Investment Q&A

Q: Do you have any suggestions with regard to selling your losers? For example, I own Avigilon (AVO) and currently have a loss of 41% and keep on holding it with the hope that some good news will be on the horizon and the stock will head up. Frankly, I wish I had sold it long ago. I know that some investors have a rule if a stock drops 7-10% from purchase price, it is sold. Do you have any general recommendations for selling losers? Thanks, Bill

Q: Avigilon,Auto Canada,Badger for the long term ie over 5 yrs
Avo,AcQ, Bad are now priced at less then the mid point of their 52 wk low & high.
What is the peg ratio on the above & is it ok to establish a small position , say 1/3 in each of them now with the plan to purchase another 1/3 provided you issue a favorable report on their 3rd Q results.
Thank you

Q: What are your views on Avigilon (AVO)? It hast dropped off quite a bit - is there a reason and would it be a buy, sell or hold?
With thanks,
Doris

Q: Hello Peter,
Thanks for the reply regarding BNS, CP, KEY & CSS, . Can I have your opinion on AVO, CNQ as well.
Thanks for the great service.
KS

Q: As I write this, AVO is up 4.75% today. With no announcements, one must check the charts and doing so, I see no reason to buy at this point. Prices are well below the downtrend line, is still below the 20 day MA (but is approaching it. Volumes are about even with the 100 day MA. Frankly, considering Avigilon's propensity for volatility, I will wait for it to muster significant volume to the upside before I'll consider a re-entry.

Q: Hello 5i team,
My RRIF portfolio is fairly diversified. I have room to buy a position in either AVO (Technology) or BAD (Infrastructure) even though they are in different sectors. My exposure to the tech sector is 13.6% of the portfolio and comprises CSU, ESL, CGI, MDA and OTC; that of Infra. is 6.5% and comprises BIP.UN, SJ and STN.
Your opinion is, as usual, most welcome
Thanks
Tony

Q: VII.US/AVO
Are VII and AVO in direct competition? As per a quote from VII's statement, "highly regarded brands within the security industry allows us to bring a compelling and completely proprietary video solution to our customers”, does one have better security solutions or do they each have specialized niches? I would appreciate your opinion and if possible a brief evaluation/comparison of VII. I'm also considering owning both for a combined full position. Reasonable? Thank you.

Q: I noticed your aug 12 bloomberg article on AVO posted. I am under water on AVO & wonder if you are bot into the presidents strategy of short term pain for long term gain or is he over optimistic & have it wrong. In other words, is this a good time to buy into a real growth story a year or 2 from now or is there any chance they will see competition by then? On a side note, I believe there is a huge demand for more survelience and an acceptance from the public.
You also posted a list of 90 charts, first one being the SSEC-I which has already passed the marker the auther suggests will mark a breakout. Can you elaborate on your feeling of whether his assumptions are correct & what sectors this would impact, IE; commodities-base metals, oil, etc??

Q: What would cause a 5.3% drop in AVO yesterday? Volume was average.

Q: I am seeing that AVO is picking up again since last 2 days, I was just wondering since it has started moving upward is it the right time for me to buy or are we expecting more volatility until it comes at a fair value?

Q: AVO.The bloomberg article painted an accurate,but damaging picture.Commenable that Ceo,Alex's primary focus is growth to $550m by end,2016 & maximizing its good product to keep abreast of competition.But acceptable that he is doing it at the expense of PROFIT & ramping up hugh & excessive expenses.M.Lowry,a co's spokesman stated that AVO has no current plans for more acquistion.This is damaging especially after $100m equity financing in last April(diluting shares) Many fund managers recommend AVO,including 2(PI Fin.corp & CIBC) who increased the target price a few days prior to release of results and subsequently reduced. On Aug 11,a sharp fund manager stated a lot of hedge funds who own the stock were disappointed & try to leave at once,This is now a "SHOW ME" story Appreciate good managers like our Peter Hodson & Pat Horan who advised us to stay the course,& Pat recommended it as a "STRONG BUY" In my humble opinion,if a hedge fund,who owns a seizable portion & decides to intervene,AVO will see glory days again very soon.Note that Ceo Alex only owns a small amount(3.2%).For example,CP increased substantially after intervention,& to a much lesser extent,BXE(a few days ago. Thanks

Q: re: AVO... the ongoing Saga

It has become the new/latest "Amaya type" 5i blogging saga. Panic abounds and the length of the discussion grows daily.

I have read all answers and like everyone else I am buried on this one, but for me to cut and run and take a loss based on panic would be retarded. The numbers continued to appear reasonable and future opportunities appear to be available especially if some of their cash can be spent on a quality acquisition.

My Concern??? How easy is Alexander Fernandes to work for? It may be my ignorance of the true situation, but it appears to me the turn over at this company is very high. Which begs the question if all of Mr. Hernandes' time is being spent replacing people, then who is minding the store regarding day to day business? And if in fact he is difficult to work for (which in some respects isn't a bad thing) what can we expect from the people he hires moving forward?

Personnel turnover is expensive. Is there any validity to my concern?

Thanks You for all you

Patiently Yours

Gord

Q: Hi Peter: Is this the time to pick up additional shares of AVO or do you think I would be trying to catch a "falling knife"? As well I also have a small position in DHX, and SYZ. What would you suggest?
John

Q: The article from Bloomberg reflects my sentiments quite succinctly. I had bought AVO at $30 and is currently 3% of my portfolio. I am torn between diametrically opposite courses of action.
- The stock has tremendous potential but very risky. If I double my position, the cost base comes down and the percentage risk diminishes but the risked amount increases.
- I could hold on to my current position and I think the downside risk is a lot lower from this point on.
- Or I could take my losses and justify that not doing so would be an opportunity cost of investing elsewhere with lower risk; in case the gain in stock price is not substantial.
I ask your advice as a voice of reason. I have itchy fingers and very often gamble and very often the end result proves the old adage that I was lucky in love.

Q: Is there a reason that comments are disabled on the Avigilon blog article? Of concern to me, an AVO owner now in my late sixties, is that Mr. Fernandes, who appears to be in his early forties is thinking very long term with this company if earnings are of secondary importance to product development even going out years. How long will I have to wait for payoff in my underwater investment?

Technically I see that if the stock breaks support at $17.50 next major support is $12.50 established 2012-13 on much lower volume. Perhaps it would be better to cut and run here then wait for a bottom to re-enter. Would you agree? Thanks, J.

Q: Hi 5i: I've held Avigilon for a while. At one point I was up 60% and am still up though I've lost at least half my paper gains. I still like its growth prospects, but it seems unless the growth is "per share", the market is not impressed. Do you think it's worth holding on to at this point? I'm not in a major hurry but I don't want to go back to my initial acquisition price either. Your wise counsel would be appreciated.

Q: Hello Peter & Co,
I bought AVO on Jan 29, 2014 for $32.85; it is now around $20.
Question 1: If I did not own it, would I buy it now? Probably not, given all the noise.
Question 2: do I buy more and thus reduce my average cost to $26? I think not; I'd rather take a position in DHX Media (on my watch list).
Decision: hang on to it for a while longer unless it drops further to $18-19.
What do you think of this rationale?
Thanks
Tony

Q: Hi,
Can you give a follow-up on the conference call on the quarterly result by AVO. In particular, any concerns an investor should have going forward?
Thanks.
Ed.

Q: Hi Peter, Avigilon has been taking quite the beating ever since 2014 began (bad timing for those who entered a position) and with their recent earnings release, stock has been taking a further beating. While I strongly believe in the future of this company, have a high appetite for risk and currently have a 2-3 year investment horizon on the stock, I am wondering if I will ever see a profit on this investment. Do you believe this company will ever return to their previous highs and beyond and perform as they have in 2012/2013 or has the fundamentals shifted out of favor for AVO? Thank you.

Q: Hi, LOY and AVO: which of these do you prefer for a small cap investment? What is the risk for each? Good time to buy? Thanks so much. Helen