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Investment Q&A

Not investment advice or solicitation to buy/sell securities. Do your own due diligence and/or consult an advisor.

Q: As one of 5i’s early subscribers, I find it a useful thought experiment to give my answer to a question before clicking on the 5i answer. I have found over the years our answers converge and so I rarely send in questions and comments. However my sense is that DeepSeek is a significant change.

On one level it is a clear lesson in the reality that, as Keynes said many decades ago, it’s real resources that matter, not money.

The American approach to AI development was that if you don’t have a $1billion you're not in the game. The Chinese have shown that if you have the pool of talent, amazing things can be done with relatively little money. The prevailing narrative that the Chinese are just copy cats was also blown out of the water. DeepSeek not only upends every assumption underlying the American approach to AI, it shows that the Chinese can out Silicon Silicon Valley and that means that, unlike in the past, China’s most talented minds will want to work for Chinese companies not American ones.

How will the Americans respond? Having staked political capital on the $500 billion Stargate, Trump and his entourage of billionaires have no choice, they will double down. We are hearing the narrative already, they are now saying that $500 million invested in DeepSeek’s advancements will produce even more amazing advancements in AI.

At a moment in history, as America consumes itself, China has taken a leap forward. Not only have they bloodied Trump, they have shaken the world in ways Napoleon could never have foreseen.

There are actually lessons to be learned in how Canada might deal with Trump but the political bobble heads and corporate Canada have actually come to believe the myths of neo-liberalism they started purveying in the 80’s, and are now incapable of rising above their paralysing fear.

Every investor has to ask, what are the implications of DeepSeek for their investments? Doubling down by the Americans will keep the party going for a while but it seems reasonable to expect a reckoning. Where would 5i look for alternatives to AI investments? Please suggest 5 US and 5 Cdn stocks that have strong balance sheets and reasonable growth prospects (without stretched valuations) that would benefit from using much less expensive AI? Also, please suggest a couple of ETF’s for Europe and China that would benefit should those markets surprise to the upside?
Mike
Read Answer Asked by michael on February 04, 2025
Q: Hello Peter and 5 i teamTo a question a member asked after the Deep Seek 'revolution' re who would benefit with lower cost and more efficient AI, you answered that :'efficient AI could help lots of companies. Here are some that we think may benefit: SNOW, MDB, DDOG, PLTR, FRSH, NOW, NET, CRM.' Would you also include PATH in the same category?

Thank you for your always valuable insight,

Adel
Read Answer Asked by Adel on February 03, 2025
Q: I am underwater significantly (-20 %to 30%) on the above 5 companies. I have a well balanced portfolio so am looking to either sell the above and replace them or add to them. Can you please give me your thoughts on which ones you would ditch and which ones (if any) you would add to. If you have any suggestions as replacements for any that you consider should be sold I would appreciate it. Thanks for your ongoing great insights. Peter
Read Answer Asked by Peter on February 03, 2025
Q: Hi,
Currently holding 2.46% position in HPS.A. With its larger revenue exposure to Canada and Mexico and impact of potential tariffs, does it make sense to diversify/trim and move some funds into POWL or PWR and which would you choose between the two currently? Thanks!
Read Answer Asked by Keith on February 03, 2025
Q: I've seen these high yielding products before and just noticed that a few are now available on the TSX. I'm curious as to what your thoughts are on this type of product and how they work. I noticed the yields are pretty extreme and particularly on MSTY. I'm assuming this is maybe due to the high option premiums and volatility on the underlying MSTR?
Is there any rationale to a short term hold in this type of thing if you believe there's at least short term upside in the underlying?
(I considered buying MSTR last year but put it off. I think it maybe has a few months to a year of upside still if the Bitcoin cycle continues. Being able to buy in MSTY in $C is a plus and avoids exchange rate fees if buying and selling within a few months/year).

Thanks!
Read Answer Asked by Dustin on February 03, 2025
Q: I would like to establish a position in the cyber-security sector.

Do you think a basket (ETF) approach is better or a focus on individual companies?

If the latter, please recommend your top 3. Also, are there any small-to-mid cap options that you like here.

Thanks as always.
Read Answer Asked by Kevin on February 03, 2025
Q: Hi,

As is my custom, I reviewed Q&A using symbol search and read your answers going back to Oct 2024. You have consistently given your "nod" to MU.

Of course it has been slipping even though it is not really in the same AI realm as NVDA. In one of the answers you even preferred MU to AMD! (That surprised me I must say).

Anyway, I initiated a position sometime ago. Didn't average down!

The questions are simple: Is this a good time to add slowly? Up to 2-3%. What about the law suits it is facing? Value stock or value trap?!
(With these companies that seems to the dilemma one is facing, especially trying to pick some good companies at a discount.)
Read Answer Asked by Savalai on February 03, 2025
Q: There's lots of questions about the future of Nebius and it's datacentres but I couldn't find any that touched on their ownership of their robotaxi and deliverybot division, Avride. Given the valuations of PONY, AUR, MBLY etc, what percent of NBIS's market cap would you guesstimate is attributed to their self driving division?

Despite recent Deepseek developments, I feel like NBIS is undervalued relative to its' peers given their robotaxi launch later this year in Dallas and their existing deliverybot program. Am I being too opptimistic here?
Read Answer Asked by dan on February 03, 2025
Q: I'm curious to learn more about evaluating valuation metrics such as fwd P/E and P/S when analyzing a company and its expected growth rates. You often mention that a company is trading at X fwd PE which is cheap or that it is expensive. How do you know this and what exactly does this mean in the context of looking at its rev and earnings growth rates? You often say if the E or S is rising faster than the P, then yes, over time the valuation can come down quickly with the stock rising fast as well, just like how NVDA has done over the last few years. I've heard maintaining a +30-50% growth rate is very hard over a long period of time and not many companies do it and growth rates will slow down.


For example, lets quickly compare PLTR vs CRWD vs VRT over the next few years:

PLTR shows 173x PE and 54x PS.
Rev growth is 25% and 22% for 25/26
EPS growth is 26% and 21% for 25/26

CRWD shows 99x PE and 21x PS.
Rev growth is 28%,21%,21% for 25/26/27
EPS growth is 21%,26%,25% for 25/26/27

VRT shows 34x PE and 5x PS
Rev growth is 18% and 14% for 25/26
EPS growth is 32$ and 25% for 25/26

Looking at these numbers, PLTR is by far the most expensive valuation wise and WAY above any other software name in the universe. So at the current valuation of PLTR, what kind of rev and eps growth rate does it have to maintain in order to justify this valuation? What is the relationship between the fwd PE/PS vs the EPS/Rev growth rates and how do you analyze this? Any color you can add to this would be great, thank you!
Read Answer Asked by Keith on February 03, 2025