Investment Q&A

Q: Good morning 5i team
I am considering selling NFI in my Investment a/c to trigger a 2018 tax loss, and plan to buy it back ~ 30 days later in line with CRA rules. Does this seem like a reasonable risk to take in the current market? i.e. is the expectation reasonable that I "may" be able to buy it back at roughly the same level as now?
Thank you for your view on this.
Edward

Q: Hi Peter amd staff
Today’s worry to me is PEO- what’s up? Even on days when market has a brief rally this thing is going down ?
Dennis

Q: Thank you again for this excellent service. I have a question about Savaria. In their most recent quarterly results, for the 9 months ended September 2018, stock-based compensation is $899K on $12.9M income. If I have done my calculation correctly, the stock-based compensation is about 7% of expenses. I do not know how to find the base salaries for the management (which would presumably further increase the management cost for the firm).
Is this not a lot excessive? Should I be concerned about the "cost" of management and how this cost could dilute shares or profits?
Thank-you

Q: I have owned shares of GSY for a number of years. Despite what I thought were very positive quarterly results and a strong outlook, GSY shares have taken a steep drop in the last few weeks. I noticed that insiders have made 35 buys (and no sells) totalling several million dollars in the last two weeks. I would think this is very significant news especially given that the President said on the conference call said that he did not feel that the company had credit quality issues (which seems to be a concern flagged by analysts). In previous conference calls, I have always found the President to be very transparent. Am I missing something here? If management uses their own money to buy millions of dollars of the stock, is this a strong signal that the stock is undervalued?
If you agree, is there any site you can go to which identifies the recent buying by management of the company stock, and presents the information in a table format?
Also, the Globe and Mail often does an article highlighting insider buys. I have not seen the GSY purchases identified, yet, they highlight much lesser insider buys. Any idea why? Is the data on the 5i website more current than other sources?

Thank you again for this wonderful service!

Q: Just wondering what your rational is for holding GS in your income portfolio. After reading your comments yesterday ?? KWH is behaving at bit better for now.
thanks !

Q: Tsgi is up 7% today, is there any good news? Thanks

Q: Hi folks, thanks very much for the Screener-Tax loss selling list of companies. I didn't see Photon Control on it. The stock certainly had more than 15% loss in 2018, by not on the list, does that mean Photon has minimal % projected revenue growth in 2019. I like the company and would you suggest a good entry point at $1 level. Thanks as always, jb

Q: Hello there,
I don't want to beat a dead horse here but doesn't GS look pretty tempting here as it drifts toward $10/share.? It hasn't been this low ( other than the last few weeks) since January 2009 during the worst days of the financial crisis . Certainly the world is in a better place now than it was back then? Also approaching a 10% yield which is either highly enticing or highly dangerous?? I haven't figured out which yet? As a very profitable cheap company with a large cash position is this a buy here? I see no insider buying activity at all in the last few months though, what don't they like here? Any thoughts here would be appreciated.
Thank-you

Q: You were asked a question regarding Savaria's forward PE multiple. Your response was 28 which is the same as the trailing PE multiple. How did you come up with that number? If a 28 multiple is true this stock is trading at a multiple that makes it very vulnerable to further declines despite what has happened in the last few weeks. I would like to know what your expected earnings per share are in each of the next two years please. Also could you identify anything on the horizon based on your analysis or management expectations that could lower or increase this estimate. And how do your numbers compare to management forecasts?

Q: Hi 5i,

Looking at pulling the trigger on a handful of Canadian stocks that've gotten beaten up lately to round out the Canadian portion of my portfolio.

I love a number of your recommendations. The one I seem to be struggling with the most is Savaria. P/E seems so high, its like it trades as a growth tech stock. In another question you indicated its forward P/E is 28.5 even with the recent correction.

So I guess my question is whether the confidence is still high for this pick? In a world where other Industrials like Magna and Linamar trade at such low multiples, does SIS really deserve the premium?

Thanks!

Ryan

Q: This stock baffles me. It's down almost 50% in the past 2 months. Its drop is unrelenting. I notice when subscribers ask which stocks you'd suggest 'now' its rarely if ever listed in your response.

Is this one of those that will have to be kept in a portfolio for 5 years just to break even?

What is your outlook here?

Sheldon

Q: Hi Peter and Staff
Any reason to worry here - drop off from it’s peak has been profound and continuous?
Thanks for all you do
Dennis

Q: Is there an update to forward 1 year p/e ratio on these companies? Thanks

Q: Sorry, yet another question on Premium Brands. In your response to Jim today you noted that 5I would consider the management of PBH to be good. In their 2019 Outlook they indicate they are expecting close to $10 per share of adjusted EBITA. Also they expect revenue of $3.7billion. Both seem impressive numbers, if they can be relied on, and the latter is especially so given the current market cap is appx. $2.4billion.

Analysts have reduced their earnings estimates for next year from $5.54 to $4.53 giving a forward PE of 16 which is below the 5 year low PE of 23.

Debt seems on the high side at 1.26 times equity and management have noted they are paying higher interest rates because of the current debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio. However interest coverage seems reasonable at 4.3 and if the EBITDA comes in as they expect there might be some interest rate relief.

In light of this what reasons would you advance for not investing at todays price?
Mike

Q: Hi 5I - I need some materials exposure and was looking at MX and CCL. Which one would you prefer for a 4-5% weighting or should I add both at say 3% each? Thanks, Neil

Q: Peter,thanks for positive view on TFII in reply to my Q on BNN. As per G&M today,Industrial Alliance upgraded it to a Strong Buy with a $60 target price,Also,CM upgraded BB to outperform,US$14 tp & downgraded PBH to neutal, $82 tp,average tp $98.70

Q: Greetings,
Falling sword or a possible future potential ?
At what price range is the running actual business worth more than share price?
At what point would you say it has become worth a "punt"?
Cheers

Q: How would you rank the above on a risk-reward basis over the next five years?

Q: Does the reduced outlook that NVDA gave yesterday affect your thoughts on Photon PHO at all? Does the guidance from both companies "jive" as to the general outlook? Or is Photon so small that it could grow rapidly even with the reduced macro outlook? I'm trying to figure out how agressive to be with Photon since I do like the changes the company has made in the last couple of years.

Q: I know photon is a cyclical and will come and go with the semi sector, but at an EV of 70million making almost 2 million in interest alone, the company would trade at 50x earnings without even their core business. would you still expect them to remain profitable, even with a very weak sector?