Investment Q&A

Q: Peter; If this smells like,looks like and act likes capitulation- do you think it is ? Thanks. Rod

Q: Hi 5i

I'm far too naive/optimistic to believe we are headed for seriously tough times ahead - just what will it take for markets to settle down a bit and what indicators do you monitor to give a hint of turning a corner ?

Thanks

Q: Without knowing my asset allocation, where would you suggest putting about $50,000 to get away from losing out on inflation with savings accounts. I have free stock and etf trading brokerages at this time. Thank you.

Q: Hello 5i,
I would to build a balance portfolio focusing mostly on solid companies with good dividends and growth in dividends, and having a small portion, say 10%, on growth investments. I do not wish to play the market and aim to withdraw about 5% from my portfolio without dipping into my principal. Would you mind providing me with a list of the major investment sectors, each with a percentage of the whole investment portfolio, that would be able to accomplish this.
Thanks, Roger

Q: Hello Peter,
I have been meaning to get your opinion even before the two-day wild ride and this question is not based on today’s aftermath. And I will speak from both sides of the fence. As usual, I want your perspective.
You typically respond to reader’s questions with a 5-year outlook. However, I think that the 5 yr business plan is outdated except maybe for utilities and commodity producers. And even then, with instantaneous data enabling policy definition, the peak to trough and back for business cycles are short.
High growth companies typically do not have a moat as they rely on transformative technology as the enabler. Today Amazon finds its digital commerce saturating and looks to cloud services for growth. Shopify is looking at vertical integration with logistics and financial services while the world moves towards open-source digital commerce. Game, set, match.
Now I step to the other side of the fence. Probability of a soft landing -very small? The fed cannot control supply but can control demand. Housing, lumber, commodities consumption diminishes just as supply ramps up in an inflationary environment hoping to absorb costs. Discretionary, industrials slow down and drag commodities.
Where am I going? If my thinking is correct, my investment decision should be based on a 2yr or shorter period return. So, between now April 5 and the end of seasonal strength next Feb; is it tech- SHOP and TOI, or Energy and Commodities? What about Gold and Silver? Is it NVDA and CRWD or QCOM and MSFT? And I am not looking to hedge but make portfolio changes, swinging for the fences. Or is it too late for sell in May?
I look forward to your opinion.
Regards

Q: I have a question re portfolio allocation. My current plan is to retire in 5 years. I've been lucky enough to accumulate enough funds for comfortable retirement assuming they can grow enough to offset inflation. What would be your ideal allocation for a pre-retirement investor trying to preserve his/her portfolio from inflation?

My current allocation is 10% energy, 10% health, 20% finance, 10% industrials, 15% technology, 5% telecom, 5% utilities, 5% materials, 5% consumer staples, 10% consumer discretionary, and 5% real estate. In terms of geo allocation, I am 33% Canada, 60% USA, 5% developed, and 2% emerging. My risk tolerance is about 20% meaning that I'd be seriously concerned if lost over 20% of my investments during a calendar year.
Does my allocation seem reasonable to you? Any changes (geo or sectors) that you'd recommend here?

Also, thanks to Biden's sanctions against Russia, I expect we will have high inflation (as well as high rates and possibly recession) at least until mid-2023. Do you recommend any temporary adjustments to portfolio allocation during this period of time?
Thanks for your great service!

Q: I see the VIX is around 35 today (May 2/22). I seem to remember that it was reasonable to consider to start buying again when it hit 40. Your thoughts?

Thanks...Steve

PS...Please remember to ring the bell when we hit bottom.

Q: Hi 5i,

Has there ever been a time (in relatively modern history) that the central banks have actually been raising rates in a recession?

For all the talk the banks have done about raising rates, very little has actually been done.

Thanks!
David

Q: I wish to increase Infrastructure holdings. Currently own BIP -2% [utility sector], WSP - 1%, PHO - 1%.
1. What percentage would you recommend for infrastructure -growth at a reasonable price? 2. What other stocks/ETFs would you add to the mix - agree with J. 3. Others? 4. What percentage would you recommend for each?
thank you

Q: Hi Team,

Something doesn't add up to me:

1. The USD has been exceptionally strong why are commodities also so strong (I think it might be a supply/supply chain issue)?

2. Wholesale inventories are also very high (stocking up due to supply chain fears)?

I feel that the inflation is artificial and once consumers reach the limit they can afford there will be massive demand destruction and disinflation/deflation as inventories are overstocked.

What is going on?

Q: What signs can be identified and where can they be found to illustrate that inflation fears have peaked? It will be obvious to some but I don't want to miss the boat.
Thanks for sharing your experience, wisdom and judgement. We recognize that it has been a tough slog for 5i over the past few months.

Q: Hello!

I'm fully invested in the market (just turned 30) and have a small cash cushion on the side. I'm making 6 figures and have all my RRSPs in indexes and TFSA in growth stocks. Went from $100,000 to $65,000 in the last few months in that acct. I wont be using any of the money I'm investing for 10+ years and I'm not really bothered by the drops. My plan is to keep investing monthly in indexes and your picks for my TFSA and non registered account. I will not be selling. Is this a good plan ? Anything else high-level I should be aware of. PS I have no debt and can save half my income and my job is very secure!

Q: Good morning, I kept almost all my growth stocks thinking I'll ride it down as usual but it's a bit worst than I thought, instead should have trimmed more to the like of NVDA and SHOP and a few others. Down over 12.6% from high so far. Everything seems to being priced for recession. Panic selling has not started yet just a slow drift down. Market could go down considerably more from here. Like 10 to 20% and we won't hear the bell.
Starting to get jittery. Your view on this assumption please?
Thanks for the great service!

Q: Inflation/recession fears are putting pressure on stocks. Rising interest rates, with even more increases to come, are putting pressure on bonds. Looking a few years out, what would be your stock/bond weighting today for a balanced portfolio with the hope of earning 4+% per year? And of your bond weighting, do you still prefer short vs long? Thanks.

Q: When the price of oil tanked, a few fund managers pounded the table. Now that tech is sputtering significantly, do you see multiples of today's prices in the next 18 months?
Specifically, Nvidia, Lightspeed, Topics, Shopify, Google, Facebook, Apple, Amazon, etc.
Is now the time or once the gut-wrenching war subsides or would you stay away?
Thanks.

Q: The Canadian energy sector is taking a hit today (Apr 21) despite oil prices being up. What's behind this? Is it falling in sympathy with general commodities (metals, agriculture), which are also plummeting today?

Q: How would you position your portfolio for an environment of deglobalization? With what has happened over the last few years, do you think the world is moving towards deglobalization?

TIA

Q: Wanting to add some large cap growth stocks to my large cap utility, bank, pipeline,infrastructure, portfolio as new money becomes available. Growth seems to be out of favour so am seeing this as a time to buy with a 2 year window.

You often advise waiting for a declining stock to show some strength, or at least to start building a base before stepping in. I find this difficult on 2 aspects. Technically, how do I determine when to buy a declining stock in this market ? Psychologically, I hold off on buying when the stock declines further, thinking the decline will continue, and if the stock moves upward I get get frustrated believing that I missed the boat . Do former “ favourites “ such as the 2 above lose their shine even when the markets recover ? Which of these would you purchase first ?
Thanks. Derek

Q: Hello Peter, Could you tell me which sectors are doing well in Canada and the USA and how long will they be in favor ie:- 3 months, 6 months 1 year etc.
Thanks.
Ivan

Q: Hi team,

Grateful if you could develop your answer to Chris April 19 and provide your full list of buy-and-forget stocks both in Canada and USA in order of preference and with suggested entry price.

With appreciation,

Jacques ISD