Investment Q&A

Q: hi,
can I get your opinion on the Aug. 9th Globe and Mail article by David Rosenberg and Bhawana Chhabra, "...It's time for investors to revisit their asset mix." And are you able to provide a few Canadian dollar ETF's to buy ( US treasury index? other? ), if you would in fact recommend that?
thanks, Chris

Q: I hold some TLT and have obviously entered into too early. But I am prepared to be patient.
My question is more about the Billionaire Ackman article last week where he states he is shorting the 30 year treasuries. Now, is he doing that simply because he feels the it will be a long time before the Feds actually start lowering rates or, is there something else out there that I do not understand about long treasuries?

Q: Good morning,

With bond rates moving higher can you suggest your top 3 bond etf's to gain exposure at a low cost. Would holding these in a registered or cash account be best? As always thank you for your time

Q: Supposing that an investor had three registered accounts of roughly equal size that they wanted to change from equity ETF's to a fixed income allocation for their portfolio, and these accounts would have to be converted to RIF's in 6 years. Let's also assume that we get one or two more small rate hikes this year, then interest rates flatten and begin to come down slowly over the following several years. Which of three options would you choose on a risk/reward basis? 1. Just hold money market funds currently paying 4.5%+ 2. Barbell XSB and XLB using two accounts, and put XBB (or ZAG) in the third (avg. yield close to 3 %? with potential cap. gains) 3. Put TLT in all three, yield close to 3%? maybe highest potential cap. gain? With the BOC policy rate going up close to 5 points since the start of 2022 the bond funds above fell anywhere from 10%+ to 30%+. Does that imply that if the BOC rate went back down 2.5% that they would rise 5%+ to 15%+, or you can't make that kind of straight line assumption? Maybe there is a way better option, but I don't really want to tie up funds in GIC's and don't want to try to pick individual bonds either. I also considered something like PSA but no cap gain upside there and the money markets probably pay as much interest or more. Thanks for your thoughts.

Q: I noticed in your disclosure you have an interest in TLT, I hold ZTL which I assume is comparable?

Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF as of May 31, 2023 has 75% in 0-3 month T-bills & 6% in 7-10 years with no exposure beyond that.

Could you help me understand the risk/reward difference between the ultra-short term and ultra-long term T-bills and which I would be better with in todays market and assumption interest rates may have peaked, or should I cover both ends?

Q: Today the US Fed announced a pause in its rate hikes however stating the next move will be up. Looking back in history I see that 90% of the time a pause in the fed rate is followed by a reduction in rates and not an increase. If history repeats itself I'm thinking bonds should start to increase in price. To take advantage, if my thinking is correct, should I hold short, medium or long bonds. I have held BLV for some time now and am in a loss position but am thinking of adding a wee bit more.

Appreciate any comments you have.

Q: Hello 5i
We currently hold CBO, CLF & XRB at 25/25/50% all as long term holdings in a slight loss position. I believe we are currently at (or very near) peak interest rates. Do you have any suggestions to bond replacements that might be better positioned to capture rate reductions for these holdings. (not accounting for the bonus of tax loss selling)
Again many thanks
Les

Q: If Congress fails to increase the debt limit, how do you think it will impact the price of TLT and XLB? Thank you.

Q: I am trying to understand what seems to me as unusual volatility in treasuries recently - especially Monday. Has this sort of thing happened in the past ?

Q: David Rosenberg has recommended a mix split nearly evenly among long-dated US treasuries, high-yield bond and high-paying dividend stocks for investors seeking a favourable return with reduced overall volatility. My questions are:
1) are long-dated US treasuries the same as bonds?
2) how long would you go?
3)could you recommend a long-dated US treasury ETF and a high-yield bond?
thanks

Q: Could you make a case for each of these two Treasury ETF's ? Would you favour one over the other ?

Do you prefer other Treasury ETF's to these two ?

Q: Rick Rieder from Blackrock posted that fixed income is setting up for generational returns. Also "on a relative valuation basis, stocks cannot be considered the cheaper asset". Would you agree that its shaping up to be a big opportunity to buy fixed assets, and if so what tops your list? Thx

Q: Can you name a few securities that you would recommend in an effort to capitalize on the potential bond market opportunity as outlined in your March 16th market report?

Please rank and provide a brief explanation for the ranking.

Q: If interest rates and inflation are going to peak, do you think these ETFs (XLF, IAK TLT) have opportunity now? If so which one has most potential right now? Thank you.

Q: What would be your top 3 bond ETF picks for both Canadian and US bonds? Is now a good time to put money into these?

Q: Is it reasonable to sell TLT and replace with EDV to register a capital loss but keep exposure to long dated treasuries. As well as a better yield while waiting.
Thank you

Q: What would be the best way to get exposure to US Treasury Bills for inclusion in a registered account (assuming no tax hit from holding them there)?

Q: what % weighting would you feel appropriate for TLT in my balanced Portfolio. If rates start to fall hard in the next 2 years and TLT starts going up. What will happen to the dollar.
Will the U.S. dollar rise in comparison to the CDN dollar or Fall ?
I'm wondering if i should buy the hedged ETF ZTL.F instead of TLT
Thanks Gord

Q: What are your favourite Canadian bond ETFs given the current circumstances and looking ahead a couple of years.
Thank you!

Q: If one believes the 2 year note yield will fall, what are best ideas to play this scenario?