Investment Q&A

Q: Hi 5i, What are the chances of a recession in Canada in the next 6 months, and what is your reasoning please?

Q: In various question you are asked to give a stocks entry price. My question is what parameters do you look at to calculate a stock’s entry purchase price. Thanks … Cal

Q: Retired, dividend-income investor. I'm just trying to figure out where we are at in this investment cycle. In my opinion we appear to have bottomed and are now starting to see equities on the rise...but then again, it might be a head fake, bear market rally. Time will tell. Then we face the potential recession predictions...soft landing...hard landing?

So, forget all of the investment jargon for a moment and assume we have either bottomed or do indeed retest that bottom and then resume the rise in equities. Then what happens after that, when some kind of a recession possibly hits us. What do equities do? If recessions are usually short lived and markets are looking ahead 6-12 months, what then? Do equities sell off or...?

I am normally an extreme buy-and-hold investor who sets his long term asset allocation and follows it, with very little cash on hand...maybe 2-3%. I will probably do absolutely nothing with however you answer...just trying to understand the market dynamics. Or, there is the chance I might raise my cash up to 5% at the most, but that is market timing. AND, the investment cash usually burns a hole in my pocket and I historically reinvest into some falling knives. So...I usually just watch the action and do nothing besides some minor trims-adds to my core positions to maintain my target asset allocation.

Sorry for the ramble. What's your crystal ball say for the next year or so?
Thanks for your help...much appreciated...Steve

Q: I’m generally sold on the US and Canadian markets for the long term due to historical superior returns and risk versus Europe , EM and Asia and for the most part a better environment for doing business. What would be your suggested allocation between Canada and US outside of non registered accounts ( this I have 100% Canada due to high quality names and tax advantages).
Thank-you.

Q: For a TFSA with a growth tilt, what would be the portfolio percentage invested in stocks related to Balance, Growth, Income and Yield, aka REITS?.......Many thanks for the suggestion.........Tom

Q: With the Canadian trading so low, do I assume correctly that this would not be a good time to buy US stocks? Does the same assumption apply to hedged investments such as ETFs and CDRs? Thank you.

Q: With the upcoming balance sheet tightening by the fed does it make sense to have dry powder in the event that markets drop again significantly. If one is fully invested what percentage of cash would you usually recommend? Thanks. Shyam

Q: Hi

What is 5i's take on your first Sentiment Survey - anything surprise you particularly?

Thanks

Q: Hi, you mention short interest from time to time. Using MTTR as an example, you say that short interest is very high at 15%. I assume this is a negative as there are a lot of shorts (or shares short) that want to drive the price down. However, some view this as a positive as any good news can force all the shorts to cover. There are also different views on days to cover. MTTR shows 6 days. Some view higher numbers, such as 10, as positive as it means there could be a sustained rally if the shorts have to spread out their buying over a longer period rather than a quick spike.

What short interest levels and number of days to cover do you view as being positive or negative influences on a stock price?
Thanks

Q: Greetings,

Some people believe Mr Rosenberg gets out of bed from the wrong side on more days than not but his negative market reasoning seem very fair to me .... or not?

Are you able to comment on his newspaper article note of caution?

What is your gut feeling on what the markets may do over the next 6 months?

What do you think the chances are of testing the recent 52 week lows?

Thank you !

Q: Can I get the fundamentals on these companies.

How do you see them performing in an inflationary environment.

Q: I'm down on these stocks, what are your thoughts currently and prospects going forward? Buy, sell, hold, add? They've all become less than 1.5% positions. Thanks!

MED, NVEI, AC, LUN, EGLX, U, AT

Q: what are some good things to keep in mind that help you keep things in perspective regarding the fluctuations and negativity.. for me its having a rational solid response to a quarterly earnings thanks for the help

Q: So many of your recent answers to member questions have statements like:

"will need a better market environment to perform better"

"it will need a 'good' market to perform"

"A better market will see this stock rise sharply"

"it is still an expensive stock and will only work well if the market co-operates"

It is almost like you are blaming the market for the poor performance of so many stocks. Like how companies blame the weather for their poor results -- but their competitors had the same weather.

So, what do you mean by a "better market"? What has to happen to be in a better market environment?

Paul

Q: If you had the opportunity to invest in a couple of energy plays like ATH or TVE versus the Consumer Defensive/Cyclical like L or ATD at this recessionary like time, where would you put your money?? Dennis

Q: Is there a China bank crisis looming or already here. What is your opinion on the effect on the world economy, commodities, and stocks. Thanks for your insights.

Q: As we progress through the dog days of summer and possibly approach the winter of our discontent, the number of questions being asked of 5i seem to be lower at this time. Is this a summertime normal occurrence? Otherwise, is it possible that the number of questions asked day by day could be a useful metric of investor interest in the stock markets. If so, then as the number of questions increase, could this indicate that the market is in the road to recovery. This would not be a “bet the farm” metric but would appreciate your thoughts on the matter.
Thanks for your valuable service.
Cyril

Q: With growth and upside being the case for buying stocks with no earnings and having a lot of them losing 80% in value over buying a stock with good earnings and less growth, is it the same story now for investors to buy the growth stocks that they may be down 80% and hope that the stock can come back when the market gets overpriced again, or lower your greed and be happy with a 10% yearly return.
Thanks again

Q: I get raising the interest rates to stem inflation. However most economists are signaling a good chance of a recession or slowdown by year end. That obviously would call for lowering the rates. Is this scenario likely.

Q: In another question, you answered: "We believe that inflation will moderate into 2023, interest rate hikes will be paused sometime in Q3 or Q4 of this year, and a recession to last until Q1 or Q2 of 2023."

With this expectation, what are some good sectors and stocks (trading on the TSX) to be in in this environment?