Investment Q&A

Q: Some stocks like GSY OR RPI.UN seem to be decent performers but trade very light.Could you expand on that.

Q: Circling back on Leon's Furniture as a stable dividend paying stock with hidden potential...


Furniture business is a tough one but Leon's is likely the best operator:
- there is no shortage of tough competition in this fragmented industry: Ikea, Costco, Wallmart, Sleep Country, Superstores and partially Amazon on-line & US shopping (although only subset of their inventory like electronics as people won't buy entire dining set on-line or load in their trunk across the US border).

- on the positive, landscape is also improving: bought their biggest / most direct competitor The Brick in 2013, Target is out of Canada, Future Shop closed and Sears Home is almost bankrupt.


Checking the financials, I was surprised to find Leon's actually growing despite tough Canadian economy: 2015 SSS: +1.2% and 2106 SSS: +4.1% - but based on above, to build a conservative case, I assume no sales growth going forward.


What struck my eye in the latest company presentation on their website is the likely financial improvement to come from internal synergies left from The Brick acquisition. Two slides caught my attention:

- "1% SG&A reduction = $20M savings": classical Leon's ran at ~32% while post-Brick, it shot up to 37.5%. In 2016, it finally started coming down to 36.5% with IT systems integration late 2015. Assuming it can continue synergies and get 1% down yearly over the next 4 years, it would add $0.24 to EPS yearly ($20M/83M shares).

- "$50M per year for debt repayment": From MD&A, current debt is $240M after $50M was indeed repaid in 2016. interest at ~3% so yearly interest expense savings of $0.03 yearly ($240M/$50M = 4.8 years; $13.3M interest / 4.8 years = $2.77M and $2.77/83M shares = $0.03).

- 2016 EPS was $1.05. Even with no growth, SG&A and Interest reduction could add $0.27 in 2017 (0.24+0.03) - with same savings target over next 4 years bringing to 2020: SG&A to 32.5% (pre-Brick acquisition) and almost all debt paid, with EPS up to $2.13. Even if hit only part of these targets, there is a lot of potential internal clean-up to improve financials.


A couple of other supporting item to thesis:
- Very aligned Management as Leon family owns 67% of the stock;
- Own most of their real estate, some rumors of possible REIT spin-off last year to unlock value;
- 20% dividend increase last quarter after a few years flat;
- Insider buying (Mark Leon bought 52K shares on March 8 for ~$900K)


Now back at ~$17, valuation seems modest compared to its 10-year average. LNF seems a good value stock - flying under the radar. Is above reasonable / realistic thesis? Thanks for your comments!

Q: Since they are about the same price I am thinking about selling my FNV shares and buying an equal amount of SHOP shares. I am looking for more growth in the long term. Not worrying about sector allocation do you think this would be a wise move.

Q: Hi 5i, As one who remembers double digit interest rates, I've been wondering if and when the worm will turn again. It sounds like expectations are becoming pretty entrenched for higher rates in the US, and if that turns out to be true would expect Canada to follow with a year or two lag. Is there a typical pattern or approach that suggests which sectors and investment types benefit in a rising rate environment?

Thx for your excellent service!

Q: As a pure growth play could you please rank the following companies - NFI,CCL, ZCL.

Q: I noticed this stock is not part of the list of stocks in the summary. I hear a lot good things about this company and I'm considering it as part of my portfolio even at 114$/share. Would you consider this stock as good long term investment.

Q: Hi 5i, I noticed sometimes the gold stocks went down when gold price is up , same as energy, just my curiosity want to know why? What's the reason behind that? Thank you.

Q: Bond Proxies: Some investors do not want to own bonds, but prefer to own stocks that are considered "bond proxies"

Can you identify stocks that have these characteristics.

Q: Hi what type of companies would be looking at CBL and if they do go private is it a shorter process than if it was bought out by another publicly traded company (less approvals needed or the same ?)
Thanks,
David

Q: Hi,

I recently sold cineplex for a nice gain in a taxable account, and i am holding
Sylogist with a loss almost equal to my gain on cineplex.
I am thinking I should sell my Sylogist to offset part
of my capital gain on Cineplex with a view to buying back
Sylogist (or not) after 30 days. Is there anything wrong with this plan ? If Sylogist is till not performing after 30 days would Vermillion (VET) make a suitable replacement. My only other energy holding is PKI (sorry the name escapes me right now)

Thank you gor considering my question and your advice.

Thank you

Q: Can you please help me prioritize these stocks I'm considering for my income account. I understand that some are higher risk. Thanks.

Q: I am a 21 year old investor with a long investment horizon. In my TFSA, both CPH and MRE have stagnated and I am thinking of selling these and moving on. Would you endorse this move and if so, could you recommend your top 2 names (any sector) to replace them?

Thank You!

Q: In two responses today to questions about SYZ, you said 'we do think it is worth keeping an eye on SYZ at these levels'. What should one be looking for and for how long? In your opinion, is it a good buy now at this level?

Q: Hi 5i - Im looking at selling a small position in BOS (down 20%) and investing the funds in a technology stock for growth (looking at SHOP or ITC) - would you make the switch? Or is there another tech stock you would suggest (already have KXS)? Thanks, Neil

Q: Can you please give me your thoughts on HBC's earnings and the subsequent bounce? Thank-you.

Q: If you could only buy one, which would it be, PBH or QSR? This would be for 3-5 yr hold.
Thanks for all your advice.

Q: Finally got shares back from London, now with the downturn should I sell or hang on for comeback. Its a small speculate position.

Q: Hi Peter, Some spring cleaning and making room for new purchases.
I am still having some legacy stocks from BE PORTFOLIO - AYA, CGX, HCG.
Are they sill keep or let them go. The intent would be to replace with AIF CLS, GUD and add on to CXI. Is this sounds good to you. THANKS AS ALWAYS.

Q: I want to invest in either CLR or HLF.
Which one you like better and why?

Q: I am significantly down in my RSP in these two companies and was wondering if they are still a hold. I cannot sell for a loss but will be converting to a RIF soon, so it might be time to move on to a better dividend growth stock?? (same sector ??)
Peter