Investment Q&A

Q: Gentlemen, good morning.
On my Ca$ side RESP I have only 3 stocks,
SIS (-28%, 50% of RESP PF / 3.9% totPF)
TSGI (-31%, 25% of RESP PF / 2.16% TotPF) &
NFI (-32%, 25% of RESP PF / 1.3% totPF).
The Can side is about 20% of RESP PF.
I have 20% of Ca$ RESP PF cash to add.
For 5 years min holding, Your thought please
Thanks Regards

Q: Your thoughts on the Alexander Dennis acquisition? I sold NFI for a tax loss early this year. Is it time to step back in?

Q: Does today's acquisition make New Flyer itself a more attractive takeout candidate? Thanks.

Q: Do you see a switch from NFI to CAE being long term profitable at this time?

Q: Hi 5i,

My question is in regards to tax loss harvesting. I am down, in our non-registered accounts, anywhere from 10-30% on Magna, Methanex, NFI, Vermilion, and Great Canadian Gaming.

I like all of these companies and would like to have them in my portfolio as long term holds. My time horizon is years, if not decades. I don't mind the volatility of these stocks at all, nor do I mind being down (on paper) significantly at any point in time with them - I understand these are cyclical names. Dividends, and dividend growth, from most of them ease any short term frustration.

All of that said, would you recommend crystalizing a loss on any of the above? Do you see any catalyst for short term price jumps (earnings?) that may cause me to get caught buying back in at a higher price in 30 days? And if harvesting a loss is the way to go, would I be better off keeping the proceeds in cash to buy back in after waiting? Or park it in comparable securities? If so, any suggestions?

Dollar-wise, the amounts are significant enough that trading costs aren't really material. The only other variable I should mention is that I don't have any capital gains (realized) to use the losses against, so it would just go "in the bank" to be carried forward to the future.

Lots of parts to that question so deduct credits as necessary.

Thanks, enjoy the long weekend!

Q: I've owned a 1000 SHS since last Jan. and I am down 42% or so: missed last Q badly, increased dividend nicely, low pay-out ratio. Hold in my non-registered account - fairly small holding vs total portfolio. I was thinking of adding another 1000 SHS. In hind sight I should have sold in Dec. 2018 to record a tax loss and bought back later. I'd like to see less debt.; but, realize very capital intensive industry - ROE 18% ROI not that impressive though. Good idea for long-term arisen to add now?

Q: I own all of these in equal weighting (7% each). Down quite a bit on NFI. Just seeing if I should keep it and give it the long term (10 years) to provide a good return or sell because there is a better company to replace it with for a better long term performance at this point. Any other recommendations as I do have some cash side lined at this point (30%).

Q: I'm looking at adding these for a recession/defensive type of portfolio.
For a longer term holder, do see any reasons not to buy these ones?
Do you like any one of these more than others?
Thanks as always....

Q: NFI seems to have fallen below its 50 day moving average on Friday. Assuming that its cash flow can still maintain the current dividend level, and management does not cut that rate, would you consider NFI to be a decent "bottom fishing" candidate?

Your insight is much appreciated.

Q: Is it time to bail on NFI or are the worst of the operating issues behind them? I have owned it since 2015 and saw the shares rise from $17 to $60 a year ago, only to half the amount today.
The Q1 results are not encouraging. Operating cash flow is a deficit of $7 million, earnings were down 46% or 56% adjusted. Gross profit margins declined Q/Q by 240 bps to just 16%. There have been substantial investments in new products (with learning curve troubles), a new zero emission bus, facility upgrades, a new parts facility (with start up problems and cost overruns), IT harmonization project, oh and they lost the Setra distribution rights in the motor coach division.

Concerningly, on capital allocation, they have increased the dividend with lower earnings and have a substantial debt funded share buy back. Annual interest is now about $25 million. This looks like brave policy unless the business really is about to turn the corner and shares return towards their $60 level.

What do you think?

Q: I need to sell some of my consumer cyclicals for portfolio balancing
I hold BYD.N, DOO, CCL.B, MG, NFI, TOY, TSGI
In what order would you suggest I sell them in and why.
Is there one that is not on this list that I should be holding?
Thanks

Q: I've own these 3 stocks, in your opinion, do you see these stocks providing some good upside over the next 6-12 months.

Q: Hi team, I have these companies in my TSFA. Can you rank these stocks based on highest potential gains (catalysts) in the next 12-24 months? They are equal weight and I will need to liquidate 50% of them within the next year or so. I know short term predictions are difficult but best guestimates are appreciated

Q: Morning 5i,
I'm wondering what to do with my shares of BUS that are putting a lot of red on my statement, and so I also wonder if that company might be an attractive acquisition for NFI or any other acquirer out there? Seems like BUS could be gotten pretty cheap.
I look forward to hearing what you think. Thanks!
Peter

Q: What do you think the growth potential is for New Flyer going forward 1 year as it has dropped by almost 50% from May 2018. Would also appreciate your comments regarding West Fraser Timber as I have a small investment in the company.
Thank you.

Q: Hi Peter and 5i team,
We have 11% cash in our grandsons RESP (age 5) and we want to deploy the money. The listed stocks are currently in his account. What would be a good choice for a new holding or top up a current holding. Thank you for your great advice in the past.

Q: Hello, I’m interested in buying a 3 % position in nfi. I’m holding back because it was a $60 a share stock not that long ago. I keep thinking if I bought at $50 i would be upset ,because as a dividend stock that pays 4+% it should have some stability with that dividend, assuming nothing is wrong with the company. I have read on your question platform that you do not think anything is that wrong with nfi.
Question is is it a good time to buy with a decent time frame, or stay away, as it seems to be acting like a small cap oil company with no dividend?

Q: Hi Guys,

Should have provided a little more background on my earlier question about risk in the above Consumer Cyclical stocks.

1) I'm happy with sector weighting, and want to keep it at 15% ish. I want to hold these stock for 10+ years while they grow.

2) My view of risk was around which companies would be in trouble given company specific risk like bad takeover, too much debt...etc. I'm not concerned about market downturn as I've been through several and good companies will survive.

3) In order to keep my weighting I was looking for replacement ideas for the riskiest stocks.

Thanks,
Chris M

Q: Good morning 5i
Thank you for answering my question of April 16 about my wife's TFSA. Among ENGH, SIS and NFI, you suggested to sell NFI. What about TOY which is the only stock showing 9% unrealized loss in her account? Between TOY and NFI, which one should she sell or trim or do selling and trimming on both for a long-term investor? Thank you again! Jim

Q: Looking at NFI's current valuation and its cash flow generation, any thoughts on NFI as a possible acquisition target?