Investment Q&A

Q: What do you think the main reason for the current decline is among these banks. Is it fear of loan losses, fear of what the companies are to report next week or the sell in May mentality? How much pessimism is baked into these stocks already?
Thanks, Mike

Q: Not only B of A (today's Globe) but quite a few analysts and BNN Guests say that Canadian Banks are going to take a hit b/c of earnings, poor reserves, Loan write offs etc., With that in mind is it worth selling BNS,RBC,TD and buy them back later ? In RRSPs/TFSAs. So, capital gains/loss is a non issue. I "lose" 60 $ in trading fees. But selling now can save me from losing a lot more if they tumble a lot AND I don't have to wait for a longer period of time for them to recover. ( You know the cliché, if a stock goes down by 50%, I have to make 100% to break even!)

Q: Can you please explain the losses in the big five Canadian Banks shares. I can’t for the following reasons so would appreciate your thoughts before I start to increase my exposure.

Their mtge portfolios are mostly insured , ultimately by the govt. the balance of their mtge loans are normally at significant discounts to the property values.

The new loans being made by the government will likely be backed by the government , not the banks.

They all have a long history of not cutting dividends, BMO has not in 190 years and BNS in 188 years and I expect the other three banks to be in the same approximate time frame of no dividend cuts . Unlikely you will find a US back or an Insurance company that can say the same.

They also over reserve their loan loss provisions in order to keep their profits from the wild fluctuations we see in the US.

Thanks

Q: Morning
Currently I hold CIBC. BNS. TD ROYAL
All are down
Would it make sense to sell cibc and top up TD and BNS.?
Thank you for your calm approach these days
Michael

Q: This is in response to an answer you gave on an earlier question today. As you may have gathered I am rather new to options. I wonder, first of all, whether you might be able to suggest a resource to understand the basics. I have been doing well but have stayed pretty close to the bit I do understand. Mostly covered calls. But, related to the question I asked earlier about the covered call on TD, to avoid capital gains, could I not buy back the call before expiration? I know this might cost me a bit of money. But, it would allow me to take the chance of trying to make some option premiums on some of the stocks I own, without the worry about capital gains and taxes. I am not familiar enough with this to know, though, whether it could be a useful strategy.
thanks

Q: Hello 5i,
This is a general question on investing. Say if i own TD, for instance, and i don't want to lose it, or something similar to it. Is it a reasonable practice to sell a covered call on TD and at the same time and roughly the same date, sell a put on something like BNS. I don't really mind if i end up owning the both of them, either.
Thanks

Q: I am retired and rely on dividends. I have owned JPM,RY,TD & BNS for a while. The only bank that I am in a loss position is BNS. I am thinking that BNS will continue to lag the other 2 due to the latin america markets they operate in and the ability of these markets to recover from Covid 19. My thought is to sell BNS and put that money to work in TD. Your thoughts?

Q: I own TD and BNS. BNS has underperformed for years. I was thinking of keeping TD, but replacing BNS with RY. What are your thoughts on this?

Q: I depend on the big 5 banks and, to a lesser extent, the telecoms , for income reliability.
For example, I read recently that BMO has a 191 year (?) record of uninterrupted dividend paying.
Are you able to list the payout records for the other listed above.
Thank you

Q: Wells Fargo has taken a big hit recently. Do you think it might be worth buying some shares in this bank? Is the dividend yield (currently at about 7.4%) sustainable?

I have held BNS for quite some time and am down about 20%. Just wondering if I should add to my position (about 1% of my portfolio) or sell. I am assuming that the high dividend will keep being paid (as most experts say Canadian banks don't cut dividends).

Q: Given that my Margin account has the 5 big banks and 2 Telecoms paying dividends on a periodic basis and that I'm not "too" concerned that these will cut their dividends, would it be wise to implement trailing stop loss orders for these in case there is another retest of the lows of March. Had I done that at the beginning of the year, I could have picked up the above at much reduce prices with resulting greater dividend yields. And would using the same procedure for my RIF account (which has mainly REITs) be beneficial to capture the current values to avoid further losses there.
Your comments. Thank you

Q: Hi Peter: When I sit back and take a look at the big picture and review how my portfolio performed during COVID-19 (so far), I try to see what lessons I can learn, then turn to how to apply those lessons to make my portfolio stronger.

I am a retired, dividend-income investor. I am a huge believer in asset allocation and have designed a portfolio, in my opinion, to be reasonably well diversified, although heavy to Canada. It WAS roughly 70% equities (including 32% foreign content) and 30% fixed income (roughly 15% insured annuities, 15% Fisgard Capital...both averaging in the 5-6% pre-tax range and minor cash). My equities are mostly blue chip, dividend payers, as you can see above. The 3 mutual funds are a very minor part of my portfolio, especially Eric's Energy Fund (<2%). I also receive a company pension and CPP-OAS which, when included, drops my equities to roughly 32%.

I use various metrics to monitor my portfolio, such as P/E, P/BV, P/CF, P/S, Beta, ROE, Div growth, Payout%, technical indicators like 200 mda. I am normally a buy-and-hold investor who trims/adds around a core position.

Periodically I measure how "at risk" my portfolio is relative to the overall market. I do this by prorating my portfolio using Beta. Based on equities only, I averaged 0.68 and for my entire portfolio I averaged 0.44. So, one would think that if the overall market (TSX) was to drop 30%, then I would have thought my portfolio would drop 44% to 68% of that, being in the range of 13% (overall) to 20% (equities only).

In actual fact, my entire portfolio dropped 27% from peak to trough vs the expected 13%...over double! I understand that EVERYTHING was sold off...almost no exceptions. So what do we learn from this and what changes should we consider? Do we accept that "sxxt happens" once in a while...you can't predict every event, accept it and move on? Should we consider increasing the cash component as a buffer? Or...is there something else to be learned here?

Thanks for you help...much appreciated...Steve

Q: Hi 5i - Retired income investor but also interested in growth. I have been holding FFH.PR.K:CDN for a number of years. Decent income but limited growth opportunity. It represents 1% of my portfolio. Portfolio analytics indicates I should increase my exposure to communications services. I've been thinking of selling FFH and buying BCE which I don't hold or adding to my current Telus holding (at 2.5%). Other options could be adding to Fiera (only 1% holding) or to TD (3.6%). Appreciate your thoughts and other options that provide relatively safe income with a greater long term upside. Really appreciate the good work you guys do!

Q: I have all 5 big banks and the 2 telecoms in my Margin Account for income purposes. I sold FRU and IPL because the dividend was reduced significantly. So I have some cash available to top up.
Given the Banks have Yields and Pay Out Ratios as follows (BMO 6.34% - 46.83%; BNS 5.90% - 44.47%; CM 7.49% - 36.67%; RY 5.25% - 44.84%; TD 5.82% - 44.76%) I am considering CM as the best yield and lowest Pay Out. Would you concur?
Thanks

Q: Risk of small business bankruptcys, loan losses - would this be a Material Risk for BNS given the countries they do business in, or would the risk be smaller because of the countries they do business in - or perhaps the loans to small business is a minor part of their over all portfolio (meaning their loans are to larger business with stronger balance sheets).

Q: Thank you again for this great service.
I am down about 25% on BNS (and I have no losses for tax purposes and will have more offsetting gains from other holdings). Thinking of selling BNS and buying POW which in my view has more upside. I would appreciate your advice on what to do with proceeds from BNS sale i.e., other suggestions please (I am very well diversified).

Q: Hi,
Could you please comment on commercial impaired loan growth with respect to the Canadian banks prior to the Cov 19 crisis ? Have they increased their reserves appropriately ?
Thanks

Q: In this covid-19 crisis,BNS & other big 5 can banks have been following the orders/instructions/requests of both OSFI & the Fed.Gov't.For example,deferring mortgage & credit payments,reducing interest rate on their charge cards,lending supported by the backup of the Fed.etc. What will be the impact on BNS especially on its revenue & bottom line? Txs for u usual great services & advices.

Q: I have roughly equal weights in NA, RY and BNS and a half position of TD in a TFSA. Even at the worst point of the decline (so far), I have stayed above water on on all but BNS.

As a retiree who loves his solid dividends, the banks are attractive to me and my total holdings are likely higher than you would recommend. I am wondering if I should use the correction to move out of NA and redistribute the funds into RY and BNS. (No room to add money to the TFSA.)

Your thoughts?

Q: Morning ,
Relative to your recent comments on Canadian Banks and shorts , What % of shorts does it take to make a meaningful impact on the upside. Have benefited in shorts recently in Snap, Shop and ETSY . Cut my investing teeth in the Nortel, Rim , JDSU days and yet my banks have been my best long term move.
Thanks
Greg