Investment Q&A

Q: Hello Peter,

A couple of months ago you were of the opinion that interest rates were near peak or peaked and it has been proven to be correct. The treasury yields however have continued to rise and the market has been selling off during the period. I have a couple of questions, primarily for the US market but would like your opinion for the Canadian market as well.
Do you think there is further downside or are we close to the bottom? When looking for the rebound when it happens, which sectors would you avoid and where would you lean for a faster recovery? Is your answer different for the Canadian market?
It is often said the time to buy is when there is blood on the street. Are we there yet? I will need to sell sectors to raise cash and hope your answer provides some pointers on what direction I should be looking at.
As usual I appreciate your insight.
Regards.

Q: Markets have been in a steady decline now for some time. TSX is now below 18875 and continues to drop. Personally I feel the Bank of Canada has successfully created the fear needed coupled with the fact that we are probably already in a recession. What is 5i feeling regarding capitulation and this market turning around.
Thanks Rick

Q: What is your thinking as regards the escalating deficits the USA is allowing to occur ?

Q: Hi 5i

I'm asking for a gut feel response, does this "fear" train seem any more concerning than at other times previously in your career going back to the mid 80's (I think this is right) ?
>>> "when the market 'settles down' but right now investors are back on the 'fear' train and worried about many things"

I believe interest rates are closer to "normal" today rather than our recent history but can understand many younger investors having a recency bias. (Even if I was too young to invest during those peaking 15-20% days of old)

Maybe I'm just a perpetual optimist.

Thanks

Q: Do you think it is a good time to add bonds? It seems the most likely scenario's (slow growth with moderating inflation like now, or full blown recession) will be more favourable to bond investors than equity holders. What is the asset mix you would employ and do you favour longer bonds today? Thanks.

Q: Hi group...If we assume the conflict in middle east is going to escalate. What are you thoughts on a strategy to take advantage ...I am thinking we might test last Oct lows...What your thoughts on this?.
I have $100,000) cash waiting to invest at some point... do you suggest entry soon? and if so what is your top 10 picks regardless of sector or market. Thanks for your insight

Q: I'm looking to generate a reliable source of income to support my family's essential expenses over the next 5-10 years. Ideally, I want a mix of investment products with a high level of principal security (around 80%) while allowing for some capital risk (around 20%). What investment options would you suggest? Should I stick with GICs, or are there more creative approaches available?

Q: Now that the yield curve inversion spread has narrowed substantially from over 1.00 to about.20, is this a good sign for the mkt overall or a bad one? Thanks

Q: If you were in possession of a crystal ball, what do you think it would tell you if asked: "When will growth stocks return to favour and revert to the highest performing market segment?"

Q: How much more downside risk would there be in Canadian banks and utilities in the next year?

Thanks
Brian

Q: For some time 5i (and others) have noted that small cap valuations are low on a historic basis, and I also believe that you have commented that small caps often lead in a market turnaround? I really like a good "reversion to the mean" play, but what are the conditions for that to happen? I have to think inflation and higher interest rates are disproportionate headwinds for smaller companies vs large caps. What should one look for before buying a small cap ETF, or just forget the timing and figure you'll be happy in a few years one way or another? Thanks for your thoughts.

Q: This question is about interest rates and their effect on dividend paying stocks and tech stocks. Most people talk about rates going up or down but not if they stay where they are now. As a senior whose memory stretches back to the 70’s and beyond, these rates seem rather normal to me. A recent article by Howard Marks of Oaktree Investments ( a unit of Brookfield ) quotes him saying he believes that rates will not decline and will be staying around their current level for quite a while. If so, how would the dividend paying stocks ( banks, utilities, telecoms, reits, ) and the tech stocks react ? Thanks. Derek.

Q: Isreal/Hamas war.What is the impact on the US & Canadianstock markets,canadian banks,oil stocks and REIT?Will the war spread to involve other Middle East countries?,If it does,then what is the impact on the the US & Canadian stock markets,Can banks,oil stocks & Reit? Is it prudent to reduce stocks? Txs for U usual great services & views

Q: I am closing down a corporation which holds an investment account based loosely on the balanced equity fund. To close the corp. this year, I need to liquidate all the holdings by year end. The performance of the market in the last few months has made me somewhat reluctant to do this. Do you see hope for some rebound by year end or should I simply liquidate at the earliest convenience and forget about market noise?

Thanks for your advice.

Q: In Dec 2022, you answered Ron's question "Is the current inverted yield curve predicting a recession in the next 6 months?"
Can you answer it again almost 1 year later?
What percentage of time does a recession happen when the yield curve inverts, and on average how long does the recession last?
Would you move your money out of high risk investments at this point anticipating a recession?

Q: Everyone, if you can guesstimate for the remaining year were do you see the Nasdaq: up down; %. I see it up 10 to 15%. Clayton

Q: Hello there : many analysts are very bullish about AC, if not for a long term investment but more like a momentun investment would you agree to buy it now. thanks

Q: I am looking for large or mid cap cash rich companies that seem to be punished because the rest of the market is down.

Q: What is your top 6 picks regardless if Cad / US based / sectors. Also supply entry price and brief explanation on why you like your picks...Thanks for your help with this.

Q: There’s a widely held belief that a recession will occur fairly soon which would see the US ten year yield decline, but there are also bond experts now predicting that the yield could rise above 13% within seven years. If that happens, does it mean that dividend paying “bond proxies” like pipelines, telcos and utilities will just keep drifting lower? Does the same apply to mining companies? What’s the investment thesis for such assets in a world of rising yields?