to companies where there is growth and some income generation ( and dividend growth potential).
I have ENB, KWH.un and ECI in my portfolio. Enbridge has been out of favour for past year due to concerns about high debt and questions about sustaining/supporting its dividend growth. But, still there seems to be some growth potential. Crius management recently indicated their preference to reallocate their cash flow to growth and pay down debts rather continue to increase dividends. Enercare still seems to enjoy consistent cash flow but not sure where growth will come from.

With this view, I have done a bit of capital reallocation and reduced my KWH.un and ECI position to less than 2%, over past few days and started to deploy towards solid companies with higher growth potential, like, SJ, CSU, AFN etc.

What are your thoughts about this strategy ? Thanks

Q: I have over $30k of ENB in my TFSA which is 100% of my TFSA. How would you recommend I diversify my TFSA. Do you recommend any combination of stocks or ETF's?

Q: I am retired and living entirely off dividend income. Would you recommend ENB or T? Is ENB yield getting high enough to be troubling?

Q: I'm down 15 percent with ENB and 20 percent with RUF.UN. To maintain the same spaces for long term holding and for tax loss purpose, is it advisable to trade ENB for TRP and RUF.UN for CAR.UN?
Thanks.
Desiree

Q: I would like to start by stating that you are very patient, answering similar questions about same stocks over and over. My question is no different. I have been considering a position in Enbridge and have been hesitating for some time now.

Its price has decreased quite dramatically in the recent past and this may (or may not) be a buying opportunity. From all the posts I`ve read, and there are many, it is clear that this is a buying opportunity (but so was it at $50+). Some concerns that I have follow:

Debt. How much debt is too much? I've made (big) mistakes with GE and others. I am trying to learn from my errors, from your input and from the community at large. My understanding is that the leverage ratio is quite high. Interest rates are on the rise. Debt (with the exception 2015 to 2016) has continuously increased during the last 5 years (where it is almost twice as large today as it was 5 years ago). In 2016 the company increased its cash balance by approximately $1B (vs prior year) but still has about $65B in debt. How long will it take to possibly pay this off and with rising interest rates are we at risk of potential default in the future? I am a long term investor and would hope to avoid surprises down the road.

Retained Earnings. This number has dropped consecutively over the last 5 years. I do not think this is a positive sign.

P/E ratio. In my opinion, this is not a growth company and has quite a high P/E ratio. Albeit net income and cash flow have increased, revenue has not really changed much over the last 4 years. At end of 2016 its revenue was a bit higher than 2013 but lower than 2014. Numbers should increase at both the bottom and top.

Any additional commentary, over and above that already expressed in numerous other similar questions you've responded too is appreciated. We must be missing something. You must see something that we don't see. It is also possible that we are over analyzing this. I mentioned a few concerns above (ex. P/E ratio) and could have found other concerns but you may be looking at specific ratios/mgmt/new business/..., otherwise every company would probably have problems. Finally, would you be a buyer of this company at this time and/or would you be buying a competitor in its place/why?

Thanks again. I am quite sure there are many people like myself that read your input, use it to make investment decisions but even more importantly, we use it to further our own abilities to make sound investment decisions, and we thank you for that.

Q: Hi 5iResearch Team,
I have held a position on ENB for 4 plus years now and it has been a disaster these past couple of years. I am thinking of swapping ENB for AQN and would like to have your comments on this intended move. Much appreciated.

Q: hi
Joe asked about your top ten juicy dividend payers. Some are barely in the 3% zone.
Are you preferring these because of safety? Growth?
Are the higher yields from the names I listed at risk of cuts? There are quite a few out there yielding 5% +
Thoughts on these higher yield names?
Thank you!!

Q: Peter & Associates

Using Enbridge Inc. as a bellwether, yearend numbers from 2000 to 2009 produced the following averages: A mean P/E of 16.5, (several years in the 13 range) a growing dividend with an average yield of 3.1 % representing 50% of earnings and 75% of 10 year TBs when they ranged from 5.4 to 4 %. A check of a recent brokerage report places its debt level at 60% which seems well in line with those over the referenced period.

Clearly the dynamics have changed. Might what is playing out in industries which traditionally need constant access to new capital, be it common or preferred shares are seen as better planning tools providing them with greater option flexibilities than fixed income alternatives? Whereas interest payments must be made, dividends must be declared? With concerns being expressed, a 10 year rate over 3% could do more harm than good, is ENB oversold and at this price too good to be true? It would seem rates would have to rise a lot to actually come into competition with the yields ENB equities offer.

If someone were investing in an ENB for yield, it would seem logical to suggest they would also seek moderate capital risks, far less than what this one has experienced. Is a projected forward P/E of 20 and a dividend over 6% which ENB claims will increase, warning signals? Assuming it is a good bellwether security, how much more downside could this stock potentially see and/or how likely/ risky the need to eventually cut the dividend ( common)? Albeit a very different industry and dynamics, energy stocks had to make cuts to reflect their financial realities; even non CAD banks went through well documented challenging times. The point, no industry is immune from economic realities and their balance sheet realities. Concerns over debt are being expressed as rates rise.

Having a well balanced portfolio is a protection but, so called bond proxies are found in multiple sectors and collectively can add up to an important exposure. There is an expression, things tend to eventually revert to their mean. That said, might we be seeing the start of that occurring since these are not generally seen as growth stocks where earning growth is the offsetting factor to deal with these high ratios?

Would very much appreciate your insight. Thank you.
Mike

Q: Hello Peter.
How does an investor know he/she is a shrewd investor or a Sucker(buy from another investor who gets the price direction right)? It is starting to feel like Holders of our prime Canadian income investments have sucker written on our forehead.

The question here for me is how to create an investment portfolio that gains from where the capital is going instead of holding investments seeing capital retreating. The current reset of Income stock prices has been quite stunning; ENB down 14% since Jan 4.
It would be great to buy ENB with a 6% Dividend......But is it the same company everyone thinks of from days gone by or has it changed and without investor positive sentiment and a stronger US$ .......it will continue to be burdened by debt and a lowering stock price?
In a diversified Portfolio holdings include income investments. But just because an investor is interested in the income stream, does not make it right to watch the capital value decline everyday.

What is it that makes buying ENB okay at $50 and then as it declined all the way to today's price of $43.11?
It kinda feels like a roll of the dice to bet on a higher price for ENB at this point in time.
What is it that makes buying ENB a shrewd investment at today's price and in the current market environment?

Thanks for the thoughtful answers in the Q&A.
Dave
(this question could have just as easily been about ALA, IPL, PPL, FTS or EMA)

Q: Hello Peter and Ryan,
I am thinking of increasing my weight to 6 percent each for Enbridge and TransCanada to take advantage of the weakness in stock declines during this week. Overall, i am down on both names but expect to keep them for 3 to 5 years as the dividends are great. My covalon technologies position has gone up alot and am thinking of selling half. Lastly, Alimentation couche tard does not seem to be getting too much attention on the positive side as the stock is simply building a base in the low 60s. I would appreciate your opinion on the four stocks please. Thanks very much.

Q: Though I don't think interest rates can increase very much, can you share which 3 or 4 utilities in Canada have the least amount (and most amount) of debt?
Thanks

Q: Hi All, is the dividend safe here with all the debt the company has?

Q: together these 5 stocks make up 10% of my portfolio. not a terribly large weighting but enough that i have felt the recent decline. I understand the correlation between interest rates and these companies that are viewed as bond proxies. Since Jan 1 2018 BCE is down 5.5%, BEP is down 7%, BIP is down 8%, TRP down over 9%, ENB down over 10% (all return % are excluding dividends). ENB is now yielding over 6% if their Q1 2018 dividend is extrapolated for the FY 2018. my question is at what point does one consider the decline overdone and step into one or a few of these? a 6% yield on ENB is looking attractive to me but do you think there is still more downside risk in these names?