Investment Q&A

Q: A trading education question - today (Dec.5) WCP opened at $4.25, high of day was $4.36 and at 4pm closed at $4.29. Volume weighted average trade price for the day was $4.2918

On the TMX site more trades were listed at 4:10pm. Six trades printed, all done at $4.68
Selling brokers included brokerges with numbers 85,62,25,68 & 80. The TMX Member Firm Directory details those brokerages.

https://www.tsx.com/trading/accessing-our-markets/member-firm-directory

Question relates to the buying broker for all 6 of the 4:10pm EST trade prints - brokerage #100. Total volume printed for the 6 trades was 407,000 shares. Not mom or pop trading in their pajamas.

Who is brokerage #100 & what would be the probable reason for why the 6 shown trades were done at over a 9% premium to the day's volume weighted average trade price (ie. $4.68 vs $4.29)?

I'm assuming it's somehow related to institutional trading given individual trade volume sizes (250,000 on one print) but I would be interested to know a better answer. Ideas?

Thanks for insights and opinions.

Richard in PG

Q: I sold WCP for the tax loss with the intention of buying it back after 30 days. Now that the 30 days has passed, I am questioning if I should repurchase it or if I would be better off with something else. It was my only energy sector holding and I am looking to fill the void with a new full position. What would be your best choice(s) for immediate purchase with the following criteria:
-Canadian energy sector
-Pays a dividend (can be small or large)
-Relatively strong balance sheet
-Will be able to weather $50 /barrel oil indefinitely but should nonetheless see some big gains when/if the Canadian sector turns around

Q: I noticed when comparing both stocks (TDwaterhouse data base),
TOU : EPS =1.65, div/year = 0.48, P/E=7.6, P/CF =2.6
WCP : EPS =0.13, div/year= 0.34, P/E=32 , P/CF =3.2
If both have lots of cash flow, why WCP has much higher P/E than TOU ?, What is WCP doing with its cash ?, Is capex, paying debt, shares buy backs any of the reasons to explain their main difference in earnings? Can I assume that TOU has a better balance sheet and therefore is safer ? Thanks

Q: In a recent answer to a question on an oil company, you mentioned that it is hard to be optimistic on a company if you don't like the management team. So my question is, which of the management teams in the oil sector would you want to align yourself with, and why? Alternatively, which of the management teams would you not align yourself with? Please deduct as many credits as necessary to fully answer my question. Thank You.

Q: Hi 5iR Team, TD puts out a monthly consolidated report of its stock coverage universe. In the Sept. 30th report I looked at their Junior/Intermediate O&G stocks. I noticed that if I arbitrarily picked an upside % of 70% i.e. current price and TD's Target Price there were 13 stocks. The lowest was TOG at 70% upside and the highest NVA at 152%. In addition, some of the stocks like WCP and FRU are yielding 8%+. For me as an investor this is compelling data. Lastly, reading further into the report TD's O&G sector thinking as stated by their senior analyst is not Bullish. In other words TD does not appear to be exaggerating the facts, attempting to make some case for investors buying O&G stocks.........but the analysts in the field certainly feel incredibly positive on a number of Junior/Intermediate names.
How do I sort this out??
What would be 5iR's top Jr/Int. O&G picks?
Thanks team. Cheers, Chris

Q: Please comment on their result and general assessment  or the stock.Also could you compare with SGY,TOG and WCP .
Thanks
Yossi

Q: I have positions in these companies way way under my cost. Looking for a strategy to capture some tax loss without giving up completely in allocation in case of oil turnaround. Consolidation in less number of stocks that represents the best potencial is an option or selling all of them and buying two or three different companies is another option. Appreciate any suggestion. Thanks for your help.

Q: Hi folks, comments on Q results & guidance for Wcp/t. Would U rate it a Buy/Hold/Sell, thanks as always. JB, Piedmont,QC

Q: Hi 5i: I have WCP, TOG and VET in my TFSA and RIFF accounts and I am down at least 50% for each. Would you consider averaging down for each? I will most likely carry each company up to 5-7 years. When do you think would be a good time to buy?
Thanks, James

Q: The only energy producer in my portfolio is VET. After today's Q3 earnings release I am considering switching to WCP. Your thoughts on this move.
Thanks
Roy

Q: I'm underwater on these 4 holdings, what are your views on how these stocks will perform over the next 6-12 months? Thanks in advance.

Q: Was listening to bnn today and the analyst made me relook at my dividend paying oil and gas stocks. How would you rank the four of them? And if you think there is a better choice, which one? Not including the majors though.

Q: I currently hold PEGI, TRP, ENB, PPL and CU. (approximately 20% of my RRIF portfolio)
However I am thinking of adding WCP, TOU and/or TOG.
Could you please rate these in order of preference. Or am I too heavy in resources.

Q: Could you compare WCP and Surge Energy and preference

Q: I’ve owned WCP for about 4 years now and am down about 65%. It has become such a small position that I am inclined to either cut it loose or top it back up to a full position. My total energy holdings stand at about 5% so there is room to add a bit. What would you suggest?

Q: Hello, in a recent question by "sunday" regarding your top 5 o&g picks you listed VET, SU, HES, PXT, ARX. I notice the exclusion of WCP which you have been a proponent of for quite some time and have listed HES and ARX which have been much less mentioned by your team as top o&g picks. Has something changed with WCP that caused you to not consider it a top pick anymore? I personally think WCP has become even more attractive with mgmt showing its cautiousness and protecting of the downside risk.

Q: At $50ish WTI, if all I cared about was the DIV. sustainability and no bankruptcy, which of the above would you list as best.
thanks
Yossi

Q: Good Morning 5i,

So on this fine Friday long weekend morning, I'd like to pick the brains of people who've "been there and done that" much longer and more successfully than I, and have seen some things in the financial world first hand that I have not.

I want your opinion on oil and gas. Are we not watching one of these classic "blood in the streets" scenarios you always read about as investors and wish you'd had the fortitude to plug your nose and dive in? The shares of almost every publicly traded company in the space are being thrown away for nothing. The good ones, the bad ones, the ones making money, the ones losing money, good balance sheets, bad balance sheets - it's almost irrelevant. If they're in the space they're being slaughtered.

So if the thesis is:

a) it will take a lot longer to power the world with worm casings, pixie dust, and unicorn farts than some would have us believe (i.e. hydrocarbons are not going anywhere in the foreseeable future)

b) a surprising number of these companies have solid balance sheets

c) a surprising number of these companies are earning profits hand over fist, doom and gloom aside

If a, b, and c are indeed true, you'd have to believe a lot of these companies trading at historic lows will eventually make investors a lot of money. Like buying Florida real estate in 2009.

What am I missing? What holes can be shot in this thesis, looking at it objectively?

I take the point that there is no catalyst to change things or excite investors in this space (although I do get surprised from time to time that the fact that a company can throw off ridiculous amounts of profit and return it to shareholders via dividends and buybacks doesn't itself become a catalyst, but I digress...)

I also take the point that these scenarios can persist for a lot longer than people think they can before things change.

Single-company risk is always there, I understand that, but I reject the idea that all of these companies are headed for bankruptcy.

Aside from patience and the stomach to watch your investment get hammered in the short term - where exactly are the risks?? This seems like such a great buying opportunity that I feel I have to be missing something.

Thank you for whatever insight you can share, and happy long weekend to you and your families!

Ryan

Q: Hi,

I am thinking of swapping my VET position for a position in WCP, mainly from a dividend sustainability perspective and also a future growth potential perspective.

Does this sound like a constructive move or am I misguided or missing something? Are there any other energy opportunities that you would point out instead of WCP for income and growth potential?

Thanks,
Derek

Q: Eric Nutall at Ninepoint keeps on saying he is buying heavy into energy space companies that are trading around 2.5 EV to Cashflow. Just wondering what some of the better names he’d be buying into may be. Any idea or suggestions?