Investment Q&A

Q: Reviewing my portfolio at this time of year,i have decided to take a more defensive approach for 2018.I have recently purchased a couple of gold stocks(aem & lk).I am unsure if gold still has the downside protection for a portfolio that it used to.
Also with the expected interest rate increases will dividend paying large caps have the desired benefit of portfolio protection?
Do you have any suggestions on some debt free dividend paying companies that will do well in a flat or slightly down market.I don't care if they are small,medium or large cap companies!

Q: I currently hold a very small position in Enbridge (1.5%) and a very large position in CDIC-guaranteed High Interest Savings Accounts (HISA's). I am retired and capital preservation has become important to me. HISA yields are about 1% while ENB yield is more than 5%. However, ENB dipped below $44 briefly this morning, which represents a 20% drop over the past year. Would you recommend switching some of my HISA's to ENB at this time to obtain a better yield?

Q: why do trailing stop loss orders sometimes not work and you find the stock has dropped below the price that you had set your trailing stop loss at. I appreciate your expertise. thanks

Q: I am hoping you can address this question ( I know it might be difficult to answer) in your comments you mention "you are comfortable good long term" is there anyway to define this .i.e. next 1, 2 or 3 year - I know no one has a crystal ball. Second point I have always used the philosophy if you get a bad quarter usually a concern "cockroach theory" time to move on and find something else especially if you are in the stock. So if you have companies that report a poor quarter - would you use this approach especially if you want to outperform the market (more of a earnings and price momentum style). Thanks.

Q: Could you provide, for the latest quarter, the ratio of beats and misses todate for both the US and Canada.
Earning and revenue if possible.
Thanks
Ed

Q: Hi everyone at 5i! I need a clarification about bonds. I have heard that bonds are facing head winds with the anticipated increase in interest rates. I have a portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% fixed. My fixed component consists of GICs, bonds, some preferreds and ETFs of XHY, CBO and CPD. These ETFs pay me a nice dividend monthly. My strategy is to invest my monthly dividend into the ETF that is lagging to get the greatest value for my dollar. Considering that the value of these ETFs may fall ( hopefully just in the short term) would you consider this an ok strategy or would you refrain from putting more money in bonds and preferreds. Cheers, Tamara

Q: Hello 5i,
Love the new website. you must have put a lot of work into it. Thank you very much for your efforts.
I have been concerned about what is often called the 'housing bubble" in Canada. I am certainly no expert but house prices to rent, to income, per capita gdp and just the general high degree of debt in our country.

Knowing that I am not an expert in this area I don't want to bet too heavily on this fear. So, I think I have found a solution and thought i would run it by you for your commentary.
I don't have a lot of real estate other than my own home. So I am not worried about that, I am going to live here anyway. But, it seems like the Canadian banks would be hit if there was a big drop. I don't know if you know of other industries which would be affected?
Now, I have about ten percent in fixed income and I think all of that is in US funds in a rrif. I thought I might shave off some of the banks and buy my fixed income in Canadian funds. Then I would invest all of my US funds in stocks.

The big problems with this plan, as I see it, are capital gains and especially hold ing my fixed income outside a registered account ( because this is where my banks are, from which I would be raising the money). Of course at todays rates the taxes on the fixed income outside the sheltered accounts wouldn't amount to that much anyway. I know that you speacilise in straight forward questions on stocks but I notice that you sometimes venture further afield and reply to questions of strategy. So, i hope I qualify for this latitude. There may be a few questions in here so take off the points necessary
thanks

Q: Hello Folks:
Thank you again for your terrific service!
I am a 71 yr. old investor who has never kept any amount of cash in our accounts.
I feel there may be a serious negative re-evaluation approaching for world
markets; therefore considering moving to a half cash position, as we rely on returns for a good portion of our income. It is a difficult choice as dividend and rising equity prices have been very good since the recession, however nothing remains stagnant.
Our portfolio is primarily large cap US stocks and some quality dividend paying Canadian equities.
As always, I appreciate your point of view and suggestions
Brian

Q: Great new website.

My question is about interest rates. I saw an interview recently discussing interest rate cycles, stating that we have have had 30 years of interest rate decreases, that interest rates have now bottomed and we have begun a long term trend of rate increase. The guest also said that the last long term rate increase cycle was during the 1950s and 1960s. During that 20 year period, the interest payments on bonds were mostly offset by capital losses, resulting in a net return of less than a half of 1 percent annually over 20 years while stocks returned 19% annually over that period. In your opinion, what would be the catalyst for a repeat of this scenario? Does this mean that retirees should shun bonds in favour of stocks even though the risk might be higher?

Thanks and great work

Q: Hi! Are we getting a sustainable energy rebound? If yes could you arrange the following stocks in order of preference: TOG, BIR, NVA, KEL, SPE, TOU and perhaps Xeg.
Thank you!

Q: I would appreciate your thoughts on how one should diversify his investments geographically, (Canada, United States, and Internationally). What do you think would be the percentages I should allocate to each area? I realize allocation is a personal decision but I'm looking for some kind of general guideline. I consider myself to be an average investor and therefore willing to accept some risk.
Being a member of 5i, and following your guidance, I think I have the my Canadian investments under control but I would appreciate some help for the U.S. and international allocations.
I would also appreciate it if you would suggest your favourite ETF to invest in the United States and internationally.

Q: http://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-news-could-be-headed-for-one-of-worst-disasters-in-history-2017-10

Do you think the article is right or is this article initself flawed?

Q: Taking a pessimistic view, if Nafta talks fail, and Trump abandons the agreement, then which Canadian based companies are likely to be hit hardest? i.e. can you provide a short list of companies that get very significant export revenue from the U.S. ?
Thanks,
Philip

Q: I would like your opinion on possibility of NAFTA termination.
What would be impact on Canadian stocks?
What sectors and companies would be most impacted?
Could it trigger recession?

Thanks,
Milan

Q: So given the increasingly pessimistic outlook on NAFTA coming from just about everyone, is it time to start considering which stocks, like Magna, might be worst hit in the event Trump cancels it and maybe moving into different sectors?

Q: The question of what to do when one is worried about the possibility of a sharp market correction often arises. In the past you have proposed increasing the portfolio allocation to cash. As a complement to that strategy, what about tilting the portfolio more toward low beta (less than 0.5, say) stocks? I’m thinking of stocks like L, ECI, CSH.UN, KBL, SJ, SLF. How much protection - qualitatively speaking -do you think that would provide against the possibility of a sharp correction of, say, 10-15%?

Q: Like many others, I rely on my stock portfolio for income. Fixed income won't provide it. The possibility of a significant correction seems to be not a matter of if, but when, and the prospect of another 40% drop portfolio value is scary, especially at this point in life. Based on the past couple of crashes it takes 4-5 years of agony to recover.
However with a portfolio of companies having a history of NOT cutting dividends through the market crashes, the income relied on would be preserved, and the recovery period somewhat less painful. So thats the type of portfolio I'd like to see 5i construct. Rosenburg's recent comments on BNN suggest good balance sheet, predictable earnings, low correlation to economy. I would add liquidity, ( I find that a number of the stocks 5i portfolios just don't have enough trading volume).
Whats your thoughts on this strategy? Is there enough of these companies, and suggestions?

Q: I am new to this forum but have been 'investing' faithfully for over 30 years (what that really means is that I have been funding both mutual funds and the investment advisor buying them - last year that was $9,000 for the investor for me and my husband combined for the mutual funds to earn net 4.4% (the SandP/TSX was at 17.51). I'm tired of the high anxiety fear factor he generates for 4.4%. For the fee, he can earn us between 2 and 4% in coming years and insists this is a good thing.
Why wouldn't I buy Berkshire Hathaway A with the money currently invested in mutual funds and the advisor and invest on my own using a couple of your portfolio models with the money I have stashed? At this stage I am 56 years old so not a big risk taker and want to preserve what I/we have. With thanks, Wendy

Q: I have a relatively large cash position in my RRSP which I would like to invest for 3 to 6 months in an ultra safe place due to the political uncertainty at the moment. Do you have any suggestions?

Q: Hi 5i,
When structuring a retirement portfolio (with no major pension for income) many investors try to optimize income from dividends and sometimes interest. Do you have any comments about using a total return approach that factors in not only dividends and interest, but capital gains as well? My thinking is that some of the capital gains could be realized as another form of income by selling a portion of a growth holding. Any further thoughts about how to decide what percentage of the equity portion of the portfolio should be dividends vs. growth (capital gains)? Also, in your view does this broader approach increase or reduce the risk/return tradeoff overall? I realize this is a complex question but any insights would be appreciated.
Thank you, Michael