Investment Q&A

Q: Hi,

SMCI submitted 10K before the deadline. The company had provided forward guidance. What is the probability they wood goof up the next few quarters - specially when coming back from the brink.
Given its current valuation, would you trust the management and invest for the next few quarters? If yes, would you consider a full position or even going overweight?
Regards
Rajiv

Q: Hello folks:

Help me to "decipher" the crazy price action of SMCI :) From 40 to 66 in 5 days! (approximate)

Is it because of

a. Short covering
b. that it is deemed safe from being delisted from Nasdaq.
c. Market loving what they see in their recent releases and TRUST the data this time around!! Borrowing a phrase from you, have all the cockroaches been squashed :)

Apparently Feb 25th is the D Day for the stock. Any predictions for post Feb 25th announcements. Will it go down? ? 47 is the support if you look at the "inverse head and shoulder neckline" or up 70+ 200 Day MA. Forgive my rudimentary Technical Analysis!

Q: Previously, I noticed that the 5i team held SMCI stock, which was sold during the downturn. I'd love to hear your thoughts on the recent earnings release and the company's future prospects. Is SMCI a buy or hold at this point? Your insight is greatly appreciated, thank you.

Q: Comments on the Deepseek news? Thanks

Q: Could you provide me with a few a few names that you feel will benefit from the build up of Data Centers to support AI and would Comfort Systems be on that list? Thank you.

Q: I have made some updates to my portfolio before heading into the new year and am looking for your thoughts on total portfolio. I have it all in TFSA and am 28 years old with a long time horizon. Could you give me your opinion over next 1, 3, 5 years of portfolio.

What changes might you make to this portfolio to stengthen it?

Portfolio Breakdown:
Stock Amount Invested (USD) % of Portfolio
NVDA $6,500 12.04%
SHOP $2,840 (converted from CAD) 5.26%
AMZN $2,650 4.91%
MSFT $2,520 4.67%
MELI $2,483 4.60%
PLTR $2,250 4.17%
TSM $2,000 3.70%
CRWD $1,830 3.39%
GOOGL $1,780 3.30%
TTD $1,767 3.28%
ISRG $2,180 (converted from CAD) 4.04%
META $2,150 (converted from CAD) 3.98%
BRK.B $1,470 2.72%
AXP $1,560 2.89%
LLY $1,500 2.78%
DIS $1,280 (converted from CAD) 2.37%
NBIS $840 1.56%
CELH $700 1.30%
SMCI $392 0.73%
SPCE $188 0.35%
XRP $120 (converted from CAD) 0.22%

Thanks,
Dan

Q: Hello and Happy New Year 5i
I learned about SMCI from 5i and had great luck with it last year! Thanks! I stuck to my goals and sold all of my original investment to remain in the stock with "house money". I don't have any intentions of being a day trader but the timing of my purchase allowed me to double my money in about 4 weeks and that was my goal over a period of a year or two.
To my question
Smci appeared to be a profitable company supplying a huge company in a growth industry. I don't think that has changed? I heard in an interview late last year that the numbers of sales (provided by SMCI) to Nvidia were backed up by information released by Nvidia themselves.
#1 Is there anyway to find that information in disclosure documents from Nvidia?
#2 Wouldn't that information clear up many of the worries regarding the factuality of information coming from SMCI?
I'm not too concerned about the timing of the release of information if SMCI is really selling as much as it seems to the biggest player in the market.
Thanks as always for your terrific insight!

Q: Hi,

Do you see a pathway for SMCI to be re-listed again in NASDAQ? What are the impediments/enhancers for it to achieve this goal? What do you think is the probability of it suceeding? (In terms of percentage) And if they do succeed, when do you think it will happen? 2025? or 2026? To my untarined and non-professional eyes, SMCI mgmt seem to be doing the right things. But then that's what I thought before it tanked :)
How many Billions they have to pay to settle the law suits or make them go away? If they decide to issue more shares to deal with all these issues, the stock may go down further, no?

Q: Hi,

I have speculative positions in SOUN and SMCI. Both of them are raising capital and SMCI has been dropped from Nasdaq100 as well. I would like your opinion on this capital raise and the companies in general; independent of my view.

I think SOUN stock price is being pumped and it would be prudent to exit the position and wait for share dilution to happen before entering again.

As far as SMCI is concerned, I think that the company is trying to come clean and start afresh. Even then I am a little suspicious. I also think that the exit from Nasdaq100 had been priced in and should not contribute further to the slide. And that they are raising capital is indicative of a strong order book. It is a matter of establishing credibility and feel it would be rewarding to give them a chance..

How would you deal with these two? Buy or Sell? Since these are speculative positions it is not just a Hold into the year end rally (hopeful).

Regards

Rajiv

Q: Hi There, I am trying to stear my portfolio decisions going into 2025, and looking for some of your feedback. I am 28 with 55k in myTFSA ( all after home purchase, so longer time horizon), I have about 5K of the 55K to invest, and the other 50K in the stocks below with their respective weightings of the 55K. I am trying to decide if I should add any other specific stocks or top up weightings to 2% on BSX / BKNG / ISRG / TSM / CELH / SMCI and add to CRWD, DIS, GOOGl, another 1.0%.

Are there any other stocks you would recommend to diversify this portfolio some more. Do you have any concerns with any holdings or their weightings?

Please deduct however many questions you feel necessary, I don't often ask Q's.

NVDA - 15%
SHOP - 10.7%
MELI - 9.8%
TTD - 9.2%
PLTR - 9.0%
MSFT - 7.6%
AMNZ - 7.6%
META - 4.1%
GOOGL - 3%
DIS - 2.5%
AXP - 2.45%
CRWD - 2%
NBIS - 2%
SMCI - 1.75%
NU - 1.64%
CELH - 1.54%
BSX - 1.12%
BKNG - 1%
ISRG - 0.7%
TSM - 0.7%


Thanks,
Dan

Q: Hi,
I'm wondering if you can shed any light on why VRT's price has become more volatile lately - any geopolitical concerns, or maybe new competition? It has been a bit surprising lately.
Many thanks for all your great input!

Q: I have a few questions about the recent special committee report which found no “substantial concerns about the integrity of Super Micro’s senior management or audit committee”,

1) To what extent was the recent report actually “independent” and to what extent can it be relied upon by us as investors? I think the committee was appointed by the board so can the report be trusted? I

2). Can we assume that there’s no fraud? What do you make of the comment that there was no “substantial” concerns about management or the audit committee? It seems that there were issues but those were not “substantial” whatever that means.

Do we have to worry about fraud here or do we simply worry about whether there may a guidance issue? Thank you,

Jason

Q: Hi,
Is SMCI a buy today? How would you approach the outcome of an independent review? Does it mean the financial reports and projected growth are intact?
Regards.

Q: SMCI is starting to rebound. Thoughts on entering a position for a aggressive investor?

Q: Dear Peter et al:

I know you don't like to predict and set price targets. But with VRT/NVDA on a tear, surely one has to have a floor and a ceiling price target? I know they are your high conviction long term favorites.

I ask this question with a specific trade strategy on mind. Take a position with say 200 shares. Write a call, just one contract each. Even if one gets called away, I will have the other 100 shares to capture the price appreciation.

Any words of wisdom on this strategy? Price targets?

Thank you for your answer.

Q: Hi 5i
You mention that you lost confidence in smci. Does that mean it's in the penalty box forever or put another way, what would it take for you to consider ever investing in it again?
I'm interested in your thought process as a fund manager.
Is it just a matter of time passing with no cockroach sightings or would management have to change etc..
I no longer hold it but may reconsider one day.
Thanks

Q: Hello 5I. I’m at break even with Smci. Should I hold or move on and catch the next train up?
I presently hold NVDA,AXON,VRT. I’ve done very well with the other three, thanks to your us side suggestions. If I move, what would be your picks.
Thanks again for your great work
Maurice

Q: I'm trying to find reasons not to buy a little taste of this. With all of the oockroaches etc hiding here, what are the odds of a takeover? Would another company step in here and purchase and if so, what could a projected sale price look like? At what point does the risk/reward make sense if a buyout is unlikely?

My thought is that if the company/governance is terrible but the business is excellent there has to be a price that makes sense but admittedly I am just looking for a reason to do it!

Q: Who are competitors to SMCI, and which one would benefit most in long term from the tanking of SMCI so I can initiate a position today? Thank you.

Q: Is Peter and team still bullish on NVDA not withstanding Super Micro's issues?