- Micron Technology Inc. (MU)
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
- Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD)
- Axon Enterprise Inc. (AXON)
- Construction Partners Inc. (ROAD)
- Shift4 Payments Inc. Class A (FOUR)
- Cellebrite DI Ltd. (CLBT)
Q: Good Day,
I, like many 5i folks, have enjoyed a sizable run up on NVDA. It is now the largest company in the world, north of 3.5T. Now that we are this size, is it safe to say that it is unlikely it will double within the 18-24 month 'safe window'? From here, a Double makes it approx 14-15% of the entire US Stock market (google says it's currently about 54T).
Now that many AI models are advancing/pushing focus to the next stages, inference, etc, and with MSFT working with AMD on a chip for such, and those chips also requiring HBM3 memory, would there be an argument for managin ones NVDA position down to a more normal size, IE not overly overweight, and picking up positions in AMD and MU, for example?
I know that NVDA is optimally positioned to capitalize, with excellent margins, market share, etc, but at this size, I feel like NVDA losing even 5% market share would be punished, even though it would still have the lions share. But if AMD took that 5%, that would be a significant increase for it and could precipitate it being the next T market cap with a bit of momentum.
What are your thoughts on this type of logic? Are their other companies you think have a better chance of doubling in the coming year or 2?
Thanks for everything,
James
I, like many 5i folks, have enjoyed a sizable run up on NVDA. It is now the largest company in the world, north of 3.5T. Now that we are this size, is it safe to say that it is unlikely it will double within the 18-24 month 'safe window'? From here, a Double makes it approx 14-15% of the entire US Stock market (google says it's currently about 54T).
Now that many AI models are advancing/pushing focus to the next stages, inference, etc, and with MSFT working with AMD on a chip for such, and those chips also requiring HBM3 memory, would there be an argument for managin ones NVDA position down to a more normal size, IE not overly overweight, and picking up positions in AMD and MU, for example?
I know that NVDA is optimally positioned to capitalize, with excellent margins, market share, etc, but at this size, I feel like NVDA losing even 5% market share would be punished, even though it would still have the lions share. But if AMD took that 5%, that would be a significant increase for it and could precipitate it being the next T market cap with a bit of momentum.
What are your thoughts on this type of logic? Are their other companies you think have a better chance of doubling in the coming year or 2?
Thanks for everything,
James