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Investment Q&A

Not investment advice or solicitation to buy/sell securities. Do your own due diligence and/or consult an advisor.

Q: Hi 5iResearch team,

I currently have a position on BAM.A which represents about 4% of my portfolio. Given that it has not done much price wise over the last year or so, I was thinking of moving some money from BAM.A and put it in FSZ.

Just wondering if you agree with this move and if you do what %age of my BAM.A current holding should I move.

Cheers,
Harry
Read Answer Asked by Harry on April 09, 2017
Q: Circling back on Leon's Furniture as a stable dividend paying stock with hidden potential...


Furniture business is a tough one but Leon's is likely the best operator:
- there is no shortage of tough competition in this fragmented industry: Ikea, Costco, Wallmart, Sleep Country, Superstores and partially Amazon on-line & US shopping (although only subset of their inventory like electronics as people won't buy entire dining set on-line or load in their trunk across the US border).

- on the positive, landscape is also improving: bought their biggest / most direct competitor The Brick in 2013, Target is out of Canada, Future Shop closed and Sears Home is almost bankrupt.


Checking the financials, I was surprised to find Leon's actually growing despite tough Canadian economy: 2015 SSS: +1.2% and 2106 SSS: +4.1% - but based on above, to build a conservative case, I assume no sales growth going forward.


What struck my eye in the latest company presentation on their website is the likely financial improvement to come from internal synergies left from The Brick acquisition. Two slides caught my attention:

- "1% SG&A reduction = $20M savings": classical Leon's ran at ~32% while post-Brick, it shot up to 37.5%. In 2016, it finally started coming down to 36.5% with IT systems integration late 2015. Assuming it can continue synergies and get 1% down yearly over the next 4 years, it would add $0.24 to EPS yearly ($20M/83M shares).

- "$50M per year for debt repayment": From MD&A, current debt is $240M after $50M was indeed repaid in 2016. interest at ~3% so yearly interest expense savings of $0.03 yearly ($240M/$50M = 4.8 years; $13.3M interest / 4.8 years = $2.77M and $2.77/83M shares = $0.03).

- 2016 EPS was $1.05. Even with no growth, SG&A and Interest reduction could add $0.27 in 2017 (0.24+0.03) - with same savings target over next 4 years bringing to 2020: SG&A to 32.5% (pre-Brick acquisition) and almost all debt paid, with EPS up to $2.13. Even if hit only part of these targets, there is a lot of potential internal clean-up to improve financials.


A couple of other supporting item to thesis:
- Very aligned Management as Leon family owns 67% of the stock;
- Own most of their real estate, some rumors of possible REIT spin-off last year to unlock value;
- 20% dividend increase last quarter after a few years flat;
- Insider buying (Mark Leon bought 52K shares on March 8 for ~$900K)


Now back at ~$17, valuation seems modest compared to its 10-year average. LNF seems a good value stock - flying under the radar. Is above reasonable / realistic thesis? Thanks for your comments!
Read Answer Asked by Jennifer on April 09, 2017
Q: Hi 5i, As one who remembers double digit interest rates, I've been wondering if and when the worm will turn again. It sounds like expectations are becoming pretty entrenched for higher rates in the US, and if that turns out to be true would expect Canada to follow with a year or two lag. Is there a typical pattern or approach that suggests which sectors and investment types benefit in a rising rate environment?

Thx for your excellent service!
Read Answer Asked by Rick on April 09, 2017
Q: Hi,

I recently sold cineplex for a nice gain in a taxable account, and i am holding
Sylogist with a loss almost equal to my gain on cineplex.
I am thinking I should sell my Sylogist to offset part
of my capital gain on Cineplex with a view to buying back
Sylogist (or not) after 30 days. Is there anything wrong with this plan ? If Sylogist is till not performing after 30 days would Vermillion (VET) make a suitable replacement. My only other energy holding is PKI (sorry the name escapes me right now)

Thank you gor considering my question and your advice.

Thank you
Read Answer Asked by Leonard on April 07, 2017
Q: Can you please help me prioritize these stocks I'm considering for my income account. I understand that some are higher risk. Thanks.
Read Answer Asked by EVAN on April 07, 2017
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