Investment Q&A

Q: The TSX appears to be shrugging off the US/Canada trade agreement without much interest, once again by far the worst performing north American index. Are you surprised at the lack of response? Would you expect much going forward or should money be moved into US markets?

Q: Feeling that Canadian stocks were due for a post NAFTA bounce, I am "all in " on Canada. My thinking is that while some companies and sectors will get an immediate boost, there is also a good chance that other Canadian companies, even ones that don't benefit too directly from NAFTA, will get another look over the medium (3 months to 1 year) term due to the improved stability of the investment environment. Obviously things can happen, but, in gneral, does this scneario make sense to you? Thank-you.

Q: A U.S. based financial advisor who specializes in ETF’s and is bearish on the market states in his weekly newsletter that a retired individual should hold an equivalent percentage of bonds as their age in their portfolio:

What would be your thoughts on this degree of allocation and what would you suggest?

Would your allocation change if the individual has already accumulated sufficient capital to take them to the end and still leave a nice inheritance?

If you do think that a retiree should have a percentage of bonds in their portfolio can you provide some ETF’s?

Thank you for considering my questions.

Q: Hi 5i Team,
At the recent Toronto Money Show, David Rosenberg advised that the leading indicators he monitors are showing signs of an economic slowdown. He advised people to become defensive. My question is what does he mean by defensive and how does a retail buy and hold investor do this. Would it be possible to give examples of defensive sectors and stocks?

Thanks and regards,
Danny

Q: Interest rates (as reflected in the 10 year U.S. T-bond) are up again today.
Canadian term deposit rates are at the same time starting to make me feel all pink and fuzzy. Over the last while I've started to build a ladder of rate reset preferred shares (5 yr with a floor) mixed with term deposits of varying durations, and at the same time moving slowly out of common stocks except for special situations. Good idea or too short-sighted?
(Full disclosure, I am very much a senior). Thank you.

Q: After the 2008 recession, which stocks/commodities made the quickest comeback. Also, which market US or Canada?

Q: can you help me understand why a stock earning 6% dividend and growing the dividend annually by 4% is not as good as a stock earning 4% and growing the dividend annually by 6%

Q: when i started investing 40 years ago i remember watching a young mario gabelli who was everywhere saying NEVER FIGHT THE TAPE.
i bring this up in relation to the marijuana stocks, when all this started i agreed with you, but about 3 months ago i stopped fighting the tape and joined the party and i have made a huge killing but also my year, i am mostly out now, so my question is you constantly talk about momentum, new highs etc etc but you never participated, imagine what mj could have done to your portfolios, why. dave

Q: I know that no one can predict the next market correction/ recession, but with the Yield curve getting quite close to inverting, being this long in the cycle, and low unemployment, how cautious should I be at this time.

I normally just continue investing every couple months.

With your advice I feel quite diversified across many sectors with some international investments in as well. That being said, is now or ever a good time to trim a little bit of everything have have cash ready for the next crash.

Would you ever invest in an inverse ETF during a market crash/correction, or is cash the better holding during that time?

If I think a crash may come in the next few months what percentage of cash would be an acceptable amount.

Thanks, Colin.

Q: I just read the report by Eric Lascelles and the team of economists at RBC (Sept 7/18).They give a 1% probability to a modernized NAFTA that produces positive economic outcomes. All the other scenarios are negative with the highest probability (35%) given to the US getting all their demands with of course negative economic effects for all parties. Given this, a sane person has to wonder why we are even discussing changing NAFTA. As investors though, are we better to ignore all of this and assume well managed Canadian companies will adjust and emerge competitive once they know the new rules, or should we try to be more proactive. I am assuming you lean toward the former.
Your thoughts are appreciated.
Mike

Q: Trudeau's Canada is dead for business. No Pipelines, he wants to wean off Tar Sands, farmers can't get grain to markets Railways too busy hauling Oil, major international Oil Companies have left Canada, Why would any International Company want to expand into Canada ?, Uncertainty towards NAFTA is overhang to stock markets. Do we have to wait for Conservatives to come to power for our Stock Markets to improve. I guess the alternative is to be fully invested in the USA , Frustrated Investor RAK.

Q: My question is 2 part.
I am a long term investor, ok with risk and fluctuations and no need for the cash anytime soon.
Ive read a few of your comments regarding some hesitation towards emerging markets. Would you sell out of VEE or do you see it doing something positive soon?
What do you think about buying into one of the trillion dollar companies now? I was hoping for a dip on Amazon, but that doesnt seem likely to happen. Do you have a favorite? Would you reccomend using the proceeds from VEE to do this or keeping VEE and using new money?

Q: Re:your answer to Johns question of august 27th. 10 pick of best company's to best weather a correction. Would you consider a portfolio of 30% pmif and 70% these 10 picks at 5% each to be a decent portfolio no matter an iminent significant correction is at hand or not or would you tweek it in some way. Thank you kindly. Larry

Q: Hello Peter / Ryan
Generally speaking, is there anything out there that really worries you about the way the economy is currently or where it is headed ? On the whole, you seem optimistic / upbeat and I'm wondering what it takes to shake you up and make you nervous. Just curious.

Thanks

Q: Should a NAFTA like agreement not be reached and worse case scenario, the Trump administration hits Canadian autos with a 25% tariff, how big a hit will this be to the Canadian economy and what do you see as a likely outcome?

Q: Given the expected volatility in the upcoming U.S. Election, and not wanting to face tax consequences by selling equities outside of Registered Accounts, what reasonably priced "Puts" and duration of "Puts" would you potentially suggest placing as insurance to protect the rest of the portfolio?

Q: What are your top 5 recommended stocks (in order of preference) that would do the survive the best through a recession?

Q: Preferred Shares: How to evaluate risk? How have blue chip preferred shares behaved during previous massive downturns such as 1987 and 2008? Have they gone down as much as regular shares? Thank you for your fine service.

Q: In the past, when asked what the optimal geographic allocation is for the 'typical' Canadian investor with a long time horizon, 5i has variably replied 50/30/20 Cdn/US/Intl and 50/40/10 Cdn/US/Intl. Does this answer change if one considers the Canadian 'dividend-focused' investor, where the dividend tax credit would be a significant consideration? For this type of investor, would a higher allocation to Canadian equities be acceptable/preferable? If so, what would you consider to be a prudent 'upper limit' (percentage-wise) for the Canadian portion of one's total equity exposure? How would you allocate the balance between US and Intl. equities? Thank you.

Q: It has been often suggested that an easy way to create a portfolio is to select the top 2 highest market cap stocks in each sector on the TSX and
hold them. What is your opinion of the performance of such a portfolio? Joe