Investment Q&A

Q: I had let PHO shares rise substantially, trimmed close to the high which made me feel smart, then watched them go all the way down to current levels, which makes me question how smart I am. In hindsight it was no secret of a slow down in the sector spending, even in a good market likely the shares would have dropped substantially. Regarding spending cycles, historically is there any pattern time wise?

Q: I would like to top up these positions and trim them back in the future (12-24months?)

Are there any names on the list I should avoid or expect a longer recovery for?

Always appreciate your wisdom.

Q: Hi 5i
I thought I understood the DRIP or cash distribution concept but I've just received a cash distribution equaling 25% of the expected amount. On Oct 10th, Crius announced 4th Qtr distribution amounts of 0.0697. Then on the 24th announce the initiation of the DRIP.
As I am not eligible for the DRIP (currently resident outside of Canada), I expected 0.0697 per unit but have received 0.017425 (25%). This is a surprise to me - I'll need to discuss this with the broker but just wanted to clarify that there wasn't a cut or some other reason triggering additional foreign withholding tax (or ???)
Is this cash distribution amount an issue with my expectation ? Is this something you could clarify for me ?

Thanks
Mike

Q: Tsgi has been up nicely for a couple of days now with no reason, Is it time to buy full position of tsgi? Thanks always

Q: I ve been looking for a way to invest in the rise in popularity of car shares like zip car or car2go.

I haven’t found any pure plays but was thinking BYD may see a benefit from this trend. I feel like these vehicles must see lots of bumps and dings during their life in the city and users caring less about them than their personal vehicle. I would assume car share companies would prefer to work with larger auto body companies like Boyd for these repairs.

I’m curious to hear your thoughts on this and if you have any other ideas on how to invest in this trend.

Thanks!

Q: Good morning 5i team
I am considering selling NFI in my Investment a/c to trigger a 2018 tax loss, and plan to buy it back ~ 30 days later in line with CRA rules. Does this seem like a reasonable risk to take in the current market? i.e. is the expectation reasonable that I "may" be able to buy it back at roughly the same level as now?
Thank you for your view on this.
Edward

Q: Hi Peter amd staff
Today’s worry to me is PEO- what’s up? Even on days when market has a brief rally this thing is going down ?
Dennis

Q: Thank you again for this excellent service. I have a question about Savaria. In their most recent quarterly results, for the 9 months ended September 2018, stock-based compensation is $899K on $12.9M income. If I have done my calculation correctly, the stock-based compensation is about 7% of expenses. I do not know how to find the base salaries for the management (which would presumably further increase the management cost for the firm).
Is this not a lot excessive? Should I be concerned about the "cost" of management and how this cost could dilute shares or profits?
Thank-you

Q: I have owned shares of GSY for a number of years. Despite what I thought were very positive quarterly results and a strong outlook, GSY shares have taken a steep drop in the last few weeks. I noticed that insiders have made 35 buys (and no sells) totalling several million dollars in the last two weeks. I would think this is very significant news especially given that the President said on the conference call said that he did not feel that the company had credit quality issues (which seems to be a concern flagged by analysts). In previous conference calls, I have always found the President to be very transparent. Am I missing something here? If management uses their own money to buy millions of dollars of the stock, is this a strong signal that the stock is undervalued?
If you agree, is there any site you can go to which identifies the recent buying by management of the company stock, and presents the information in a table format?
Also, the Globe and Mail often does an article highlighting insider buys. I have not seen the GSY purchases identified, yet, they highlight much lesser insider buys. Any idea why? Is the data on the 5i website more current than other sources?

Thank you again for this wonderful service!

Q: Just wondering what your rational is for holding GS in your income portfolio. After reading your comments yesterday ?? KWH is behaving at bit better for now.
thanks !

Q: Tsgi is up 7% today, is there any good news? Thanks

Q: Hi folks, thanks very much for the Screener-Tax loss selling list of companies. I didn't see Photon Control on it. The stock certainly had more than 15% loss in 2018, by not on the list, does that mean Photon has minimal % projected revenue growth in 2019. I like the company and would you suggest a good entry point at $1 level. Thanks as always, jb

Q: Hello there,
I don't want to beat a dead horse here but doesn't GS look pretty tempting here as it drifts toward $10/share.? It hasn't been this low ( other than the last few weeks) since January 2009 during the worst days of the financial crisis . Certainly the world is in a better place now than it was back then? Also approaching a 10% yield which is either highly enticing or highly dangerous?? I haven't figured out which yet? As a very profitable cheap company with a large cash position is this a buy here? I see no insider buying activity at all in the last few months though, what don't they like here? Any thoughts here would be appreciated.
Thank-you

Q: You were asked a question regarding Savaria's forward PE multiple. Your response was 28 which is the same as the trailing PE multiple. How did you come up with that number? If a 28 multiple is true this stock is trading at a multiple that makes it very vulnerable to further declines despite what has happened in the last few weeks. I would like to know what your expected earnings per share are in each of the next two years please. Also could you identify anything on the horizon based on your analysis or management expectations that could lower or increase this estimate. And how do your numbers compare to management forecasts?

Q: Hi 5i,

Looking at pulling the trigger on a handful of Canadian stocks that've gotten beaten up lately to round out the Canadian portion of my portfolio.

I love a number of your recommendations. The one I seem to be struggling with the most is Savaria. P/E seems so high, its like it trades as a growth tech stock. In another question you indicated its forward P/E is 28.5 even with the recent correction.

So I guess my question is whether the confidence is still high for this pick? In a world where other Industrials like Magna and Linamar trade at such low multiples, does SIS really deserve the premium?

Thanks!

Ryan

Q: This stock baffles me. It's down almost 50% in the past 2 months. Its drop is unrelenting. I notice when subscribers ask which stocks you'd suggest 'now' its rarely if ever listed in your response.

Is this one of those that will have to be kept in a portfolio for 5 years just to break even?

What is your outlook here?

Sheldon

Q: Hi Peter and Staff
Any reason to worry here - drop off from it’s peak has been profound and continuous?
Thanks for all you do
Dennis

Q: Is there an update to forward 1 year p/e ratio on these companies? Thanks

Q: Sorry, yet another question on Premium Brands. In your response to Jim today you noted that 5I would consider the management of PBH to be good. In their 2019 Outlook they indicate they are expecting close to $10 per share of adjusted EBITA. Also they expect revenue of $3.7billion. Both seem impressive numbers, if they can be relied on, and the latter is especially so given the current market cap is appx. $2.4billion.

Analysts have reduced their earnings estimates for next year from $5.54 to $4.53 giving a forward PE of 16 which is below the 5 year low PE of 23.

Debt seems on the high side at 1.26 times equity and management have noted they are paying higher interest rates because of the current debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio. However interest coverage seems reasonable at 4.3 and if the EBITDA comes in as they expect there might be some interest rate relief.

In light of this what reasons would you advance for not investing at todays price?
Mike

Q: Hi 5I - I need some materials exposure and was looking at MX and CCL. Which one would you prefer for a 4-5% weighting or should I add both at say 3% each? Thanks, Neil