Investment Q&A

Q: EquityClockOct 24th, 8:07 am
US New Home Sales down 8.9% YTD, weakest performance since 2008.

Given that housing is known (or so they say) to be a predictor of how well the economy is doing.....what are your thoughts on the above news? Should we worry or at least be cautious?

Thank you!

Q: Over the next year or so I'd like to transition into some US names. I also plan on travelling a fair amount to the US as well. Can you advise on how you feel the Canadian dollar will do.

Also, can you advise on the current state of the economy. Today's increase followed by verbatim that there will be multiple (more than expected) I find concerning for the Canadian economy. We are late in a cycle (as per prior length of cycles) and we this will certainly impact discretionary income significantly. Not even considering an uptick in mortgage defaults which I would imagine would rise just on the basis of simple economics... I guess my question is, do we really see rates rising quicker than expected? Just seems surprising to me.

Deduct as many credits as you wish.

Q: Hi there,

It seems like in this quarter, good results are being punished. Over the last several years this did not seem to ring true. It seemed like good results were rewarded - even on negative sentiment days - however now it seems like good results are received poorly. Does this usual indiciate something much larger going on in the markets?

Thanks

Q: The period November to March is usually a strong market. Should I start putting money into stocks starting in November. Outlook is still good for 2019. If Trumps tariffs come off against China this would help outlook
What is your outlook for 2019 ? Increased profits for US Companies ? A strong stock market in 2019 ? RAK

Q: Bank of Canada just raised the key rate to 1.75% and drops its pledge to move gradually. What's Mr. Poloz seeing that the rest of us are missing because the TSX is singing a much different tune? I hope it's not the part time jobs from the recent elections in Ont, Que & NB. We're a little removed from what's happening in Central Canada but I can safely say the Alberta economy is not running at full capacity. In fact one of the largest land developers in Calgary just recently let go 40 office workers.
It's not the first time the BoC has been offside and had to reverse course. They seem to focus too much on a few key data points and ignore the economy as a whole.

Q: Good afternoon folks:
Is this a healthy correction plus tax loss selling as well? Could u please give your opinion on what retail investors should do in this volatile environment?

Q: Hi there,

I was watching CNBC earlier this morning and they were mentioning awaiting a wash out in the markets before it things can become positive again. Do you believe in the theory of wash outs and is today’s performance reflective of that occurring?

Thanks!

Q: Hi, On BNN Market Call Monday, the guest, in his market outlook segment, suggested that we may be facing a downturn worse than 2008, which is certainly not a very pleasant prospect. Your comments please.

Q: JPMorgan is predicting a 50% chance of a US recession in the next 2 years. One would likely impact Canadian markets like 2008-9. I started investing in the markets this past April and was up over 6% in a short time until Trump started his tariff tirade and eventual war (plus other contributing factors) and now am down over 8%. It would seem this volatility in the markets will only get worse until it gets better. That said, if I recall correctly, BMO recently came out and predicted a TSX rebound that could hit 17,000 before EOY. I am just trying to figure out should I ride out the storm or jump ship at the next port. Based on your market update, specifically, "Investors should keep in mind this is just one quarter in a journey measured in years.", should one still consider riding out the storm?

Q: Good Morning
Technicals on XBM would indicate that we are entering a growth period for base metals, however, "Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS.TO) on Monday said concerns over Donald Trump's trade war with China is likely to dominate the outlook for commodities in the fourth quarter, predicting the issue could be a drag on markets until the 2020 U.S. election. The bank said that while a new North American trade agreement may decrease uncertainty, the U.S. trade war with China is likely to cut commodity prices for most metals."
What is your stance on base metals for the upcoming period?

Carl

Q: ..thinking American midterm elections may be a catalyst if Dems win and dampen the economic momentum (and associated rate increases) going forward...under that scenario do you think utilities would be a good place for relative safety, yield and a possible rebound? thanks.

Q: While your comments could apply to both our Canadian and US markets it is interesting that your slant appears to lean toward US markets rather than Canadian even though the bulk of your research covers Canadian based companies. Sure the US markets are still up this year but it is quite a different picture when looking at the Canadian markets. We are ' not still up' this year but down since January. Interest in the Canadian equity markets is waning for various reasons, taxes, regulatory hurdles, etc. So could you perhaps add some comments that address our markets and investment environment.in the context of our recent performance and future expectations. Thanks.

Q: I saw the question Murray asked on dividend increases of Canadian banks and it made me curious. Could you provide a historical annualized return combining dividends and capital gains for the same banks over the same 18 years { 2000-2018 } ?

Q: Could I have your thoughts on the current worldwide market sell off, what is driving this and how bad can it get? Is it a short term correction or something bigger to worry about?

Q: What would be your guess, in percentage, of another correction happening now like the one last Jan-Apr? It seems to me that there are more real risks now then there were then (interest rate fears, China tarrifs). Do you think if there are strong earnings in November it would move this market up? For some reason I don't think they would.

Q: Gentlemen, With all the selling going on these days, where is the money going? Not sure if you have any tools that give any indication.

Q: Good Afternoon,
Timely question I suppose with the market weakness today, I think the market is due for some weakness and volatility I'm not overly concerned by this. However, I am wondering what 5i's strategy going forward is in regards to the next recession?Perhaps we will find ourselves in a recession within the next few years, what will your strategy be for the B/E model? Can you see yourselves taking a more defensive stance , i.e raising cash, buying defensive sectors ( telecom, staples etc..) or just riding it out? I know the average recession is only about 9 months in duration.
Thanks very much.

Q: I currently have close to my target geographical weighting, but with the current (global) sell-off and cash in my portfolio I am thinking about going a bit overweight either Europe or Emerging Markets. In terms of value for new buying today, how would you rank Canada versus USA, Europe and Emerging Markets?

Q: Looking at the sell offs/drops on both sides of the border the last week, can you offer any advice? I have a long term outlook, and am ok with some risk. Do you see any stocks (on either side) the present a good buy at current levels that are likely to make a good rebound?

Thanks

Q: It's getting ugly out there. Any general comments about what to do (esp. if you like the gains you've had and don't want to see them just relentlessly evaporate?). I realize I've answered my own question but am still interested in any comments that come to your mind.