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Fortinet Inc. (FTNT $114.07)
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Palo Alto Networks Inc. (PANW $207.88)
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SentinelOne Inc. Class A (S $16.59)
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Zscaler Inc. (ZS $152.13)
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CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. (CRWD $527.77)
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Cloudflare Inc. Class A (NET $196.13)
Q: Hello team,
If I believe that in the upcoming age of AI, Security & Sovereignty is about moving beyond "antivirus" and looking at how a nation or an organization protects its physical and digital independence. In the era dominated by AI and space, no matter how advanced or important, any entity may be rendered crippled/useless, if they can be hijacked, shut down, or dictated by outside forces.
In such a world, the Security & Sovereignty pillar is the strategic framework that protects Strategic Autonomy. It ensures that critical infrastructure—from satellite constellations to the power grid—can operate independently and securely regardless of geopolitical tensions or cyber-kinetic warfare.
That said, which two company will be the compatible pair for this theme? I have listed some of their pros and cons below, but I am interested in what you think about this thesis and what will be your picks when you also factor in their financials, valuation, and execution risks/strengths. Please mention if you have better ideas outside these five.
Thank you for taking the time & effort to help us understand the complex world of investing one question at a time.
1. Zscaler (ZS)
The Pros: 50% haircut, P/S of roughly 7.5x, 70-80% gross margins, profitable, massive cash flow; built for the cloud; the “Zero Trust Exchange” makes the network invisible to unauthorized users.
The Cons: Struggling Sales Execution and Platform Competition (larger tech conglomerates are now offering "good enough" security bundles for free.)
2. Leonardo (FINMY)
The Pros: Massive Backlog (€46.6 billion), Sovereign Protection through the "Michelangelo Dome”; Credit Strength; defense and space wings are soaring.
The Cons: Political Risk (based in Italy); Civilian Aerostructures Drag (2028 breakeven)
3. CrowdStrike (CRWD)
The Pros: Market dominance, Falcon platform is the "must-have" tool for Fortune 500 CISOs; The "Flywheel" Effect: Every new customer adds data to their AI, creating a powerful competitive moat.
The Cons: Valuation Friction with a forward P/E over 90x, zero room for error; Saturating Market forcing it to move into Log Management/Identity, where fierce competition is worse
4. Palo Alto Networks (PANW)
The Pros: Platformization Power, offering a "Unified Security Fabric" which allows companies to replace 10 different vendors with one Palo Alto contract; Software Pivot: from "Hardware Firewalls" to "Software-as-a-Service," accounting for a growing portion of their revenue.
The Cons: Integration Complexity due to aggressive acquisitions; Margin Dilution by offering "free transition periods" to customers suppressing short-term cash flow meaningfully.
5. SentinelOne (S)
The Pros: Pure AI Heritage, their "Purple AI" was built from the ground up to be autonomous, requiring fewer human security analysts; Disruption Potential: a "hungry underdog," winning contracts by undercutting on price and demonstrating faster/better detection speeds.
The Cons: Path to Profitability still long despite crossing the $1 billion revenue mark recently; Volatility: prone to wild 20%–30% swings on even minor guidance adjustments
If I believe that in the upcoming age of AI, Security & Sovereignty is about moving beyond "antivirus" and looking at how a nation or an organization protects its physical and digital independence. In the era dominated by AI and space, no matter how advanced or important, any entity may be rendered crippled/useless, if they can be hijacked, shut down, or dictated by outside forces.
In such a world, the Security & Sovereignty pillar is the strategic framework that protects Strategic Autonomy. It ensures that critical infrastructure—from satellite constellations to the power grid—can operate independently and securely regardless of geopolitical tensions or cyber-kinetic warfare.
That said, which two company will be the compatible pair for this theme? I have listed some of their pros and cons below, but I am interested in what you think about this thesis and what will be your picks when you also factor in their financials, valuation, and execution risks/strengths. Please mention if you have better ideas outside these five.
Thank you for taking the time & effort to help us understand the complex world of investing one question at a time.
1. Zscaler (ZS)
The Pros: 50% haircut, P/S of roughly 7.5x, 70-80% gross margins, profitable, massive cash flow; built for the cloud; the “Zero Trust Exchange” makes the network invisible to unauthorized users.
The Cons: Struggling Sales Execution and Platform Competition (larger tech conglomerates are now offering "good enough" security bundles for free.)
2. Leonardo (FINMY)
The Pros: Massive Backlog (€46.6 billion), Sovereign Protection through the "Michelangelo Dome”; Credit Strength; defense and space wings are soaring.
The Cons: Political Risk (based in Italy); Civilian Aerostructures Drag (2028 breakeven)
3. CrowdStrike (CRWD)
The Pros: Market dominance, Falcon platform is the "must-have" tool for Fortune 500 CISOs; The "Flywheel" Effect: Every new customer adds data to their AI, creating a powerful competitive moat.
The Cons: Valuation Friction with a forward P/E over 90x, zero room for error; Saturating Market forcing it to move into Log Management/Identity, where fierce competition is worse
4. Palo Alto Networks (PANW)
The Pros: Platformization Power, offering a "Unified Security Fabric" which allows companies to replace 10 different vendors with one Palo Alto contract; Software Pivot: from "Hardware Firewalls" to "Software-as-a-Service," accounting for a growing portion of their revenue.
The Cons: Integration Complexity due to aggressive acquisitions; Margin Dilution by offering "free transition periods" to customers suppressing short-term cash flow meaningfully.
5. SentinelOne (S)
The Pros: Pure AI Heritage, their "Purple AI" was built from the ground up to be autonomous, requiring fewer human security analysts; Disruption Potential: a "hungry underdog," winning contracts by undercutting on price and demonstrating faster/better detection speeds.
The Cons: Path to Profitability still long despite crossing the $1 billion revenue mark recently; Volatility: prone to wild 20%–30% swings on even minor guidance adjustments
