Investment Q&A

Q: Does your crystal ball predict a market downturn in next six to twelve months.
Clayton

Q: Into which sector(s) or product types(s) besides cash, might you look to add weight if the economy moves negative? Bonds, utilities, staples, preferreds, etc? Don’t always feel like the old guidelines apply anymore.

Q: Follow up to your reply from my last question. we will max out our TFSA as you suggest. In the past we used our RRSPs in to invest in our business, so we have zero RRSPs. would you suggest placing any in them? We will continue to have income from our business after "retirement age" we intend to live in and operate the business as long has health allows. My though was that RRSP will at to the income tax load when it becomes mandatory to start withdrawals.

Q: I have 3% of JPM, am down 400 USD, given the dim view of further FED increases, sh i leave banking , park the money in VGSH or go to divi with PFE or VZ as you earlier recommended. Last 3 mo JPM/PFE/VZ have similar charts but the potential of banking?? compared to VZ+PFE???
Art

Q: 5iResearch is a great service and I really appreciate all the advice subscribers get on individual stocks. Having said that, can I get 5i's opinion on whether it is really possible to outperform the market in the longterm. Most of the literature I have read indicates that buying the S&P500 (ie. a market ETF) is the most time-tested way to be a successful in the markets.

Q: ..given growing expectations of a Canadian recession, i'm thinking of moving away from utilities into fixed income. how do you expect XBB, XSB and HFR to perform in comparison to ZWU if a recession occurs. thanks, great service.

Q: With a lot of talk of a possible recession in the coming year, which of the following category of stocks would be most negatively affected.: telecom, utility, technology, financial,materials,energy, consumer, metals including gold. Thanks.

Q: I have what I think is sort of a 'big' question. I am looking at various ways to help my performance through an eventual recession. I know that timing it is virtually impossible and even calling it (as we saw this fall) is extremely difficult also. So my research now turns to what are the characteristics of a company that will do well (in all likelihood) after a recession, or indeed right around the middle when equities seem to turn higher given that the big losses usually start just ahead of the actual recession and the buying often starts while the recession is still in full bloom. I look at GUD as one company that holds cash and is deal oriented (or is supposed to be) as a kind of exemplar for this type of idea. Any others? Or is this just a mug's game? Thank-you and please deduct whatever credits you deem necessary. Thankyou.

Q: I'm curious how you would adjust your strategy, if at all, in terms of opportunities, signals, cautions or things to watch for, as we head into a 6 month period leading up to the federal election.

Q: Hello! I have identified a Canadian small cap mining company that would be a good allocation fit for my TFSA. It trades on the TSX and NYSE. As it happens, I don't have enough capital in my CAD TFSA account to make a meaningful purchase. I do have enough in my USD TFSA account, however.

My options would be:
- transfer the cash from the USD to CAD account
- raise the capital by triggering a CAD account sale
- buy the US listed shares

Is there anything to be aware of when buying the US listed shares in this case?

And, more generally, where would one exercise caution? I'm thinking of a situation I've seen where US listed shares trade at significantly lower volumes.

Thanks for your consideration.

Q: Some (including Phil Town) are concerned that this is at or above 30. I believe the historic average is about 15. I am also told that an increased Shiller has preceded market crashes historically. I would appreciate your comments in particular as to whether a market crash is in the cards after such a prolonged bull market - a record at 10 years if I recall. Thanks! (Publish this question if you wish)

Q: Over the last decade, I have kept 50% of my portfolio in a US money market fund which now pays 2.27% (TDB166). It has paid as low as 0.05%.

The rest of the portfolio is in a US market index fund which tracks the S&P500 (SPY).

I am happy with the results that this effortless approach to investing produces but am concerned about the US money market fund since the US dollar is so high. Should I get into a Canadian dollar money market fund? Can you suggest any?

Q: Good afternoon
I seem to recall that one of your answers to portfolio balancing for ones entire portfolio outside of Canada could be up to 40% US and 10% or so Emerging and ? Europe. I'm approximately 30% US and thinking of going to 35 or 40% due to the strength of the US. May I have your comments on this strategy at this time for a 3 to 5 year time horizon.
much thanks

Q: Due to health I have been forced into early retirement (51) with no pension. I need a 5% return to live off of my savings. I am presently well diversified 75% CAD dividend companies and fixed income in my non registered account and 25% of my total savings are in registered accounts which follow your balanced portfolio along with GOOG, TEAM, SQ, BOX for US exposure (prob not enough eh?). My gut is telling me I should get rid of the growthy stocks and stick to safe dividend companies but my experience says I should leave it alone as over the long term the balanced portfolio has done quite well.
I would appreciate any and all input you can offer (don't be afraid to hurt my feelings;).

Brian

Q: I would like some recommendations on some companies or ETF's that you like now and going forward. I'm looking for growth as I have a 20year+ time frame and low aversion to risk. I currently hold in my TFSA: CJR.B (down about 5%, should I hold or sell some/all off? -heaviest weighting of portfolio currently), GS, BNS, CPH, CR, KXS, NIF, SIS. Would like to add more companies to TFSA for some more sector diversification and can add to RRSP as well - possibly a growth ETF with US/International exposure? Would appreciate your input, thanks very much.

Q: I have a substantial USD investing and as I age am beginning to think that I should invest some of it in fixed income ie bonds, gic type or preferreds. Do you have any suggestions for me as everyone I listen to focusses on Capital gains strategies only.

Q: Hello 5i
I’d be interested in your comments on this years January “bounce”. Do you feel it is just a bounce due to tax loss selling or are we likely to move higher after January. I realize this is a market call which is a guess at best but I stil value your opinion and insight.
Thank you
Dave

Q: I have noticed recently that Aapl, Amzn, Brk, Googl and V that the daily share volume has been about 70 % of the 10 day volume and Shop and Sq have been at or higher than the 10 day volume ( the stocks mentioned are some companies in my portfolio). To me this means that the rise in share price does not have wide support and could fall soon.
Appreciate your comments on the support of the rally and are people hiding money in short term instruments until they can verify one way or the other the next direction of the market.
Clayton

Q: Following up on your recent response that you would limit investment in Canadian equities to 25-40% of one's portfolio, in what country (US) or countries/regions would you recommend investing the balance...and in what proportions? Thank you.

Q: My question is about global debt as a potential factor affecting markets going forward. According to a report in the Washington Post today global debt is now about 318 percent of world gross domestic product.

The breakdown is reported like this: Government debt has tripled from $20 trillion in 2000 to $65 trillion in 2018, rising as a share of GDP from 55 percent to 87 percent. Household debt has increased over the same years, from $17 trillion to $46 trillion (from 44 percent to 60 percent of GDP). Finally, nonfinancial corporate debt rose from $24 trillion to $73 trillion (71 percent of GDP to 92 percent).

Do you think growing global indebtedness is a serious risk factor investors should be aware of?

Link: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/with-booming-global-debt-were-entering-unexplored-territory/2019/01/16/8896c5e2-19bb-11e9-88fe-f9f77a3bcb6c_story.html?utm_term=.f9c7f2e8f264

Thank you. Michael