Investment Q&A

Q: Today Jeremy Siegel was asked about the main sources of market returns for investors i.e. multiple expansion, dividends, earnings growth, stock buy backs.

The person asking the question said that over the last 10 years 40% has come from multiple expansion, 15% dividends, most of the balance from earnings growth.

100 years ago 50% came from dividends.

The Q then was “ where will the returns come from in the near future?”

His answer focused on the massive role played by STOCK BUY BACKS.

Finally my Q:

Do you agree with that looking ahead this will be a major source of stock returns ( vs multiple expansion and dividends)?

Is there a filter to ID companies with the highest buybacks( similar to historical data on dividends)?

Thanks.

Q: The dot-com bubble of 1999/2000 exposed investors to risk that legendary investor Sir John Templeton called "temporary insanity" ultimately resulting in Nasdaq's 78% decline from it's high. Just over 20 years later, one could argue, the same sort of "temporary insanity" took hold and we have now seen only a 30% decline with many high-flyers losing 75%+ of their value yet for some reason still are getting recommended. An current example would be Lightspeed. It went public at $19 and ran all the way close to $160, up almost 800%. Now it's around $26, down around 80% from the high. Upstart would be another one.

Solid companies such as Cisco & Qualcomm survived the dot-com crash but never reached the earlier stratospheric valuations again.

Question: What makes this time any different for growth stocks? Or should growth investors really temper their expectations? I can't imagine these and many other surviving companies reaching those lofty levels again....and certainly not in the near future.

Q: Hello:

I would like your opinion, in general, about commodities and their path forward, especially precious metals and oil. At what point are we in the commodity cycle and what is the timeline that you foresee for it? Do you have any specific predictions about oil and metals? Thanks. Flo

Q: Jennifer Gauthier in the Globe presented an article indicating that some of the key drivers of consumer price growth are declining. ie. oil (WTI) drops below $100, wholesale gas price drops 7%, lumber prices are a fraction of their pandemic peak, freight rates on major shipping routes have fallen 40% since September 2021 but remain a lot higher than pre-pandemic rates.

By contrast, Eric Lascelles Chief Econ. At RBC Global Asset Mgmnt. is quoted as saying that inflation has spread to a wide range of products rather than just a few key drivers and he believes that inflation has not yet peaked.

I have a few questions after reading it.

Do you agree with these assessments?

I suppose the way to know that inflation has peaked is to see it drop. Would it be unlikely to rise soon after once the market signals it’s peaked?

At the peak, do you see any sectors rising quicker than others?

Do GIC rates quickly start coming down once the peak is signaled?

Q: Hi all,
I feel right now like playing Sleeping Beauty. To sit tight on my choices, ignore market moves and wake up in few months. Mind you I already sold some stocks for profit or loss, but no rush to buy back. Breathe, enjoy summer, friends and family. All be well. Waiting for the Prince, Denise.

Q: Since I have no interest in fossil energy stocks and don't need Real Estate stocks since I hold properties. Where should I overweight to get a decent weighting in other categories?

Thanks

Yves

Q: I hope the 5i team and readers enjoyed a nice holiday weekend. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, what do you think we’re in for with the markets? I realize prognostications are hard to make (maybe I should say they are easy to make but hard to get right!). I get nervous because I keep seeing more doom and gloom forecasts which reference the tightening of fiscal policy in the US and ongoing inflation. I would appreciate hearing your general comments at this time. Thank you.

Jason

Q: Hi 5i,
There is a lot of doom and gloom around the potential for a recession. Do you feel that the market has already priced this in? I am hesitant to deploy additional capital in advance of the government confirming a recession which could result in another steep decline.

Would the confirmation of a recession happen on a specific date (i.e. at a specific time in the quarter?)

Q: My portfolio is split about 50-50% in C$ and US$. Over the next few years I'm bullish C$ (and A$) and bearish US$ but think shifting to something like 75-25% is risky if I'm wrong.

In this scenario does buying an ETF such as FXA with some funds in my US$ account make sense as a partial hedge against the US$? Any other strategies you could suggest?

Q: It appears that pre-1984 the P/E ratio of the S&P 500 could go below 10 at times (not clear on what measure -looks like trailing earnings), apparently in recessions. But since then, no sub-10's. Is there a reason we may now be in to a new era of P/E norms ie well above 10 and if so for what reasons? If we were to go down there now that would be pushing a 35-50% drop from here, depending on what P/E measure ( and much further if earnings are adjusted down). Also, Josh Brown (CNBC) pointed out this 9-range P/E ratio in recessionary times as in if we get a recession look out below--any comment on his comments?

Q: Can you pls explain why China has only 2% inflation, while the US has 8% inflation!?..if so...why are we all not buying Chinese stocks?

Q: Hi There,
Can you suggest a method where one can estimate the realtime Equity Risk Premium for US market and Canadian Market using ETF's. Can you also give a guide as to what values may cause investors to shift between the risky asset and the safe asset for US and Canadian markets. Thanks

Q: Is the time for buying longer term bonds, like SHY or even TLT coming closer?
Thanks

Q: What do you think about tax-loss selling each of the above companies at this point? If in favour, do you think I should buy 30 day proxies for each, and if so, what companies? Thanks.

Q: Stagflation. How does one preserve capital?

Thanks!

Q: What’s your outlook for SAP and is it good candidate for a defensive hold over the summer months.Maybe any other suggestions in the space…
Thanks.

Q: On a 1 (unlikely) to 10(very likely) scale how much likelihood do you place in recent predictions of people like Michael Burry and Jeremy Grantham that this is just the start of the bear market, and that markets could drop a further 50% from here?

Q: If one has spent years building a diversified portfolio of mainly equities in quality companies and one is reliant on the portfolio for income what is your advice during a bear market? To sell and exit the market one could finally get decent rates on GICs but you would never know when to reenter the market and eventually GIC rates could go down leaving you without enough income. Plus you get dividend tax credit. Does one just close eyes and collect the dividends. I know some fund managers sell but I feel like this is the wrong thing to do. Your insight helping us through these difficult market times is really valuable.

Q: Is there a reason that the vix has currently not spiked more? Does not the current market warrant a good panic? Thanks.

Q: In your latest report (6-17) you state
"the main three forces that we have seen across rising commodities prices are adverse weather conditions (drought), the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and concentrated country risk"
However you failed to address perhaps the most significant cause of inflation which is the Fed money printing.
Why is that?