Q: Are the U.S. futures that are published ahead of market opening a reliable indicator of the direction of the market for that day? How well does the futures prediction correlate with the actual market openings?
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Investment Q&A
Not investment advice or solicitation to buy/sell securities. Do your own due diligence and/or consult an advisor.
Q: I would like to get your thoughts on an equal weight approach vs a market weight approach with the S&P 500. This would be for long term performance holds of 10, 20 years.
Q: Any general comments on the current market sell off? Thanks.
(I hate to get into the mode of worrying that this is the start of a bear market scenario - prolonged time of continued losses. The cure to that worry for me would be reasons x, y, and z to be reassured that is not happening at this time. And so, if one just waits it out.. things will eventually come back, and go higher too)
(I hate to get into the mode of worrying that this is the start of a bear market scenario - prolonged time of continued losses. The cure to that worry for me would be reasons x, y, and z to be reassured that is not happening at this time. And so, if one just waits it out.. things will eventually come back, and go higher too)
Q: could you please comment on todays decline in both the tsx and dow any reasons why and is this a correction or a sign of things to come thankyou
Q: Can you help with secor allocation for 2018. Realise that the allocation will vary depending on factors such as risk tolerance, age etc. Just seeking your thoughts on reasonable ranges for allocation with a view to tweaking our investments. Thank you as always for your much appreciated assistance.
Q: Hi 5-i:
I read somewhere that the volumes in the stock markets are generally highest at the open and near the close , because etf's are investing any
overages. Any truth in this? Could I assume that this is a good time or
bad time to trade. When in your opinion is the ideal time of day, if any?
Thanks,
BEN.
I read somewhere that the volumes in the stock markets are generally highest at the open and near the close , because etf's are investing any
overages. Any truth in this? Could I assume that this is a good time or
bad time to trade. When in your opinion is the ideal time of day, if any?
Thanks,
BEN.
Q: Hi 5I
Do you ever think it is a good idea to overweight certain sectors, for example currently, financials. Unbalancing an otherwise normally balanced portfolio?
Do you ever think it is a good idea to overweight certain sectors, for example currently, financials. Unbalancing an otherwise normally balanced portfolio?
Q: Please respond as you see fit, private if you deem appropriate.
Although no one can guarantee the future, having a forward vision at least gives some perspective and/or at least an opinion/position to work from. With fixed income rates low and now rising, issues surrounding the potential risks to so called bond proxies, what is an educated guess as to their potential downside risks? Basically, using your expertise, how much might a maximum correction possibly look like? I prefer to hear what I need to know but understand the comments of certain people can create fear /panic for others!
What would you consider the new "Norm" for interest rates both short and long term? Some suggest a period comparable to the 1950s and early 60s where rate structures were low? That said, will savers continue to be subjected to economic repression? Predictions of the short end moving as high as 3% and if so, would say 4% (or higher) constitute a reasonable spread for the 10 year? I often hear analysts use the 10 year rate to model values?
Would real return bonds be a good anti inflationary component since there is also talk of inflation actually picking up more than expected? Is not the yield over inflation fixed and should inflation pick up might a spread with the market occur? Assuming a fixed/ equity portfolio of 35/65 %, what % of the fixed income portion could be considered a ballpark number representing a full weight for real return bonds ?
Rising rates are often the sign of an improving economy and somewhat of a counter weight to offset yield shifts. Some may say my questions want it both ways. My primary concern, years of engineered responses now showing their Achilles' heel and a period of "detox" ahead of us to correct them?
My approach, at least understand all the risks and the options to build a portfolio that matches the conclusions and risks you are comfortable with. There are a few guest on BNN who are even cautioning about too much get rich thinking!
Given I raise multiple points, please feel free to respond with a few bottom line general comments if that is what deem appropriate.
FYI. I go on the site daily with a goal of reading every response. It provides a great base of information and knowledge in a very timely fashion. Keep up the great work and thank you.
Mike
Although no one can guarantee the future, having a forward vision at least gives some perspective and/or at least an opinion/position to work from. With fixed income rates low and now rising, issues surrounding the potential risks to so called bond proxies, what is an educated guess as to their potential downside risks? Basically, using your expertise, how much might a maximum correction possibly look like? I prefer to hear what I need to know but understand the comments of certain people can create fear /panic for others!
What would you consider the new "Norm" for interest rates both short and long term? Some suggest a period comparable to the 1950s and early 60s where rate structures were low? That said, will savers continue to be subjected to economic repression? Predictions of the short end moving as high as 3% and if so, would say 4% (or higher) constitute a reasonable spread for the 10 year? I often hear analysts use the 10 year rate to model values?
Would real return bonds be a good anti inflationary component since there is also talk of inflation actually picking up more than expected? Is not the yield over inflation fixed and should inflation pick up might a spread with the market occur? Assuming a fixed/ equity portfolio of 35/65 %, what % of the fixed income portion could be considered a ballpark number representing a full weight for real return bonds ?
Rising rates are often the sign of an improving economy and somewhat of a counter weight to offset yield shifts. Some may say my questions want it both ways. My primary concern, years of engineered responses now showing their Achilles' heel and a period of "detox" ahead of us to correct them?
My approach, at least understand all the risks and the options to build a portfolio that matches the conclusions and risks you are comfortable with. There are a few guest on BNN who are even cautioning about too much get rich thinking!
Given I raise multiple points, please feel free to respond with a few bottom line general comments if that is what deem appropriate.
FYI. I go on the site daily with a goal of reading every response. It provides a great base of information and knowledge in a very timely fashion. Keep up the great work and thank you.
Mike
Q: Hi 5I
In 2008 i held my portfolio all through financial crisis even though it was very unsettling.I feel i made a huge mistake by not raising cash! There where unbelievable bargains of the canadian banks as one example with huge dividends available.Fast forward,now 64 years of age i have raised cash because i feel that a similar opportunity may exist. Maybe not to the extent of 2008,but it is with the strategy of picking up blue chip companies with enhanced yields for my retirement.
I have kept some good paying dividend stocks,preferred shares,debentures.
I am willing at this time in my life to forego some capital gain,to hopefully attain higher yields.
I concede that this is timing the market,but it is a strategy that i feel will help me in retirement.
Your thoughts?
In 2008 i held my portfolio all through financial crisis even though it was very unsettling.I feel i made a huge mistake by not raising cash! There where unbelievable bargains of the canadian banks as one example with huge dividends available.Fast forward,now 64 years of age i have raised cash because i feel that a similar opportunity may exist. Maybe not to the extent of 2008,but it is with the strategy of picking up blue chip companies with enhanced yields for my retirement.
I have kept some good paying dividend stocks,preferred shares,debentures.
I am willing at this time in my life to forego some capital gain,to hopefully attain higher yields.
I concede that this is timing the market,but it is a strategy that i feel will help me in retirement.
Your thoughts?
Q: In my balanced portfolio, I think I am underweight in the following sectors: Energy 2% [ENB], Healthcare 3% [GUD], Telecom 7% [T, VOX], and perhaps overweight in Materials 10% [AEM,CCL.B, SJ, MX] and Tech 18% [CSU, DSG, ENGH, SHOP, PHO]. What is your opinion, and what should I buy or sell to rectify this? I have cash available. Many thanks, as always.
Ellen
Ellen
Q: Hi. I have been investing in small/micro cap value stocks(CAD) for several years because I had a small portfolio size. Now with a larger port I am adding names from the Balanced portfolio but still have a large portion in the small/micro cap value. My small cap value have been fairly flat since a large gain in 2013. I also notice your growth portfolio has been flat so I think this 4 years of poor performance has to do with a market cycle and not a long term change. With your experience in the market is this normal or is the small/micro cap valve out of favor due to the market becoming more efficient. I am willing to stick with my portfolio but I don't want to wait years when I should have made a change. Let me know if this in normal and how long usually do these cycles last. Thank you again.
Derek
Derek
Q: Hi Peter, Ryan and Team,
Since I do not have access to a computer or smart phone at work, I do all my buy or sell transactions in the evening from home after the market has closed through TD Direct Investment.
So on Thursday Jan 25, 2018 I decided to buy Intuitive Surgical Inc. symbol ISRG in the U.S. because of its recent momentum. The closing price was 449.81 and the high price for the day was 452.00. Since I was dipping my feet in with a very small position of only 2 shares I placed my order with a limit price of $454.57 i.e. $2.57 per share higher than the high price of the day. I have found that this eliminates missing out if the stock opens higher the next day.
The next morning i.e Friday Jan 26, 2018 on my first break at work approximately 10 am I saw that I had a missed call at 8. 20 AM from TD but there was no voice mail message. So I called them and a TD agent told me that my order for 2 shares was cancelled by TD before the market opened because “ my limit price was too aggressive since ISRG was going to open lower at 437.37 ”
My understanding was that in such a situation my limit order would have changed to a market order at market open at 9.30 AM and should have been filled at the lower price. Because there is no way for most investors to predict that a stock is going to open much lower the next day.
The TD agent was unable to tell me what the threshold is to constitute “a too aggressive bid price”. Since I still wanted to buy the shares he manually put in the order for me and charged me $43.00 for the trade instead of my regular online rate of $9.99.
I would appreciate if you would advise me the reasons for and the ways to avoid such a situation in future without calling in to TD each time I place a buy order. Thank you in advance.
Frank
Since I do not have access to a computer or smart phone at work, I do all my buy or sell transactions in the evening from home after the market has closed through TD Direct Investment.
So on Thursday Jan 25, 2018 I decided to buy Intuitive Surgical Inc. symbol ISRG in the U.S. because of its recent momentum. The closing price was 449.81 and the high price for the day was 452.00. Since I was dipping my feet in with a very small position of only 2 shares I placed my order with a limit price of $454.57 i.e. $2.57 per share higher than the high price of the day. I have found that this eliminates missing out if the stock opens higher the next day.
The next morning i.e Friday Jan 26, 2018 on my first break at work approximately 10 am I saw that I had a missed call at 8. 20 AM from TD but there was no voice mail message. So I called them and a TD agent told me that my order for 2 shares was cancelled by TD before the market opened because “ my limit price was too aggressive since ISRG was going to open lower at 437.37 ”
My understanding was that in such a situation my limit order would have changed to a market order at market open at 9.30 AM and should have been filled at the lower price. Because there is no way for most investors to predict that a stock is going to open much lower the next day.
The TD agent was unable to tell me what the threshold is to constitute “a too aggressive bid price”. Since I still wanted to buy the shares he manually put in the order for me and charged me $43.00 for the trade instead of my regular online rate of $9.99.
I would appreciate if you would advise me the reasons for and the ways to avoid such a situation in future without calling in to TD each time I place a buy order. Thank you in advance.
Frank
Q: You replied to Michael today: "trim the areas that have done really well and add to the laggards". I can perhaps understand trimming back a position that one has done well but what is the logic of adding to laggards? Isn't this advice really suggesting you pull out the good stuff and add more weeds?
Q: Hello 5i.
I would like to ask about Portfolio Management as an Individual Investor.
This year I was going to implement an action plan that would engage selling at the point of stock chart breakdown......to help avoid 40% losses like Cineplex handed me in 2017/2018.
The Portfolio has been set up to be well diversified with 5i holdings and a host of other Canadian investments through all sectors.
It feels quite silly to just sit and watch individual names break up trends, breach 50 day and 100 day moving averages and continue to decline in price........taking down the Portfolio value each day.
Some of the names have been spoken about as lifetime holds but seem to be getting hit quite hard as some group of investors have decided to exit their positions.
With the cost of only 9.95 to enable a small investor to get out of the way, what is it about investing that sees recommendations implying Hold these names for the longterm?
(BAM.A, BIP.UN, FTS, PPL, IPL, ENB, BCE, PSK)
Watching 2017 gains slip away hardly makes sense to me.
What is 5i perspective on dealing with markets that seem to be taking away gains thru declining stock prices? How and When does an investor decide getting out is the right action (before I get to the point of maximum pain and then sell)?
I have had a few stocks go to zero. Clearly I can not determine the difference between a short term blip and a developing permanent loss.
Thanks for you insights
Dave
I would like to ask about Portfolio Management as an Individual Investor.
This year I was going to implement an action plan that would engage selling at the point of stock chart breakdown......to help avoid 40% losses like Cineplex handed me in 2017/2018.
The Portfolio has been set up to be well diversified with 5i holdings and a host of other Canadian investments through all sectors.
It feels quite silly to just sit and watch individual names break up trends, breach 50 day and 100 day moving averages and continue to decline in price........taking down the Portfolio value each day.
Some of the names have been spoken about as lifetime holds but seem to be getting hit quite hard as some group of investors have decided to exit their positions.
With the cost of only 9.95 to enable a small investor to get out of the way, what is it about investing that sees recommendations implying Hold these names for the longterm?
(BAM.A, BIP.UN, FTS, PPL, IPL, ENB, BCE, PSK)
Watching 2017 gains slip away hardly makes sense to me.
What is 5i perspective on dealing with markets that seem to be taking away gains thru declining stock prices? How and When does an investor decide getting out is the right action (before I get to the point of maximum pain and then sell)?
I have had a few stocks go to zero. Clearly I can not determine the difference between a short term blip and a developing permanent loss.
Thanks for you insights
Dave
Q: I am noticing that alot of investors are very worried about a market correction. It is a fact that the market will drop at one point but are we overdoing it at this point and time. If the market is to have a correction in the next 12 to 16 months isnt it still time to be invested in the stronger sectors and maby pull back on the weaker ones
Q: Hi there, thanks for the January update. Reading between the lines and with the current strength in the market so far this month, would you suggest holding a larger cash position at this time? I am currently almost 100% invested at the moment. What would be an appropriate amount for a cash position in the current market climate? Thanks!
Q: In light of the accelerating run up in global equity valuations over the past several months, what percentage of one's investment portfolio would you suggest be kept in cash? Gold equities? I'm an investor with a long term time horizon.
Q: Hello 5i team,
Your January update (like everything else that you do) was much appreciated.
Over the past decade, whereas I would have been satisfied with a 7% compound annual return in order to meet my income needs, my RRIF portfolio registered a growth rate of 15% compound p.a. That’s great! However, in the last 3 years while I kept expecting a lower return, the actual returns kept confirming the long term trend.
Once again, if the estimated returns for the next 15 years (age 90) were to be 7% annually, I would be very happy.
This scenario would be my “base case”
However, we should expect a recession during this span of time; it is not a matter of “if” but “when”.
In the past recessions, most of the following indicators (yield curve, inflation trends, labour market, credit/liquidity situation, ISM index, earnings quality and housing market) painted a recessionary picture. The average market drop of the last 4 recessions was around 40%, the average duration around 1 year and the average recovery period around 2 years.
At present, and for now; all of these indicators are in an expansionary mode.
What should I do to prepare for or react to the upcoming recession hits?
1. I could ride the recession (stay invested); in this scenario, my annual income would be 21% lower than in the base case.
2. I could exit after the start of the recession (while closely observing the leading indicators). Incur a 20% drop in the value of my portfolio (vs 40%), partially miss the first part of the recovery and obtain 15% (vs assumed 33%) and on to the second leg 25% recovery. In this scenario, my annual income would be 4% lower than in the base case. This outcome would be quite acceptable; it’s just like a rounding error.
3. I could also try to be “cute” and exit just before the start of the recession. This scenario would be a “non-starter” because it implies “timing the market”. Imagine if I exited the market in early 2019 and the recession did not hit until 2 years later……
I’m therefore leaning towards scenario 2. What do you think? What do you suggest?
Thanks, as always,
Antoine
Your January update (like everything else that you do) was much appreciated.
Over the past decade, whereas I would have been satisfied with a 7% compound annual return in order to meet my income needs, my RRIF portfolio registered a growth rate of 15% compound p.a. That’s great! However, in the last 3 years while I kept expecting a lower return, the actual returns kept confirming the long term trend.
Once again, if the estimated returns for the next 15 years (age 90) were to be 7% annually, I would be very happy.
This scenario would be my “base case”
However, we should expect a recession during this span of time; it is not a matter of “if” but “when”.
In the past recessions, most of the following indicators (yield curve, inflation trends, labour market, credit/liquidity situation, ISM index, earnings quality and housing market) painted a recessionary picture. The average market drop of the last 4 recessions was around 40%, the average duration around 1 year and the average recovery period around 2 years.
At present, and for now; all of these indicators are in an expansionary mode.
What should I do to prepare for or react to the upcoming recession hits?
1. I could ride the recession (stay invested); in this scenario, my annual income would be 21% lower than in the base case.
2. I could exit after the start of the recession (while closely observing the leading indicators). Incur a 20% drop in the value of my portfolio (vs 40%), partially miss the first part of the recovery and obtain 15% (vs assumed 33%) and on to the second leg 25% recovery. In this scenario, my annual income would be 4% lower than in the base case. This outcome would be quite acceptable; it’s just like a rounding error.
3. I could also try to be “cute” and exit just before the start of the recession. This scenario would be a “non-starter” because it implies “timing the market”. Imagine if I exited the market in early 2019 and the recession did not hit until 2 years later……
I’m therefore leaning towards scenario 2. What do you think? What do you suggest?
Thanks, as always,
Antoine
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Photon Control Inc. (PHO)
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Parex Resources Inc. (PXT)
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CES Energy Solutions Corp. (CEU)
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ECN Capital Corp. (ECN)
Q: I am heavily overweight with big profits in the above stocks.
Which should I hold onto or sell?
Which will be affected by a NAFTA collapse?
Thanks for great advice.
Alex
Which should I hold onto or sell?
Which will be affected by a NAFTA collapse?
Thanks for great advice.
Alex
Q: Greetings.
I am planning on early retiring next year at 55. I am looking to transition my portfolio form balanced/growth to income. It would seem that although timing the market is not a predictable strategy, it would seem to me that this is probably the perfect time to transition my portfolio given the weaknesses in the utilities, telecom, pipes etc.
I have cash saved for my first 2 years of retirement to avoid being forced to withdraw funds at a 'inopportune time'. However, i also know my portfolio may need to last a number of years prior to being able to claim cpp, oas and social security (spouse of american citizen collecting social security). Would you recommend transitioning now or do i risk too much growth in the next while? Your thoughts/recommendations are always appreciated.
Cheers
I am planning on early retiring next year at 55. I am looking to transition my portfolio form balanced/growth to income. It would seem that although timing the market is not a predictable strategy, it would seem to me that this is probably the perfect time to transition my portfolio given the weaknesses in the utilities, telecom, pipes etc.
I have cash saved for my first 2 years of retirement to avoid being forced to withdraw funds at a 'inopportune time'. However, i also know my portfolio may need to last a number of years prior to being able to claim cpp, oas and social security (spouse of american citizen collecting social security). Would you recommend transitioning now or do i risk too much growth in the next while? Your thoughts/recommendations are always appreciated.
Cheers