Investment Q&A

Q: Given that my Margin account has the 5 big banks and 2 Telecoms paying dividends on a periodic basis and that I'm not "too" concerned that these will cut their dividends, would it be wise to implement trailing stop loss orders for these in case there is another retest of the lows of March. Had I done that at the beginning of the year, I could have picked up the above at much reduce prices with resulting greater dividend yields. And would using the same procedure for my RIF account (which has mainly REITs) be beneficial to capture the current values to avoid further losses there.
Your comments. Thank you

Q: Hi Peter: When I sit back and take a look at the big picture and review how my portfolio performed during COVID-19 (so far), I try to see what lessons I can learn, then turn to how to apply those lessons to make my portfolio stronger.

I am a retired, dividend-income investor. I am a huge believer in asset allocation and have designed a portfolio, in my opinion, to be reasonably well diversified, although heavy to Canada. It WAS roughly 70% equities (including 32% foreign content) and 30% fixed income (roughly 15% insured annuities, 15% Fisgard Capital...both averaging in the 5-6% pre-tax range and minor cash). My equities are mostly blue chip, dividend payers, as you can see above. The 3 mutual funds are a very minor part of my portfolio, especially Eric's Energy Fund (<2%). I also receive a company pension and CPP-OAS which, when included, drops my equities to roughly 32%.

I use various metrics to monitor my portfolio, such as P/E, P/BV, P/CF, P/S, Beta, ROE, Div growth, Payout%, technical indicators like 200 mda. I am normally a buy-and-hold investor who trims/adds around a core position.

Periodically I measure how "at risk" my portfolio is relative to the overall market. I do this by prorating my portfolio using Beta. Based on equities only, I averaged 0.68 and for my entire portfolio I averaged 0.44. So, one would think that if the overall market (TSX) was to drop 30%, then I would have thought my portfolio would drop 44% to 68% of that, being in the range of 13% (overall) to 20% (equities only).

In actual fact, my entire portfolio dropped 27% from peak to trough vs the expected 13%...over double! I understand that EVERYTHING was sold off...almost no exceptions. So what do we learn from this and what changes should we consider? Do we accept that "sxxt happens" once in a while...you can't predict every event, accept it and move on? Should we consider increasing the cash component as a buffer? Or...is there something else to be learned here?

Thanks for you help...much appreciated...Steve

Q: I've been in the market for about ten years. During that time a certain predictability has emerged in what sorts of stocks get most heavily hit during market routs such as today's., and what sorts of stocks are least damaged. That predictability has disappeared since February. In fact, when the market drops down heavily the stocks most likely to be hit hardest are the ones which used to be hit least, like utilities, REITs, banks, and other dividend stocks. Do you have an explanation for this? Shouldn't the low interest rates which make bonds unattractive protect these stocks to some extent?

Q: Hello Peter,
The quarter beginning January is generally good for the market and this year was no exception until the time global economy was paralyzed by covid19. Now we are in May the time for sell and go away. Besides, history would suggest that the recovery does not happen in a straight line. I would like to know what probability you would give for a correction next couple of weeks, before /after the earnings season ends.
The recovery is usually led by large cap which has largely been the case and recently the small caps are showing signs of life as evidenced by the ETF IWO. I am fully invested participating in the recovery and here is the dilemma. Do I stay the course or should I trade the swing if there is a say a 70 percent or more probability of a correction happening soon. And I am not trying to be exact but reasonably close; and could do with your experience and expert opinion on this. And should I raise cash from large caps or the smaller growth stocks, almost all in the tech sector and in the USA. Both will recover eventually but which group would be primed for a trade if that is the route to go.
Thanking you in advance.
Rajiv

Q: I put a bunch of new money into my various holdings after some of the big market drops. I did miss the bottom and have just come into quite a bit more cash. Would you be deploying now after the recent gains, or do you have reason to believe there will be another sell of and decline? I have a tough time thinking the crisis is over, and if the stock market is just going to go up from here that really means the entire world overreacted doesn't it?

Q: Hello Team
I am hearing different comments, and one from David Rosenberg in particular, suggesting it is quite possible to see a 60cent dollar in the not too distant future and I would appreciate your thoughts. Further to this personally I feel that the markets seem to be going through a period of "irrational exuberance" and personally I feel we are only at the beginning of what is to come in terms of a downturn in the Canadian economy. With this in mind, what would your thought be of changing some Canadian dollars in my accounts to US dollars for investment purposes. I would also consider using a US ETF such as GLD to play the rising gold stocks. Appreciate your thoughts

Q: Cnbc headlines: market rallies are based onHOPE of a cure by Gilead. Nothing is conclusive?
Thought hope was not a good investing strategy. Also us gdp contracted by 4.8% in 1st quarter 2020. So fundamentals where far from good to begin with.
When do you think the market will go back to fundamentals?
This could be the reason for 5 trillion on the sideline?
Your view would be most appreciated.
Thanks!

Q: We are now about 15% below the peak for the S&P 500 and 17% below the peak of the TSX this year. Do you think the market is being too optimistic in apparently giving us about an 85% chance that everything will go back to normal very soon?

Q: With the level of debt monetization, fiat currencies are becoming concerning. I was considering contributing new money into my TFSA, but transferring the funds to a US TFSA, and investing directly into US securities instead of CDN.
Even with getting hit with the currency exchange rate and paying applicable withholding taxes within this account, would you recommend this or see any advantage to this, or would you prefer investing in Canadian hedged funds (i.e XQQ vs QQQ) instead?
Many thanks,
Tom

Q: The US deficit is expected to be $3.67 trillion, if no further stimulus comes from the feds. Government revenues will be way down. Other governments, such as in Europe and Canada, have unheard-of deficits as well. This is after government debt was already high.
There's also a belief that interest rates will be lower for longer. This seems the opposite of the early 1980's, when there was a general disbelief that inflation could be tamed, and GIC's regularly paid more than 10%.
To me, inflation has become a necessity, and we are about to see a world-wide focus on making debt more affordable by reducing the value of money (an argument for gold or cryptocurrencies). But what about floating rate debt, and 5 year preferred resets? They're priced as though inflation will never happen.

Q: Hi 5i team, firstly thanks for all the work you do, I’m a new member and am really enjoying the content.

A family member in her early 30’s would like to start investing with a long term time horizon (25-30 years). She has some risk tolerance and is seeking a passive set it and forget it ETF index type of investment strategy. She would make regular contributions and benefit over the long run from dollar cost averaging. Currently she does not have interest in picking individual equities or monitoring market conditions. She has a stable government job that provides a good pension plan and is starting with $10,000 capital.

What are your thoughts on a portfolio starting with the following ETFs; VOO, XIC, VEU, with a weighting of 50% VOO, 40% XIC and 10% VEU for some international exposure? Are there any other ETF’s you would recommend she start with? Do you think the EFTs mentioned provide enough diversity as a starting point? I like the above mentioned ETF's for their low fees and broad exposure.

My thoughts are being that she has many years of investing ahead that ETFs with 100% exposure to equities would provide greater growth potential when compared to ETFs containing a mix of bonds and equities. And that her stable government employer matched pension could be viewed as a bond proxy.

Thanks again for all the great info!

Q: In my view we are facing a volatile market with many ups and downs over the next thee months at least. I am guessing there is a 70% probability of testing the March lows or going even lower. This suggests to me that I should sit tight and wait for the market to drop before investing my cash. Do you agree ?

Q: I know u are more about stock but my question is do u think I should change all my Canadian dollars not invested into US funds. Right now about 50/50 in Canadian stocks and US stocks. With Oil being down the growth in US stocks seem much higher to me. I understand just your opinion..

Q: I hesitate to ask because I find that some of your subscribers expect you to answer questions which are far from your stated ambit, but at the risk of being lumped in with them let me go ahead anyway. Would you know if the Government of Canada published a budget for 2020-2021, and if so, did it change the capital gains tax formulation? Many thanks.

Q: Hi there : what would you recommend to protect the portfolio from a high inflation due to all the stimulus packages for the pandemia ?, gold (i.e CEF) , or ENB (with physical assets that will go up in value if inflation goes up). Are shares of financial companies (i.e. TD) protected against inflation ?
thanks

Q: IF and that is a big IF we have all missed the bottom on American larger caps should I be now focusing on US small caps and International markets? When I look at SPY and VIG all th money has jumped into American large caps and more or less erased the huge loss and pairs back some of my gains from 2019...so huge collapse gone...for now. I've topped up some VIG but missed on SPY. When I look at US small caps they are lagging and I assume this is due to the higher risk and lower volume, Same story for Europe, International and emerging markets. So my question is should I be shifting to adding IWO, XEF, and VE. I need to add some international content to my portfolio anyways as I am a bit light at 12% international ( developed) and 10% emerging markets. If you agree or don't strongly disagree what ETFs do you recommend right now ( I already hold the one mentioned). I am leaning toward a bit of IWO and larger positions in VE and XEF.

5 year window, high but slowly lowering risk tolerance, Balanced portfolio follower ( shifting slowly to income follower), overweight canada (40%) and US(40%) ,

Q: What are the chances of the current economic turmoil leading to Debt Crisis and / Mortgage crisis.

Q: Hi Peter and Ryan.
I am not surprised that the stock market (especially in the US) rebound nicely. However, I have deep concern that the US is going reopen its Economy quickly. I think they will make the Economy worse if they reopen too early without mitigation plans. (e.g. testing, isolation, tracking for broader population). I also concerned about the magnitude of QE everywhere in the world. I am NOT a fan of gold. I don't believe its value. The bond yield is historical low and next to negative. I feel there is nothing I can invest safely. I would like to place 30% of my retirement fund into something safe with a long term growth that can beat inflation at least. I feel I am stuck with the stock market. What is your opinion?

Q: The VIX is below 40 this morning. Is that a sign that the worst is over or are investors becoming dangerously complacent. How does 5I interpret the recent movements of markets.?
Thank You

Q: I'm hoping you can help me, as I'm struggling to determine where to deploy cash right now.

I've been following your advise to not try and time the bottom, and have been adding to positions every 2 weeks - starting initially with tech stocks that have done well for me over the past 3 years like SHOP, KXS, and CSU.

Now most of my tech stocks have bounced back to record highs, so I'm not sure what to do next.

Should I add to stocks that remain down a lot, but whose business prospects are now more challenging for the foreseeable future (ie. CAE, DOO, MG, LSPD, AW.UN)? Or should I invest in companies that are down a little, but have not performed well for me in the past, but which I continue to hold for diversification (ie. BNS, GUD, PBH, SIS, CCL.B, SJ)?

I have a 25 year time frame, with a higher risk tolerance.