Q: Hi 5i,
Just a comment. For anyone looking at historical returns to evaluate the future prospects for a balanced (equity + fixed income) portfolio, it is extremely important to consider that the next 30 years of fixed income returns are virtually guaranteed to be significantly different than the past 30 to 40 years. Bond yields (interest returns) were in a generally declining trend, originally from nosebleed levels, for about 35 years from approximately 1980, during which even government bond yields dropped from double digit peaks to the negligible rates available over the past couple of years. The portfolios of investors who held bonds of significant duration early in that period reaped high interest rate bond returns while they watched the paper value of their bonds increase with each downward tick in interest rates. The fixed income component was potentially a tremendous contributor to very good portfolio returns over much of that extended period of declining interest rates.
Looking out over the next 30 years, the prospect is vastly different. Bonds don’t have anything remotely approaching the same kind of return potential. Current interest rate returns are still very low as rates are recently just beginning to move off what may later be viewed as ‘the bottom.’ The prospect for people who hold bonds of any significant duration while rates rise is that their holdings become less valuable. Low interest instruments may need to be held to maturity in order to avoid a loss of principal. In the meantime, those low interest bond returns will be a drag on any better portfolio returns that may be generated by equity holdings. If you have 50% of your portfolio in bonds that pay 2%, and you hope for an 8% overall portfolio return, you have to generate a return of 14% from your equities. Maybe bond yields will return to levels where they are not so detrimental to significant portfolio returns over the next 5 to 10 years but maybe they won’t. If they do, then holding bonds while the rates are rising can be painful. If they don’t, then they may go through an extended period where the chief value in bonds is the secure return of capital at maturity but the return prospects until maturity are relatively dismal.
The fact that someone buying a 10-year Canada Bond in 1982 got a 16% annual rate of return on it is not an indication of what anyone putting together a bond portfolio or balanced portfolio today can expect it to realize. It is completely irrelevant.
To assess the return prospects of a balanced portfolio today, you need to consider the relevant details and prospects for today's bonds, not the irrelevant details and portfolio contributions of bonds that have long since expired.
(Please print only if you think doing so may be helpful.)
Just a comment. For anyone looking at historical returns to evaluate the future prospects for a balanced (equity + fixed income) portfolio, it is extremely important to consider that the next 30 years of fixed income returns are virtually guaranteed to be significantly different than the past 30 to 40 years. Bond yields (interest returns) were in a generally declining trend, originally from nosebleed levels, for about 35 years from approximately 1980, during which even government bond yields dropped from double digit peaks to the negligible rates available over the past couple of years. The portfolios of investors who held bonds of significant duration early in that period reaped high interest rate bond returns while they watched the paper value of their bonds increase with each downward tick in interest rates. The fixed income component was potentially a tremendous contributor to very good portfolio returns over much of that extended period of declining interest rates.
Looking out over the next 30 years, the prospect is vastly different. Bonds don’t have anything remotely approaching the same kind of return potential. Current interest rate returns are still very low as rates are recently just beginning to move off what may later be viewed as ‘the bottom.’ The prospect for people who hold bonds of any significant duration while rates rise is that their holdings become less valuable. Low interest instruments may need to be held to maturity in order to avoid a loss of principal. In the meantime, those low interest bond returns will be a drag on any better portfolio returns that may be generated by equity holdings. If you have 50% of your portfolio in bonds that pay 2%, and you hope for an 8% overall portfolio return, you have to generate a return of 14% from your equities. Maybe bond yields will return to levels where they are not so detrimental to significant portfolio returns over the next 5 to 10 years but maybe they won’t. If they do, then holding bonds while the rates are rising can be painful. If they don’t, then they may go through an extended period where the chief value in bonds is the secure return of capital at maturity but the return prospects until maturity are relatively dismal.
The fact that someone buying a 10-year Canada Bond in 1982 got a 16% annual rate of return on it is not an indication of what anyone putting together a bond portfolio or balanced portfolio today can expect it to realize. It is completely irrelevant.
To assess the return prospects of a balanced portfolio today, you need to consider the relevant details and prospects for today's bonds, not the irrelevant details and portfolio contributions of bonds that have long since expired.
(Please print only if you think doing so may be helpful.)
