Investment Q&A

Q: Hello Peter,
I have been meaning to get your opinion even before the two-day wild ride and this question is not based on today’s aftermath. And I will speak from both sides of the fence. As usual, I want your perspective.
You typically respond to reader’s questions with a 5-year outlook. However, I think that the 5 yr business plan is outdated except maybe for utilities and commodity producers. And even then, with instantaneous data enabling policy definition, the peak to trough and back for business cycles are short.
High growth companies typically do not have a moat as they rely on transformative technology as the enabler. Today Amazon finds its digital commerce saturating and looks to cloud services for growth. Shopify is looking at vertical integration with logistics and financial services while the world moves towards open-source digital commerce. Game, set, match.
Now I step to the other side of the fence. Probability of a soft landing -very small? The fed cannot control supply but can control demand. Housing, lumber, commodities consumption diminishes just as supply ramps up in an inflationary environment hoping to absorb costs. Discretionary, industrials slow down and drag commodities.
Where am I going? If my thinking is correct, my investment decision should be based on a 2yr or shorter period return. So, between now April 5 and the end of seasonal strength next Feb; is it tech- SHOP and TOI, or Energy and Commodities? What about Gold and Silver? Is it NVDA and CRWD or QCOM and MSFT? And I am not looking to hedge but make portfolio changes, swinging for the fences. Or is it too late for sell in May?
I look forward to your opinion.
Regards

Q: Thank you for your great service I look at the questions almost every day. My question is about Shopify it looks to me that it has broken some support level. Could this mean the next level of support is back in the march lows of 2020? My technical analysis is not very good so please correct me if I’m wrong.

Q: Hi Peter and Team;
Thanks for the info and advice on PKI.
I have made a good gain and sold a 5% position in my RRIF.
Could you offer 3 CDN and 3 US that you would be comfortable in starting today with a 2.5 % for long term investing in a well balanced RRIF? Would you lean towards US or CND for GROWTH?
Thanks for the excellent analysis!

Q: Hi Peter,

Your thoughts on FB or Shop at these levels?

Any other beat down names with a strong upside ?

Thanks
Harry

Q: Good Morning
I have the following stocks in my tfsa all down nvei stc shop
Would you add a small amount to each or take a larger position in one now or wait? What strategy would you follow?
Thks
Marcel

Q: Based on todays prices, which of the beaten up tech is the "best" (most likely to do well moving forward, best monopoly / moat safety, most safe earnings, best books today, best P/E) to buy for a long term hold (over ten years)?

qualifying them on the above characteristics would be appreciated or any other variable that you feel is important.

If my list missed any other tech considerations, please let me know.

thanks

Ernie

Q: More of a comment really.

Some members of 5i are having conniptions about SHOP. Me too. Nobody likes to see their investment tank any more than I do. But I am diversified so am not getting too hurt by the action of SHOP. The only advice I can offer is that if you have an outsized position in any stock, not just SHOP, maybe you should rethink your strategy. If you are well diversified, just suck it up. This too will pass.

I am pleased with 5i but markets do go down from time. And this is just one of those times. The market gained so much in the last 6 or 8 months that us market watchers are not least bit surprised about our current downturn.

Q: Hi Peter and Ryan,

With interest rates going up next month would like to know your thoughts on the short term effect this will have on the above tech companies, will there be a discount after the rates rise.

As always
Thank you
Anthony

Q: I realize the eps miss.
Is there anything besides supply chains which would be the main factor in the pre-market 10% drop ?
Would be grateful for a quick response if its possible.

Q: Hi Peter and team,

Do know where I can find institutions, such as Canadian Pension, etc, are buying LSPD or any other stock at current level? I heard some institutional buying LSPD, could you please confirm and have more information and list a few of such buying?

Thanks a lot

Q: For a 5 year hold, With the 23% drop in FB, is it better to sell at a loss in a registered account and buy stocks such as Roku, afrm, upst, Netflix, Shopify? These stocks are also down lately. Would you make the same decision for a 2 year hold?

Q: Following up on my last question on buying SHOP in US or CDN funds, I am not sure I was clear with my question based on your answer. I have both a CDN and a. US TFSA investment account. As a Canadian living in Canada, I can buy the stock from either account. Does it make more sense to buy this company from my US account as they do most of their business in the US. In the long run will I benefit from doing it that way ?

Q: Hello, as a Canadian, does it make sense to buy SHOP:US using US funds that exist in a TFSA investment account VS buying the equivalent SHOP.CA from a CDN TFSA account ?

Q: Hi team,

Which of these 2 would you buy today?

Thanks

Q: Having held SHOP (TSX) for a number of years, it's discouraging to watch it whither away. While this downturn plays out, would it make sense to short the US version of the stock? Obviously, there are considerable risks involved and it would require close attention for entries and exits, but it seems like this might mitigate some of the losses. Or is this a dumb idea? Thanks.

Q: Please classify each of the above companies as one of the following:
LOWER RISK
MEDIUM RISK
HIGHER RISK
Thanks for your great service - use as many questions as you wish. ram

Q: Any reason you see for the sharp 7% drop in the stock today?


Sheldon

Q: Recently held LSPD and watch it fall fall and fall. Wish I had sold some.
Have held shop for several years and am now watching it tumble. Understand both are growth stocks and there is a rotation. Is there a price point that Shop would hit where you think one should sell some. Are my concerns justified or is it a wait and be patient and it will return to 2000.00. Realize you do not have a crystal ball but need your advice.

Q: I am a 49 year old Canadian with $50,000 Cdn in TFSA and $25,000 in RRSP. I would like some names to build a portfolio. High growth. Risk tolerance high. How much cash should I hold for dip buying. Right now I am overweight TSLA. It seems to me MSFT is a very good stock and I like its outlook and steady growth. A trusted friend recommends TSLA. Please suggest other names including ETFs. Could you rank the names with percentage allotments? 15 year outlook.

Q: Thanks Peter. Your services have been very educational and rewarding. Had a good year. This is my first year of subscription and I just upgraded to the full Investor suite services. All the Q&A and research reports have been very helpful. It has made me more disciplined in my decisions as well as provided greater insights to the Investment process

As the end of the year, I am reflecting on the investments done in the year. I seek you opinion to opinion some of those as under. Position size or Industry allocation is not an issue. Time horizon is long 4+. No tax consequences and have patience; there is no need to raise cash

A. Stocks with above average returns-

ATZ 62%, TOI 72%, SIS 39%, TFII 19%, DOO 19%, NVEI 49%, WSP 32%, SHOP 19%, GSY 72%, U 106%

Do you recommend continuing to hold all of them? Would you consolidate sell some and add to some?
Would you endorse Investing new fund in 1 or 2 of them at current price to go to full position

B. Under performing stocks (loss/down)-

AT 56%, CTS 8%, EGLX 40%, LSPD 8%, MRS 69%, QST 35%, XBC 52%, Well 26%, AMGN 10%

Do you still have the conviction in these stocks? If yes which are best 3 and why? Do you recommend selling some of them or adding to some of them?

Again, thanks for your excellent services and deduct as many credits as appropriate