Investment Q&A

Q: I bought WCP at the end of December for "bounce" factor at $4, and still hold. It has come up significantly this week. Is there some fundamental reason for this? In other words, does it have the potential to stay over $5 longer term? I'm wondering whether to continue to hold long term or sell and take the short-term gain, as was my original intention.

Q: I see you sold WCP in favour of SU. I am down substantially on both VET & WCP. If I am moving the remnants of WCP to SU should I do the same with VET?

Q: ..with Husky pulling the plug on MEG how would you rank these companies as possible targets, or are there any others you think are attractive. thanks.

Q: Good morning,

I am struggling with the recommendation to sell WCP at current levels in exchange for Suncor.

Consensus ratings for WCP: 18 buys/1 hold.
12M target price: $8.68, or ~ 86% return from current levels.

Consensus ratings for SU: 23 buys/6 holds.
12M target price: $53.65, or ~ 26% return from current levels.

Suncor is a great company – no doubt. And I get that the recommendation does tie in nicely with upgrading to a "higher grade" energy play. But just wondering that when energy does turn if makes sense to continue to have exposure to the lower cap, higher beta WCP. I just really hate to sell here.

Q: If oil sector re-bounce,which stocks have more upside.What is your outlook for crude oil in 2019? thank you.

Q: I just sold my final energy stock last week for tax-loss, VET, so I'm out of the sector right now and wonder if it's a good time to reenter. I sold these two stocks in the summer, and see they are way down from where I sold. Are they still considered good companies, and do you think there is some growth in the stocks in 2019? Are the dividends considered secure? Thanks!

Q: Hi, most of my portfolio is trying to hang in with such a volatile market, but these two companies are killing me.
I see vet is now over 9% dividend which I like, but also know nothing good comes from it.
Is it time to raise the white flag to fossil fuels and go totally renewable, or would I probably be selling at the low?
I have to hand it to the environmentalist and protesters they are doing a great job against the oil companies.
Could you give me two of your favourites for renewables.
Thanks

Q: Charge as many credits as you see fit...at least 4...got lots. Annually, I follow the O'Shaughnessy system and go through the tedious process of ranking over 90 stocks into deciles. I am screening for stocks that are good value, less volatile and have a good + growing dividend. For value, I use P/E, P/B, P/CF, P/S. For volatility, I use Beta. For dividends, this year I have added 5 year growth % into the process. The resultant summary number is the cumulative of the 7 metrics, with roughly 60% value, 15% volatility and 25% dividend weighting. I then marry this up with a technical screening, using charts with a 200 mda, looking for a rising vs rangebound vs declining chart.

Question 1 = your thoughts on my screening system? I thought of adding in other metrics, but I wanted to keep it relatively simple. Factors such as payout % and ROE can always be a looked at in the next phase. Should I drop any of the metrics if they are redundant?

Most of the stocks screened as expected. However, 3 stocks didn't screen well at all and I am trying to figure out why. It may be that my population of stocks is skewed to value stocks, so if any of the other 3 stocks had growth or REIT characteristics, then they might be seen as outliers.

Question 2 = CSH's fundamentals screened horribly = 10th decile. Could it be that REITs may screen out differently, due to their very nature?

Question 3 =Both PBH and WSP screened poorly = 8th decile. Could it be their fundamental metrics exhibit more growth characteristics?

Question 4 = Reading past 5iR questions on these 3 stocks leads me to believe you are still strongly in favor of all 3. Please confirm.

Thanks...Steve

Q: I have held sgy ,wcp and xeo for several years and am down substantaily. I recently added more sgy and wcp on the hope of benefiting from tax loss selling. Both wti and wcs prices are rising this past week but these oil stocks are continuing to go down. If oil prices continue to rise slowly where do you think these stocks will be in the new year. Andy

Q: Good morning,
I currently do not own the above listed equities from the BE Portfolio which I follow pretty closely. Are there any you would not recommend purchasing right now? Thanks for your counsel. I am watching sector allocations.
Ted

Q: I am planning to realize losses on the above companies to offset capital gains with a plan to repurchase after 30 days. In order to maintain sector exposure in the intervening period I would like identify proxies for each holding. My thinking is as follows:

TECK.B == XMA
BNS == TD
TFII == ZIN
NFI == ZIN
WEF == CFP
VET == XEG
WCP == XEG

Please review my suggested proxies and add / amend as needed. Alternatively, if you think I would simply be better off holding cash until repurchasing please say so. Thank-you very much for your help.

Q: one year forecast

Q: I have significant losses on above names in my TFSA (Loss, Allocation, My Avg Price):
TSGI -49.20% , 7.10% , $49.48
WCP -47.83% , 1.70%, $. 8.70
WEF - 30.85% , 2.3 % , $. 2.62
NFI. -30.30% , 2.8 % , $. 51.81
PBH. -28.23% , 5.0% , $11.46
Other names in TFSA well diversified based on 5i Balanced portfolio with losses under 10% and some with gains.
Would you recommend buy to average down or any other changes.

Thanks in advance for your valuable advice

Q: I'm looking to reduce exposure to the energy sector and harvest some tax losses. My holdings cover a range of energy companies with different strengths and weaknesses (gassy, oily, big cap, small cap) so equivalence is difficult to calculate. From the list of CVE, HSE, PGF, SGY, TOU and WCP in what order would you reduce these holdings?

As always, thanks for the excellent service.

Q: WR Jacques Q. Andrew McCreath today on BNN had what I assume to be credible reason for WCP budget delay. If you inputted what WCS oil is selling for presently ($15) no business plan in the Alberta field would look reasonable.

Q: Why would Whitecap delay there guidance for 2019? Is there a possibility that they are planning to cut the dividend? If so, what would that do to the stock price?

Q: Hi Guys,

I sold WCP for the tax loss in October. Since then it has declined from $8 to $5. Any suggestions as to when to buy back, or would you suggest any other replacement, say VET?

Still hanging on to Teck at a big decline. Was concerned that they would bring on a partner for their copper mine in Peru. Any point in waiting longer or will a deal not be of any impact?

Thanks,

KC

Q: Hi Guys,
I submitted this question last week so not sure if it didn't go through or just got lost in the shuffle. The question is as follows: I am concerned about the oil and gas industry going into a prolonged down pricing environment. Can you rank these companies in terms of balance sheet strength and their ability to withstand a prolonged downturn? Can you also speak on if any of these would be in significant financial trouble (e.g. - bankruptcy) over a prolonged downturn?
Thanks,
Dean

Q: I would like to top up these positions and trim them back in the future (12-24months?)

Are there any names on the list I should avoid or expect a longer recovery for?

Always appreciate your wisdom.

Q: Hello,
which crude oil benchmark does WCP & SGY products fall into?
Do you see any cash flow risk at both these companies due to recent oil downturn?
Thanks,