Investment Q&A

Q: I was watching an interview with David Rosenberg and Ed Devland. They were stating that the Canadian interest rates are going to have to be cut several times due to economic conditions. Can you recommend investment strategies to benefit from this . For example bonds going up in value because of the inverse relationship of interest rates and bond values. What bond etf's ect. Can you give US recommendations also, as it sounds like the Us will be later than Canada.

Thanks

Q: Bloomberg article today summarized:

Forget the stock market or private credit. Fixed income will outstrip other asset classes after “a generational reset higher in bond yields,” according to Pacific Investment Management. “Active fixed income is positioned to perform well if there are no recessions over our secular horizon and to perform even better if there are,” Pimco’s Richard Clarida, Andrew Balls and Daniel Ivascyn wrote in an outlook released Tuesday. As prices climb and inflation recedes, they expect bonds will be even more attractive than cash.

Can you offer some guidance/thoughts on this? I’m a growth investor primarily in stocks, and not familiar with bonds.

Can we benefit from some torque? What would be your top ETF plays in this?

Q: Bond ETF's like XLB have performed poorly in the face of peak interest rates and pending Fed rate cuts. Could you offer some insight as to why there has been recent weak demand for US treasuries, whether you see that trend continuing in the near term and at what point bonds may become a rewarding investment?

Q: I hold XLB in my RRSP. What do you think of swapping the XLB for BEP.UN?

Can you address the answer in various interest rate directions please?

( Between BIP.UN in the RRSP and the BN and BAM outside, I already have 10% exposure to the group. Doing the trade would have me bumping 15%. )

Thank You

Q: Feels like the right time to step into long term bonds. Do you agree and what would be your maximum allocation in an income portfolio? Thanks as always.

Q: I have these ETF's in my portfolio, although they are a small percentage. I am wanting to do a clean up of most of my partial holdings in individual stocks and purchase more ETF's. I was going to add VIG as well. Could any of these ETF's be replaced with better ones or not bother with them, and what others do you suggest to compliment them for an income investor who wants to see a little growth as well in a well diverse portfolio? Thanks.

Q: If interest rates drop would short term bonds be better than longer term ,which ever is better do you have any suggestions on bonds .

Q: If interest rates are poised to come down, do you see an opportunity for some short to medium term gains with bonds? If so, would the sweet spot be with short, medium, or long term bonds? Are there any bond ETFs that you could suggest?

Q: Dear 5i team.
As I read through the recent Q's on the merits of owning laddered bond funds vs long bond funds (CLF/CBO vs XBB/XLB) couple of f/ups for you. Assuming rates have peaked, and downward is the consensus:
1) What is the upside for CLF vs XLB for example. How much of a move in bond prices would you estimate for each 50 BP move? (can you do same exercise assuming rates move higher?)
2) Since you like both XBB/XLB for long bond exposure, can both be owned, or should one be sufficient?

Many thanks for your help to understand the risk/reward here.

Q: These two have me scratching my head. I invested a few months back, believing that lower interest rates were likely ahead in 2024 and longer bonds would do well. After a decent start, they are drifting downwards which doesn't make much sense when no one seems to see higher rates headed our way. Is it de-risking going on, and other investments look better? Am I missing something here or is it just a case of having patience with the plan? Also, Happy New Year to all of you at 5i. al

Q: On Dec 28 you responded to a question from Cal about covered call bond funds, and made a recommendation as he requested. However, in your comments I got the impression that you felt now may not be the right time to buy this type of fund due to the potential for higher bond prices and lower yields over the coming months. Looking at the 2 noted above, and assuming rates do start to slide down a bit, what would you expect to happen to the ETF price and the distribution? Would you be a buyer today?
Thank-you

Q: my position in XLB:CA has almost recovered to break even. i am adjusting my behaviour in investing to try to avoid betting on conditions such as rising , falling, or staying near current for longer. I am getting the feeling from comments that long bonds are a play on rates dropping. If this is true, i would rather be positioned in bonds for more balanced risk/return regardless of rates. Any suggestions ?
Many thanks for your great service!

Q: I know you don't believe in timing the market but after the last few years i've ended up with a fair bit of cash on sidelines, yielding around 5%.
Post pivot i'm now thinking about when/how to deploy. Assuming interest rates have peaked and we start seeing cuts in 2024 i expect cash yields to start decreasing as well.
So if you wanted to "broadly" deploy your cash reserves throughout 2024 how would you proceed? Thinking some mix of SPY, RSP, EMV (much smaller allocation) as I have retained most of my high convinction Canadian stocks.
Dollar Cost Average monthly or quarterly
Wait for next broad pullback, we know it's coming just not sure when. Can still get a nice cash yield while waiting.

Q: Since long duration bonds have more sensitivity to interest rate movements and interest rates are expected to decline next year does it make more sense to invest in a long term bond ETF? And since I expect interest rates to fall further in Canada does it make more sense to go with a Canadian ETF? Which ones would you recommend?

Q: In your bond answers you favour XLB.
What are likely scenarios for this ETF if say rates only drop to high 4% and stay there?
What potential upside are we looking at?
What dividend rate should I expect?
What happens if the rates drop at much slower pace?

Q: Hello
I have equal amounts in CLO and CLF. Wondering if it might be a good idea to swap one of these for the longer term XLB Bond Fund to hopefully play the downturn in interest rates? If so which would you swap and why? Is there a safer trade with equal potential with less risk then XLB?
Thanks
Jeff

Q: It certainly feels as though we are seeing the beginning of a new bond bull after the roughest two years since the 1980s-early 1990s.
Please provide you opinion on the above, as well an any other bond etfs that you follow.
Can you please provide you opinion regarding a bull market..
Thanks in advance
Rick

Q: Hi 5i Team,

I keep hearing that purchasing bonds is currently a generational opportunity given how elevated interest rates currently are and we are likely at the peak point of the rate cycle. How would you recommend approaching having exposure to bonds in order to capitalize on the opportunity?

Are there any other sectors or areas of opportunity that are out there that you think one should get exposure to in preparation of interest rates eventually coming down?

Thanks as always,
Jon

Q: I’m 72 and retired, I would appreciate your view on investing in Canadian long term bond etfs, I plan on purchasing TLT in my U.S. account and was interested in purchasing a Canadian long term etf as well…..I appreciate your views, thank you!

Q: I am considering getting into bond ETF's, given that we are apparently hitting pause on rate hikes and will potentially begin to cut rates in 2024. I realize that you cannot predict timing but would you consider this a good time to be getting into bonds?

What is your view on bond ETF's FCGB and DXDB, or can you offer another bond ETF to consider?

Thank you
Tim