Investment Q&A

Q: How did you like the results. Still viewed as one of your favourites?

Q: I want to re-visit a question I asked previously (based on Eric Nuttall's appearance on BNN Bloomberg) and Lionel's input on it. I've reproduced those questions and answers below for reference.

To clarify, Eric was not bullish on natural gas, at least over the next year. What he was feverish on was heavy oil, and his top picks were the three companies above.

I had mentioned Tourmaline Oil which perhaps shifted the conversation toward natural gas, but I was really interested in your take on the heavy oil companies.

Do you share his enthusiasm about heavy oil? I'd appreciate if you could rank these companies. CVE seems the biggest but I sense he sees more potential in the other two which are smaller.



Q: Eric Nuttall was very bullish, almost feverish, on oil (represented by the companies above) while being down on natural gas. To what extent do you agree?

Asked by Kevin on February 27, 2023
5I RESEARCH ANSWER:
We like Eric and used to work right beside him (Peter answering). He is bright and gained lots of experience over the past 20 years. He showed a lot of guts in the oil crash when his fund dropped 70% in three months and fell to $20M in assets (he now manages more than $2B). The sector is very cheap, and vs past cycles corporate balance sheets are very strong. Certainly the lack of spending may results in higher prices over the next three years (depending on the economy). But...it will always be cyclical. The price of oil in fact is even down 14% from before the Ukraine war started. But we think some sector representation certainly makes sense. The TSX is currently at 17.4% energy. We might consider that a bit on the high side. In terms of natural gas, it can be very weather dependent, but we would be more bullish than Eric; the price has dropped so much this year, but it is also dependent on drilling, and the price drop is going to cause even less spending to be done on new gas wells.

Q: I am optomistic that Peter and Eric Nuttall are bullish on the gas sector, as in the 5i reply to Kevin's query (Feb 27). What are your views on XES? Technically, it looks like it has a huge runway to the upside ...Thanks....Lionel

5I RESEARCH ANSWER:
XES is the SPDR Oil and Gas Equipment & Services ETF. Certainly there is upside potential as oil and gas companies spend. However, there has been a trend in the industry towards dividends and buybacks, so spending this cycle may be less than in other periods. Still, the fund is up 38% in the past year, and its 35 holdings look solid. We would be OK owning this for sector exposure, with the understanding that it is always going to be cyclical.

Q: What if anything can be read into the recent disposition of TVE shares by ARC Energy fund?

Thanks,

John

Q: How would you rank these at todays price and future potential over the next 2-3years?

Q: how come TVE wouldn't go up in price , I own it and it looks like it should be doing great compared to some companies that are.

Q: I'm having difficultiy deciding whether to take a position in Whictecap or Tamarck. Which of these 2 companies has the best prospects for 2023?

Q: Good morning 5i team!

May I please get your thoughts on ERF. I've held it for a while and have done well. I'm concidering rotating out of this name and shifting to either WCP, HWX or TVE all of which have better dividends and could run harder if oil catches a bid (as many oil bulls are expecting). Do you prefer any of these name over the others....or, stay the course. Thoughts?

Thanks

Dave

Q: Hi Peter, Ryan and 5i team,
It’s that time of year to contribute to our grandson’s RESP (age 9). After rebalancing and adding new money we can add two stocks to the portfolio. To broaden the sectors , we are looking at utilities, healthcare, and real estate. Could you please suggest a name in each sector .
Thank you for your opinion.

Q: Looking for what top 3 oil & gas recommendations you would have. Growth and appreciation over the next 2-3 years.

Q: I know these companies vary a lot on the risk spectrum (CNQ likely being the safest and PXT the riskiest due to geopolitical risk), but if oil prices stay relatively high for the next couple years (let's say averaging at least $70), how would you rank the following stocks at current prices for potential total return: CNQ, TVE, IPCO, PXT?

Q: Can you comment on the long term prospects for this company.
it seems to be in a free fall. Might it be at the point to even buy more?

Q: I am selling one or all of TVE,AC,KXS for tax loss. All are down similar amount . Would you please list from first to last your preference for disposal.

Q: Peter, it is my understanding that all three of these companies now have very low debt. They also have a very low p.e. They also have a very long reserve life. Is it true that renewable energy is many years away from being a viable solution for energy for the world? The share price for renewables has certainly shown that. ie. RNW Algonquin.
Is this huge drop in these energy companies due to the no more piplelines and no case for LGN, the Trudeau effect. Are these three companies still overpriced?? What would be a good entry point?? Is not a 9.5% div on Peyto the same as a 12% GIC after tax is calculated?? I would like your opinion on these questions Thanks Ken

Q: Hi 5i,
Can you explain why investors don't like TVE - recently at least - and do you see any reason to think this negative sentiment might turn around any time soon so that it at least keeps pace with its peers?
Thanks,
Peter

Q: Hello Peter,

The stock has dropped close to 10% since the explosion and death of 2 persons at their facility 2 weeks ago. Do you think the liability from the accident has a material impact on their eps for the near future?
Regards
Rajiv

Q: I would like to crystalize some Gains in KXS and reduce my holdings to a small amount (just a place holder).
I would like to add to the others listed above in the order of your preference.
All stocks in my TFSA.
Thank you!
Albert

Q: If a 2% tax is imposed upon oil and gas co. share buybacks, I assume that free cash flow will be directed toward debt repayment and dividend increases, with low debt companies raising dividends the most. Which O&G companies would you recommend, ( if my assumption is correct )?

Q: Hi 5i,
I need to access some cash by selling some TFSA holdings and hope you can give me advice as to the best way to go about that.
I'm nicely up on WCP and TVE, and with dividends accounted for close to break even on DBM. CTS, CURA, QST and WELL are down a lot, and GXE is down some but not too bad.
Selling 1/4 of the WCP or 1/2 of the TVE or DBM would cover my cash requirement, whereas I'd have to offload pretty much all of any one of the others at their presently reduced values to get where i need to be.
If I didn't need the cash I wouldn't sell anything at present, in the expectation that WCP and TVE will continue to do well, that DBM will at least hold steady, probably rise relatively soon and keep paying dividends, and that the others will find their way out of the woods in due course. But unfortunately I don't have that luxury.
Given the above, could you advise what i might best hold on to, and what might be best to sell in fairly short order?
Thanks!
Peter

Q: JOY
FRU
ATH
BIR
PXT
TCW
WCP
TVE
ARX
CPG
VET
ERF
MEG
BTE

Which three of the above fourteen oil & gas stocks would you sell first to bring my sector allocation back to my normal weight? This is assuming 100 WTI oil in 2023. Could you also provide a brief reason for each of the three stocks that you would get rid of first. Thanks.

Q: Could I have your comments on the latest results of both TVE & CIA? Take two questions off since I've asked about two companies.
Thanks, Dave