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Investment Q&A

Not investment advice or solicitation to buy/sell securities. Do your own due diligence and/or consult an advisor.

Q: Hello 5i Research team,
I am always suspicious when a company does not provide or comment its quarterly results in its press release. As I do not think there is some seasonality, I am comparing q4-17 vs q3-17 : quarterly revenue growth dropping from 58% to 27%; gross margin dropping from 54% to 36%; sales and marketing as a % of revenue increase from 14% to 22%; administration as a % of revenue increase from 19% to 30%; operating cash flow before changes in working capital was negative 0,2 M$ vs positive 1,5 M$ for the first 9-months.
Echelon forecasted 2,8 M$ in revenue, 0,6 M$ in EBITDA (very large miss). Could you comment on my analysis? Could you comment on management and board members quality and credibility? Is it a classic case of a growing company having some growing (pains) expenses before some more revenue growth or is this the first signs a management team that is bad at manage expenses? With a year-end of September, the stock has been under presssure since mid-October, it looks like some knew about weaker results, and traded. Would you agree that trading looks suspicious since mid-October? Is PTE still worthy of being included in your growth portfolio or the small cap basket allocation of your clients? Immediate sell order or they invested for future growth?
Thank you for your collaboration, Eric
Read Answer Asked by Eric on January 18, 2018
Q: Just to note that there was also a ratings upgrade on CSU per Globe Investor on Tuesday:
Scotia Capital analyst Paul Steep upgraded Constellation Software Inc. (CSU-T) to "sector outperform" from "sector perform." Mr. Steep increased his target to $850 from $740. The average target is currently $750.
Read Answer Asked by Christopher on January 18, 2018
Q: BNS is the worst performer of the big 5 plus NA.It ranks #5 on 1yr return @ 6.1%,last on 3mo.@ 2% & 1mo @ 1.5%(as @ Jan 11/18 per TR).Recently a $2.9b acquistion of BBVA's Chile franchise.It is a fact that the above 6 banks takes turn to lead.So it is time to buy some BNS.Thanks for u usualgreat services & views.
Read Answer Asked by Peter on January 18, 2018
Q: Just a comment on reason for GS share price down today.
GS had a news release yesterday. Net Outflows accelerated in Q2/F18 to their highest level in over five years, thus validating our concerns surrounding the recent departure of key portfolio manager Ms. Jeannine LiChong (responsible for managing ~22% of GS' AUM at Q1/F18) which was announced early in the quarter (Oct. 10th).
Publish as you wish.
Thanks
Victor
Read Answer Asked by Victor on January 17, 2018
Q: Hi Peter and Ryan,
Would you consider Chesswood group a long term hold as the stock hardly moves and if it does, it is to the downside. It does have a nice dividend but given its performance, it is not a good enough reason to keep it. Your thoughts please. Also, i am thinking of increasing my weight to 5 percent for Savaria or Constellation software. I am leaning towards Savaria (growing sector, decent dividend, good momentum), but your thoughts please. Thanks very much.
Read Answer Asked by umedali on January 17, 2018
Q: NWC has dropped more than 10% in the last 6 weeks at quite high volumes relative to previous volumes. Do you have any ideas as to why, given that there has been no news recently concerning this company? Is it sensitivity to rising interest rates? My intent is to buy a half position short term and a full position longer term, but I'm reluctant to buy with what appears to be a "falling knife" situation. How would you recommend one proceed, given my trading costs are low? Wait for the price to stabilize or a partial buy?
Thanks for any suggestions which you are able to make.
Read Answer Asked by John on January 17, 2018
Q: Constellation buys Acceo for C$250MM which might represent around $30-40MM of EBITDA. Whereas today CSU's market cap goes up $1.1B on a generally soft day. I'm pleased as CSU is one of my larger positions, however, is this market reaction seem appropriate to you or is something else going on? Or am I just over-analysing things? Thanks!
Read Answer Asked by Darcy on January 17, 2018
Q: My father recently sold his share in his company. He knows I manage my investments myself (with your help of course thank you!) and asked me if I wanted to manage part of the resulting cash. It represents 400K$ that he doesn't need for his retirement income. I was thinking of using the Balanced Equity portfolio. I am about start initiating positions. Do you think it's better to buy over several months to spread the timing risk or just buy all at once? At the moment what would be your top 5 stocks based on growth and overall company quality?
Read Answer Asked by Julien on January 17, 2018
Q: Seems like a barrage of questions on Cineplex, in a week, but will ask, anyway. What is its current/ forward PE and is the present valuation justified (even after the steep decline) ? Do you expect Cineplex to continue to generate strong cash flow to pay down its very high debt load ( $600 mln ? ) and support 4.5 - 5% dividend ? How are the results of Cineplex capital investments in new initiatives like Rec rooms and VIP Cinemas ? Cineplex was removed/sold from 5iPortfolios, last year, in what looks like a smart move. But added back to Income portfolio, after some time, at a much lower price ($36.50, I think). With the recent drop in price, do you still have conviction that it's a good income stock to own and would you add ? Also, any change to A- Rating, with all recent developments and outlook ? Thanks
Read Answer Asked by rajeev on January 16, 2018
Q: Constellation Software announced this morning of a nice acquisition of Acceo Solutions for a price of $250 mln.
Q1: Seems like a good size acquisition, after some time. With annual proforma revenue of $116 mln, how significant is this transaction ?
Q2 : What is your understanding of the proposed financing ?
" Constellation expects to finance the Acceo acquisition on a stand-alone basis. This is a continuation of Constellation’s use of leveraged capital structures to compete more effectively for larger vertical market software businesses. "
Thanks
Read Answer Asked by rajeev on January 16, 2018