Investment Q&A

Q: Hi Team

In general it seems like commodity stocks underperform the markets. Let’s look at SU, ABX and TECK which are large cap stocks in the oil, gold and copper categories. It seems commodity stocks had a good run from about 2003 - 2008. Since 2008, each of these three commodity stocks have traded in a range and are currently close to the top of said range. It seems like the commodity stocks have underperformed the overall market for the past 15 years by quite a bit because the commodity stocks are about the same price as they were in 2008. There have been times when buying commodity stocks as a “trade” was great like in 2020 when SU was $15 or in 2015 when TECK was $5 and in 2015 when ABX was $10. But today these stocks are all at the top of the range. They never break out of this range and I don’t see any evidence that they will break out of the range. If they don’t break out of the range the only direction from here is down. For example, gold is a whopping $2000, and ABX is still only $25. Oil was over $100 recently and SU still never broke out of the range. When the markets tank the commodity stocks usually tank as well…. they don’t act as a hedge. There are exceptions like in March 2020 when the market tanked, and ABX did quite well for 4 months. But today, ABX is back to $25 where it was in Feb 2020. I understand diversification is important but why add commodity stocks to a (long term) portfolio if they never perform well. The commodity stocks are finally paying good dividends but so do many other stocks in different sectors.

Question #1 – please let me know if you agree or disagree to the above. If you disagree, what is the compelling argument to buy large cap (safe) commodity stocks unless they are trading at the bottom of the range.

Question #2 – is there an etf that tracks the Canadian stock market that does not include commodity stocks?

Thanks for your great input to your members questions.
Greg

Q: Hi, Energy sector has witnessed a sharp sell off last week, with market and decline in Oil prices. Recession worries seem to be growing higher and with ECB sticking to 0.50% rate hike, market seems to be expecting Fed to stay course with its hawkish stance, despite recent turbulence in banking sector. Some large Energy traders are reported to have lightened their positions significantly, early in the week. We as well as most of 5i members are simple retail buy and hold investors and do not have access to advanced tools/money flow and other expertise.

With the recent market backdrop in the sector, and Oil/NG prices flirting with new lows, has your view, in terms of maintaining about 10% weighing in the sector, changed ? Or, do you believe that market concerns are of short term in nature and there is value and a strong case to remain invested in the sector for say, at least 12-24 months ?

Mr. John O'Connell of Davis Rea was on BNN, warning viewers to stay away from the Energy sector, claiming that cost of production of most companies is higher than current prices. (which appears to be a questionable claim). On the other end, there is Mr Eric Nuttal, an expert in the sector with $2 Bln AUM, with completely opposite views.

Thank You

Q: Pretty ugly day, particularly for oil. Is this just more negative market sentiment re banking fallout? Does your opinion still stand to pick away on the buy side?

Q: Oil stocks as varied as SU,PXT, and ARX are all getting pummelled in the early trading today. Is this a buying opportunity or an early sign of disenchantment with oil. Is this just a side effect of the SVB failure?

Q: Thoughts on latest earnings and outlook for each ? Thank you.

Q: what are your 3 top stocks related to the oil industry?

Q: Hi Team,

ENB, CNQ, SU are about 7.5% of my CAD portfolio. Is it ok to hold both CNQ and SU or are they too similar? If they are too similar then which other stock should replace one of these? My investments lean towards growth and dividend growth.

I have held Visa for over two years. I was hoping it will benefit from post panademic opening. So far it has done little. On valuations it appears overvalued. So do other payment stocks. Any suggestions?

Thanks
RR

Q: Some of my weightings have become low and wondering which one of these currently would be the value to add to.

Q: I read that Jan 16, 2023 Suncor amended an agreement with Elliott to add an additional director for Jan 31, 2023 to Mar 17, 2023. Why would SU add a director for 45days?
Thanks

Q: I see in one of your latest answers your liking su over cnq wondering what criteria it is that leads you in that direction? Also i hold cnq and wcp and looking to add to my oil and gas holdings. Would you add to my current holdings, or add a third or fourth position say in tou and or su? Thx

Q: I have 20 Thousand US Cash in My US RRIF acc't. I am looking at deploying it into 5 stocks for income. I don't have any oil sector stocks or ETF, Reits or banks.Looking for idea's which could bring dividends and growth over time.Tks 5i take as many credits as required. 79 year old.Do not need any money to pay my RRIF monthly payment as I have Can account with ample cash for 18 months

Q: Hi There,
Do you expect the energy and resources sectors to continue to do well in 2023? I'm contemplating selling SU and/or Teck and moving the money into a US mid cap ETF such as VO. Apple to Oranges I know, however looking for the best risk/reward scenario.
You thoughts please.
Thank you

Q: Hi Peter, Ryan, and Team,

For this year's TFSA, and being underrepresented in energy, please rank CNQ, SU, and TOU. Any other suggestions would be welcome.

Thanks in advance.

Q: Hi 5i,
I wonder if you could give us some guidance. My wife holds the above in her RSP, with all being more or less a full position except for ENB at 2X, BCE, CM, and SU at 1.5X each and CHR and DXT at .5X each.
She has until the end of 2024 to convert to a RRIF and currently has $40K to contribute to her RSP and has the room for that contribution.
She would like to invest in some different names, or divest/reinvest in those she has, with an eye to maximizing value before the conversion to a RRIF and to continue thereafter. She's not asking for much - just safety, capital appreciation and income ...!
Based on this info, can you offer any thoughts on new names to add or which of the existing to either pull back on, or dump entirely if that extreme measure seems warranted?
Thank you 5i, and we wish you all an excellent holiday season.
Peter

Q: Hi 5i,

In your answer to a question on December 1st, where it was about your interview with Kornel Szejber of Build Wealth Canada, you included in the list of stocks to buy and forget, Suncor stock. Was this a typo? Despite all its intrinsic qualities, SU is in such a cyclical and volatile sector, where companies have so little control over their destiny. If it wasn't a mistake, could you elaborate a bit on this choice?

And simply, does the recent decline of the stock make it a good entry point?


Thank you very much.

Q: Hi, BNN had a guest on Friday last week, Javed Mirza, who is the Chief Technical Strategist with Canaccord Genuity. He mentioned of a bull market cycle from 2018 to 2022, where Energy stocks enjoyed some of the best gains. As per his analysis, a new 4 years bull market cycle began this year (2022-26), where the best sectors to own will be Materials, Industrials and Financials. Interestingly, as per his view, Energy sector, which he strongly recommended in early 2020, has already run its course and these stocks are not likely to get further traction ( he expressed same views for Suncor ). Addressing a question on Shopify, he compared the chart with Bosch ( Ex Valeant Pharma ) and suggested that SHOP stock could languish for many years and should end up like Valeant. His advice was to stay away from Energy Sector and stocks like SHOP. 2-3 years ago, Mr Mirza, during an appearance on BNN, made a strong case to own Constellation Software, and he was spot on. I think, his view on the 3 favorite sectors, Materials/Gold, Industrials and Financials make some sense, but his comments on Energy Sector and SHOP left me confused. Would appreciate your thoughts !! Thank You

Q: Hi 5i,

What’s your perspective on the Energy sector going into 2023? I’ve had big wins on all 3x stocks, and am trying to decide whether to trim positions in the face of a potential global recession.

Thank you!

Q: Good morning. I watched your interview with Kornel Szejber from Build Wealth Canada. On it you discussed immunization which was most helpful. You also mentioned that you thought of CNR and CP as set it and forget it stocks. With that train of thought in mind which other canadian dividend stocks would you put in this same category? If I was to purchase 10 dividend stocks to take advantage of the dividend tax credit in my non registered acct which would be my main source of income which stocks should I consider.
Thanks
Victoria

Q: Hi, What is your assessment of Suncor after today's highly anticipated investor's day and stock selling off apparently triggered by company's decision to retain Petro Canada gas station, which has 18% market share of Canadian fuel distribution business. One of the reasons, company assigned was the safety net/cushion this business provides during the times of company facing headwinds of lower demand for oil. Looks like, market was expecting a decision otherwise. which would have helped rerating of shares and narrow the discount, stock trades at, relative to its peers. How would company fund its purchase of Fort Hill Oil sands, from Tech Resources, due to close in 2023 ? How does this all play with activist investor and overall impact on stock price ? Thank You

Q: Hi, Why has Suncor stock sold off today morning, while Energy sector bounced ? Is this related to company's decision Not to sell its Petro Canada to add to existing position ? Thanks