Investment Q&A

Q: An analyst from Citi has warned that “debt service ratios for non-financial firms” in Canada are very high, and a crisis is possible within a year. Is it safe to assume that none of the companies you recommend would have any trouble servicing their debt (TSGI, SIS, PBH, COV, TOY, etc)? Do any prominent names come to mind which might be at risk? Thanks for your thoughts.

Q: Charge as many credits as you see fit...at least 4...got lots. Annually, I follow the O'Shaughnessy system and go through the tedious process of ranking over 90 stocks into deciles. I am screening for stocks that are good value, less volatile and have a good + growing dividend. For value, I use P/E, P/B, P/CF, P/S. For volatility, I use Beta. For dividends, this year I have added 5 year growth % into the process. The resultant summary number is the cumulative of the 7 metrics, with roughly 60% value, 15% volatility and 25% dividend weighting. I then marry this up with a technical screening, using charts with a 200 mda, looking for a rising vs rangebound vs declining chart.

Question 1 = your thoughts on my screening system? I thought of adding in other metrics, but I wanted to keep it relatively simple. Factors such as payout % and ROE can always be a looked at in the next phase. Should I drop any of the metrics if they are redundant?

Most of the stocks screened as expected. However, 3 stocks didn't screen well at all and I am trying to figure out why. It may be that my population of stocks is skewed to value stocks, so if any of the other 3 stocks had growth or REIT characteristics, then they might be seen as outliers.

Question 2 = CSH's fundamentals screened horribly = 10th decile. Could it be that REITs may screen out differently, due to their very nature?

Question 3 =Both PBH and WSP screened poorly = 8th decile. Could it be their fundamental metrics exhibit more growth characteristics?

Question 4 = Reading past 5iR questions on these 3 stocks leads me to believe you are still strongly in favor of all 3. Please confirm.

Thanks...Steve

Q: 5 Cos for an entire TFSA

Q: I have significant losses on above names in my TFSA (Loss, Allocation, My Avg Price):
TSGI -49.20% , 7.10% , $49.48
WCP -47.83% , 1.70%, $. 8.70
WEF - 30.85% , 2.3 % , $. 2.62
NFI. -30.30% , 2.8 % , $. 51.81
PBH. -28.23% , 5.0% , $11.46
Other names in TFSA well diversified based on 5i Balanced portfolio with losses under 10% and some with gains.
Would you recommend buy to average down or any other changes.

Thanks in advance for your valuable advice

Q: With the recent market correction, I have several stocks that are down quite significantly and others that stayed flat or went up a little. This involves that the weightings changed quite a bit for some stocks. I know 5i isn't a big fan of averaging down, but in such context what would be your advice? I have the followings (%loss, weight) :
SIS (-19%, 4%)
PHO(-41%, 1.7%)
KXS(-10%, 3.3%)
NFI(-32%, 2.6%)
PBH(-28%, 3.4%)
TOY(-23%, 2.5%)
MX(-22%, 3.1%)
I currently have 13% cash and would consider reducing it to 7-8%. My sectors are well diversified. Which of the above would be your favorites today for a position increase?

Thank you!

Q: Hi guys
I have held Saputo for a very long time and done very well on it and appreciate its relative stability. However it has not done much the last few years except gradually trend lower, plus it would appear the milk/cheese market is always affected by trade/tariff issues out of control of the company. I have to say when I listen to Lino Saputo on conference calls he is very impressive how he knows the most intricate details about what drives his operations. What do you think would be a catalyst for Saputo to move forward in the next few years. A 2nd question relates to Premium Brands and given its drop in price over the last while would it make sense to sell my Saputo and bus Premium Brands as a replacement. I always worry that with a loss of a big contract like Starbucks the stock price might just fall away and that has kept me out of it, but of course they have continued to do well.

Thanks

Stuart

Q: Hi 5i team,

I sold PBH for year end tax loss on Nov 21 and would like to repurchase after the 30 days rule. Do we start with the trade date or settlement date? Is it 30 calendar days or business days? So with Nov 21 being the trade date, when can I repurchase PBH? Thanks .

Q: Between the two of these companies which would you prefer to buy now and why? Also which company would have more upside in the next few months, keeping in mind that oil prices do not go up and natural gas prices remain high

Q: please provide 3 top equities for starting a position today. Ranked from 1 - 3 not considering any other factors.
Thanks.

Q: RRSP vs TFSA vs non-registered accounts. Sector balancing aside, what would be your top 3 picks for each type of account? Incredible site, thanks for all your work.

Q: I am considering purchasing above stocks. What is your current assessment of these companies?
Thank you!

Q: I would like to top up these positions and trim them back in the future (12-24months?)

Are there any names on the list I should avoid or expect a longer recovery for?

Always appreciate your wisdom.

Q: Premium Brands (PBH.TO) said Tuesday that the Toronto Stock Exchange has approved its proposed repurchase of up to 1.7 million common shares, representing 5% of public float, starting Nov. 22 until Nov. 21, 2019.

Daily purchases will be limited to 26,256 shares.

Q: Following up on a recent question regarding allocating the appropriate amount of monies to each stock, the amount depending on the size, safety, etc of that security. Would you agree with the current split (full, partial, small):

Full = AD (should be partial), AQN, BCE, BNS, FTS, RY, TRP.
Partial = CGX (could be full?), CSH, NFI, PGH (could be full?), TCL, WSP (could be full?).
Small = WCP.

Thanks...Steve

Q: Is there an update to forward 1 year p/e ratio on these companies? Thanks

Q: Sorry, yet another question on Premium Brands. In your response to Jim today you noted that 5I would consider the management of PBH to be good. In their 2019 Outlook they indicate they are expecting close to $10 per share of adjusted EBITA. Also they expect revenue of $3.7billion. Both seem impressive numbers, if they can be relied on, and the latter is especially so given the current market cap is appx. $2.4billion.

Analysts have reduced their earnings estimates for next year from $5.54 to $4.53 giving a forward PE of 16 which is below the 5 year low PE of 23.

Debt seems on the high side at 1.26 times equity and management have noted they are paying higher interest rates because of the current debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio. However interest coverage seems reasonable at 4.3 and if the EBITDA comes in as they expect there might be some interest rate relief.

In light of this what reasons would you advance for not investing at todays price?
Mike

Q: Hello Peter,

First off, great job on BNN yesterday! Your comments helped reinforce on focusing on the long term and not quarterly results. Just to recap your theme, I have listed the companies with let's say "quarterly miss" , however, with a market over reaction to the downside. Can you add or delete other companies that fit in this category?

Thank-you for being in our investment corner.
Angelo

Q: Hi Guys, my above holdings got wacked lately and was wondering if there is anything going on, from the above list should I sell anything besides WEED, are the institutions selling these companies because they think there is more to the downside? These are long term holdings are all up except for COV and KXS which I just bought before the tumble, not one of my best moves.

Thanks
Chicken Little

Q: Hi,

SHOP has held it's own very well wondering if it would be a good idea to reduce SHOP to small position from full position. And buy SIS, BNS, NFI or PBH..for safety and growth when the markets decide to rebound...Your thoughts and sage advice welcome.
Also I am surprised at SIS sharp drop for a small miss...Should I be taking advantage of this?

Thanks. Shyam

Q: SAP vs PBH.
Which company has the best:
- Management
- Balance sheet
- Dividend growth
- Potential for capital gains
- Current valuationPBH i
- Overall business
Do you have a gut feel which would do better during a recession?

Thanks.
Jim